Elections Serious Question: Why are Biden and Trump Going to win the Primaries?

[GearSolidMetal]

What demographics do you think he won over versus 2016 exactly? There are a handful, but most of it was effectively squeezing blood from tapped out demographics. My point is to assume a trend from a sample size of two is a huge stretch.

I'm not here to get in a long and drawn out argument.

If you'd like respond to my initial post, please do so.

 

[SakurabasEar]

Part if the problem is that in recent years, more Americans have realized the swamp for what it is. So there is such a divide now, that we're fitting to see a three way fight between a populist and establishment republican on the right, and then a somewhat "moderate" democrat on the left for a while. Like in 2020. The democrats cannot run many people for this reason. Gavin is slippery enough to fit the description, albeit barely. And maybe Michelle Obama, but she doesn't want it allegedly

 

[Bacco]

When I look at Trump dominating the primaries so far I don’t really get it. I understand that Trump is extremely popular with his ride or die base, but I’m surprised that there doesn’t seem to be a majority or even sizeable minority of Republican voters that don’t want him and would rather have any other Republican governor, Senator or Congressman running.

As italian, made basically same point here like 2-3 weeks ago lol

I fully understand why an american in 2024 may want to switch to republican side, the narrative of recent years has been Netflix levels of retarded

But still, can't imagine to WANT Trump as president

To make parallel with my country feels would be like vote a Berlusconi but twice as ridicolous and with half of the smarts

Feels bizzare af they can't find anybody with more charisma and brain, one would guess it to be easy challenge lol

 

[D3thr0n3d K1ng]

Because they are the safe picks for the oligarch class.

 

[SKYNET]

I’m Canadian.

And a lot of people seriously don't get why someone would vote for this waste of skin

The feeling's mutual TS

 

[Jack V Savage]

Part if the problem is that in recent years, more Americans have realized the swamp for what it is.

I don't know what that means, exactly, but it sounds incongruent with having an incumbent (who is a political veteran) going against a former president (who is by far the most corrupt president we've ever had).

I think the results generally cut strongly against the populist narrative. Parties have little to no control over who gets nominated, and the public wants those two.

I'd also add that people generally should pay a lot more attention to what's going on around the world to understand what's happening specifically in America. Post-pandemic, incumbents around the world have been very unpopular, which kind of suggests a global effect (just as inflation does, and recoveries). People have noted that the U.S.'s unusually strong economic performance (both in terms of growth and in terms of bringing inflation down) hasn't seemed to benefit Biden, but when you take that global effect into account, the story looks a little different. Similarly, people have wondered why Trump has done surprisingly well, but that looks different with more context--like, the fundamentals were good for a Republican in 2016, and while he surprisingly eked out a win, he did worse than down-ballot Republicans and almost certainly did worse than a normal Republican (who wasn't so corrupt or incompetent) would have done. I think there's no doubt at all that Haley would do much, much better in a general election in 2020, though Trump still has a hold on a big-enough portion of the base that he's going to win the primary.

 

[fedorthegoat777]

Trump: Still very powerful, though he now has even more enemies in his own party. Lost fans. He is also a tough person to beat, he turns people against you. An example is DeSantis. That guy was very popular, after running against Trump, a lot of people don't like him. While Trump lost a lot of fans, he still has die hard loyalists. It is a little cult like.

Biden: He has the Presidency. That should be a lock. I don't think the Dems are running him again. I think they are going to pull in Gavin or someone else. They let him speak the other day to embarrass him.

3rd party: While way behind, RFK is doing good for a 3rd party candidate.

 

[Law Talkin’ Guy]

And a lot of people seriously don't get why someone would vote for this waste of skin

The feeling's mutual TS

Well that’s where I was going with my OP, the fact that we DON’T have primaries in Canada, so once a person becomes leader of their party they’re entrenched and super hard to get rid of. Leaders typically only leave if their party loses the election. As long as Canadians keep voting in the liberals we’re stuck with Trudeau. In Canada we also don’t have a separate vote for the executive branch of government. We also don’t have term limits either, which is why Trudeau’s father was Prime Minister for like 15+ years when it was his time.

 

[Fergelmince]

Well that’s where I was going with my OP, the fact that we DON’T have primaries in Canada, so once a person becomes leader of their party they’re entrenched and super hard to get rid of. Leaders typically only leave if their party loses the election. As long as Canadians keep voting in the liberals we’re stuck with Trudeau. In Canada we also don’t have a separate vote for the executive branch of government. We also don’t have term limits either, which is why Trudeau’s father was Prime Minister for like 15+ years when it was his time.

Do you have an un-elected Federal bureaucracy that either controls the elected officials or acts as their boot stampers if they view a political opponent as a threat?

 

[avenue94]

Okay...THEORETICALLY betting on politics and line movement would have more relevance due to bettors also being voters (vs bettors just being spectators when it comes to sports)

Knowledge of elections and voting is incredibly more complicated than sports betting.

But to get the coverage you're talking about, they are taking accurate probabilities into account too.

OK, then where in the several decades of research on betting and polling accuracy is the evidence of betting being more accurate than polling and other methods?

 

[avenue94]

I'm not here to get in a long and drawn out argument.

If you'd like respond to my initial post, please do so.

