Economy stonks v27: banks, the kings of vega

[N13]

Be careful with something like that. The fine print of those sorts of funds have important details people often overlook:


If the Fund is successful in meeting its investment objective, it should gain approximately two times as much as the Index loses when the Index falls on a given day. Conversely, it should lose approximately two times as much as the Index gains when the Index rises on a given day. The Fund does not seek to achieve two times the inverse (-2x) of the daily performance of the Index (the “Daily Target”) for any period other than a day.

While the Fund has a daily investment objective, you may hold Fund shares for longer than one day if you believe doing so is consistent with your goals and risk tolerance. If you hold fund shares for any period other than a day, it is important for you to understand that over your holding period:

Your return may be higher or lower than the Daily Target, and this difference may be significant.

Factors that contribute to returns that are worse than the Daily Target include smaller Index gains or losses and higher Index volatility, as well as longer holding periods when these factors apply.

Factors that contribute to returns that are better than the Daily Target include larger Index gains or losses and lower Index volatility, as well as longer holding periods when these factors apply.

The more extreme these factors are, and the more they occur together, the more your return will tend to deviate from the Daily Target.

If you track the movement of the 10 and 20 year bonds, you'll see a pattern.
Since nobody is buying long terms US bonds, the rate will go up.
It's a hedge and you don't need to buy options.

 

[N13]

Be careful with something like that. The fine print of those sorts of funds have important details people often overlook:


If the Fund is successful in meeting its investment objective, it should gain approximately two times as much as the Index loses when the Index falls on a given day. Conversely, it should lose approximately two times as much as the Index gains when the Index rises on a given day. The Fund does not seek to achieve two times the inverse (-2x) of the daily performance of the Index (the “Daily Target”) for any period other than a day.

While the Fund has a daily investment objective, you may hold Fund shares for longer than one day if you believe doing so is consistent with your goals and risk tolerance. If you hold fund shares for any period other than a day, it is important for you to understand that over your holding period:

Your return may be higher or lower than the Daily Target, and this difference may be significant.

Factors that contribute to returns that are worse than the Daily Target include smaller Index gains or losses and higher Index volatility, as well as longer holding periods when these factors apply.

Factors that contribute to returns that are better than the Daily Target include larger Index gains or losses and lower Index volatility, as well as longer holding periods when these factors apply.

The more extreme these factors are, and the more they occur together, the more your return will tend to deviate from the Daily Target.

Today the ten year bond dropped by 7 basis points. Who bought those bonds?

You could buy a 10 year treasury with a return of 4.18%. You could buy a 3 month treasury with a 5.38% return.

This tells me that the Federal Reserve is buying the 10 year bonds to prop up the market.

 

[toasty]

I'ma pump my Kraken some more
(yeah I know what that sounds like a euphemism for)

Kraken Robotics Signs Cooperative Research & Development Agreement with US Navy for next Generation Synthetic Aperture Sonar (SAS) Beamforming​

Now this in and of itself this is no big deal. They've had others CRDA's with the US Navy starting with one in 2012. But it is just one more step in this little bitty underwater robotic company tapping into that sweet sweet government pork barrel and becoming one of the hogs fattening up on national defense spending.

And it hit what I believe is an all time high of .76C last week.

So if you have 3 quarters and a penny and maybe a 3rd of a penny that you put on the railroad tracks and it got run over and is now in multiple pieces, cause it is probably .7603, you could do worse than putting it in this baby monster who is slowly growing up before my eyes.

I'm in at .33 and happily watching them deepen ties with various NATO navies. I should have been in at .25 but then again I should have been in aapl in 1995 instead of 2015. Fuck you EFCX and your stupid zinc air batteries

Good luck to all

 

[toasty]

Anyone following DWAC's merger?

To show off how I know nothing of price movement, this weekend i posted about how DWAC was basically doomed from lawsuits and poor Truth Social Media numbers

It is up 9% as I type this.

anyone playing it, I want to short it but fear holds my paws back from pushing in those carrot chips

 

[Gas121]

Anyone following DWAC's merger?

