First, I think Stipe should fight Jon Jones
before he fights Ngannou.
Your analysis is divine. I couldn't agree more. Thank you.
Any "
Champion vs. Champion" fight should take precedence over any "Champion vs.
already-beaten contender." Period, there is nothing to debate.
Beating Jones would be a significant achievement for Stipe; beating Ngannou would be a repeat of what he has already done.
That said, Stipe is a much more dangerous opponent "for Jones" than Jones is for Stipe. The truth is, Jones isn't really dangerous at all for Miocic:
- In his last 9 fights, spanning the last 7 years (Sept, 2013 to today), Jones only has 2 finishes. (22%)
- In his last 13 fights, spanning the last 7 years (Jun, 2013 to today), Stipe has 8 finishes. (62%)
When you further consider the fact
Stipe is facing much bigger men ... while a
majority of Jones' opponents are bloated middleweights,
moving up ... the difference in
proven power is even more staggering (pardon the pun
).
Looking at the four fighters who have given Jones the most trouble: 1) Gustafsson, 2) Cormier, 3) Santos, and 4) Reyes.
Two of these fighters were Jones' size (Gustafsson and Reyes), while two of them were
smaller.
Jon Jones has never faced an authentically-bigger man ...
and he struggles with anyone his own size (let alone a legit, Champion-caliber BIGGER man).
- Keep in mind. Jon Jones is 6'4", and leans-out to a ripped 205.
- Meanwhile, Stipe Miocic is 6'4", and leans out to a ripped 233.
This means Jones, at his leanest-BEST is
28 lb. of lean muscle mass smaller than Stipe, while having the same height.
- While Stipe does have a KO loss to Cormier, I think we can all agree it was a fluke at this point.
- If you compare the "other two" Cormier fights, each won a decision and got a KO.
Note: Cormier is a special fighter and is atypical for a short, portly individual. Corier's
"fireplug" stature makes him particularly difficult for anyone to deal with, and only Jones and Stipe were able to conquer him. Cormier has beaten everybody else. (Jones' KO was also overturned for steroid abuse; Stipe's was not.)
Considering the struggles with
the only other two individuals Jones has faced "his size" (Gustafsson and Reyes) ... who are frail and light, compared to Stipe ... Jones will find Stipe's TRULY solid frame too much to deal with.
If Jon Jones was worried about "being hit by" the laughable Reyes (who is soft, weak, and flimsy compared to Stipe), or Thiago Santos (a bloated middleweight, on 2 bad knees, 2" shorter than he), Jones will
really have something to worry about facing a LEGIT (not fatass) 6'4", lean 233 monster ... who is quick, who is equally-skilled, and who hits harder than anyone Jones has ever faced.
Even Dominick Reyes looked "a little pudgy" at 205, and was clearly nervous, whereas Stipe is a true alpha-male,
ripped at 6'4", 233 lb, and is not a nervous/novice or "still-growing boy."
My best guess is, being highly intelligent, Jon Jones will
not have the balls ever to face Stipe, because he has the fight IQ to assess all of the above himself, in private. (Nonetheless, Jones will continue to "tweet on Twitter," but I very much doubt he has the cajones to actually sign the contract.)
In case I am wrong on this part, I will
not be wrong on the most important part, and that is Stipe Miocic will dominate Jon Jones, overpower Jon Jones, and out-punch & out-will Jon Jones, to get a mid-to-late-round stoppage. Stipe will dominate Jones standing up, or on the ground, as Jones is actually a thin, flimsy man by comparison at heavyweight.
I hope we all get to see this happen.