1. It's a huge stretch to say Biden was the DNC pick early in the primaries.
2. Focusing on Trump picking up more votes in 2020 is missing the forest for the trees. In relative terms (aka winning the election), he lost a lot of ground.
3. The main reason Trump is still a viable candidate is due to a variety of factors, with one of the chief ones being how weak American parties are. In a parliamentary system, a party most of the time drops someone like Trump long before 2024.

 

[Law Talkin’ Guy]

Do you have an un-elected Federal bureaucracy that either controls the elected officials or acts as their boot stampers if they view a political opponent as a threat?

Probably.

 

[Loiosh]

That proves he won over many people with his first term

No, it doesn't.

Do you really think Biden is more popular than Obama or ran a better campaign?

2020 had a huge number of voters.

 

[avenue94]

No, it doesn't.

Do you really think Biden is more popular than Obama or ran a better campaign?

2020 had a huge number of voters.

Saying Trump gained more support in 2020 is ignoring the FPTP nature of American politics. Trump's like a video game powerup that boosts one stat to a small degree and absolutely destroys ever other.

 

[SKYNET]

we DON’T have primaries in Canada
we don’t have a separate vote for the executive branch of government
We don’t have term limits

 

[Van Daz]

I want to preface this post by saying the question asked in the thread title is not rhetorical. I’m not American, I’m Canadian. We do not have anything equivalent to primaries here for choosing the leaders of our political parties. If a Canadian wants a say in who will lead their party (and with it, the ability to have a say in who will be prime minister if the party wins the election) then they have pay to join a party, go to a party convention and then vote in a leadership race, which depending on a political party’s bylaws can only come every once in a very long time.

So as an outsider looking in, the primaries look amazing - the ability for all Americans to have a say in who will be their party’s nominee in the general election for president. So given this amazing opportunity and privilege, why is it a veritable certainty that Biden and Trump are going to be their party’s respective nominees again?

When I look at Trump dominating the primaries so far I don’t really get it. I understand that Trump is extremely popular with his ride or die base, but I’m surprised that there doesn’t seem to be a majority or even sizeable minority of Republican voters that don’t want him and would rather have any other Republican governor, Senator or Congressman running. Leaving aside the issue as to whether or not Trump was a good president or not during his first term it just strikes me as odd that people would think that perhaps someone else without all the baggage might be preferable. Yet Trump is slaughtering his opponents without even lifting a finger, having sat out all the debates. Like am I just underestimating how many republicans are actually all-in on Trump, or is it a case of only Trump’s supporters even participating in primary voting.

Now, as for Biden, I never understood how he got the nomination in 2020 in the first place, but why is he seemingly not being challenged by anyone else from the party this time? His popularity isn’t good, and the guy’s cognitive ability is frankly terrifying in my opinion. It would seem to be that he should be easily beatable by some other democrat politicians, but he doesn’t seem to be facing any major challenges.

So yeah, as a non-American I don’t understand how four years later it’s a veritable certainty that Americans are going to be left with only these two awful candidates to vote for in November. How or why did we get here?

They are each polling the strongest for their parties, so best options number wise for each party.

 

[mkess101]

Knowledge of elections and voting is incredibly more complicated than sports betting.

OK, then where in the several decades of research on betting and polling accuracy is the evidence of betting being more accurate than polling and other methods?

Huh? Polling has Trump ahead too...but aside from that the books have to be right more than wrong to even exist. Like...if they're not setting lines correctly, they'll lose $ and they won't even offer lines on something if they can't consistently make money on it.

The daily fantasy site Stat Hero recently stopped offering MMA lines. I was making money every card because whoever they had setting them didn't know what they were doing. So, no more UFC on that site. If books weren't accurate with lines on elections, they wouldn't offer them. Because they'd lose money.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Biden: He has the Presidency. That should be a lock. I don't think the Dems are running him again. I think they are going to pull in Gavin or someone else. They let him speak the other day to embarrass him.

Do you want to do a friendly sig bet on that? I'd put Biden's chances of being the nominee at around 97%, and he did extremely well in the speech (*way* better than Trump has ever done!).

 

[Andy Capp]

Well even if it’s abnormal to challenge an incumbent in a primary, given his current approval ratings and concerns about his age you’d think Biden would be the exception for democrats to worry about his ability to do the job for four more years, till he’s 86.

That's all very reasonable and so on, but this is the US you're taking about. Donald full immunity dictator on day one Trump is a leading candidate for President. They're full on nuts. They just won't go against the guy who won in the last election in the face of the guy he beat being the other candidate.

 

[Andy Capp]

Trump: Still very powerful, though he now has even more enemies in his own party. Lost fans. He is also a tough person to beat, he turns people against you. An example is DeSantis. That guy was very popular, after running against Trump, a lot of people don't like him. While Trump lost a lot of fans, he still has die hard loyalists. It is a little cult like.

Biden: He has the Presidency. That should be a lock. I don't think the Dems are running him again. I think they are going to pull in Gavin or someone else. They let him speak the other day to embarrass him.

3rd party: While way behind, RFK is doing good for a 3rd party candidate.

LMAO @ a tough person to beat.

"Donald Trump is the only person not from Delaware to lose an election to Joe Biden" --Bill Barr