To show off how I know nothing of price movement, this weekend i posted about how DWAC was basically doomed from lawsuits and poor Truth Social Media numbers

It is up 9% as I type this.

anyone playing it, I want to short it but fear holds my paws back from pushing in those carrot chips

DWAC sucks bad but I wouldn't be shorting yet, might squeeze with action picking up. This dumpster will likely top out soon though. If Dump loses this tanks bigly.

 

[44nutman]

Anyone following DWAC's merger?

To show off how I know nothing of price movement, this weekend i posted about how DWAC was basically doomed from lawsuits and poor Truth Social Media numbers

It is up 9% as I type this.

anyone playing it, I want to short it but fear holds my paws back from pushing in those carrot chips

I have thought about shorting forever but the problem is 2 fold Trump fan boys are irrational investors and the contracts are fucking expensive. Not worth the risk.
It is a social Media company, that generates little revenue with a 1.73 billion market cap.

 

[HOLA]

GOOGL still going down and I'm still adding. Added more at $133.21 yesterday.

AAPL getting a nice little haircut too. Down from around $200 to $170. I haven't added anymore yet. If it is hits $160 I'll start adding slightly, increasing if it keeps declining.

In other news:

U.S. defense contractor Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) has made a non-binding offer to acquire all common stock of satellite maker Terran Orbital (NYSE:LLAP) that it does not own for $1/share, according to a regulatory filing published on Friday.

Shares of Terran (LLAP) rose more than 3% to $1.11 after hours. The company has a market capitalization of about $185M.

Lockheed (LMT) already owns a 28.3% stake in Terran (LLAP), and the company is a major customer in terms of revenue for the satellite maker.

"Terran (LLAP) represents an attractive opportunity for Lockheed Martin (LMT), and we are treating the potential Transaction as a strategic priority. Terran’s superior capabilities and business momentum align with one of Lockheed Martin Space’s strategic growth priorities and the Transaction would accelerate that strategy," Scott Weiner, Lockheed's (LMT) VP of corporate development, said in a letter to Terran (LLAP).

The non-binding proposal consists of a $1/share cash offer for Terran's (LLAP) outstanding common stock, over $70M in cash for LLAP's outstanding warrants and assumption of $313M of LLAP's existing debt.

"Lockheed Martin (LMT) continues to be Terran's (LLAP) largest revenue generating customer accounting for the majority of the backlog ... we are confident that we will continue to be the largest revenue generating customer for Terran (LLAP) for the foreseeable future. As a result, we are uniquely qualified to assess the Company’s near and long-term outlook and accurately ascribe fair value to Terran’s (LLAP) business for all its stakeholders," LMT's letter said.

Boca Raton, Fla.-based Terran (LLAP) manufactures nanosatellites and microsatellites for commercial and government organizations, and also provides satellite solutions. The company last month came to an agreement with activist investors who had been pushing for the start of a strategic review and the ouster of Terran's (LLAP) top boss.

The Wall Street Journal last December said that Terran (LLAP) was looking to sell itself. The company's CEO had later denied the report, though the satellite maker had confirmed that it had started a formal review of strategic alternatives.

.....

Interesting acquisition. Hopefully this one doesn't get blocked like Aerojet Rocketdyne was.

 

[toasty]

anyone in PLTR (Palantir)?

Nice run up has put me with a small gain after timing my entry horribly on its first big spike a few years ago. Thought about sell and put $'s into safe boring index fund like position but it is a play money position and really small so I'm going to let it ride hoping to catch a huge wave. Made the break even and get out mistake with AMD, strangely also with a $24 entry price, and have missed out on the massive gains ever since.

If anyone has thought or experience with PLTR I'd like to hear your thoughts.

PLTR just announced another big government (ARMY) contract but the real news might be on the commercial side growth-

"Speakers include 20+ newly-announced customers and partners — including Lennar, General Mills, Lowe’s, Cone Health, CSX, OpenAI, CAZ Investments, Parts Town, 8VC, and many others.

AIPCon will be accessible via live stream on Thursday, March 7, 2024."

Those are some big names signing up

 

[Michaelangelo]

Just follow Pelosi’s investments to make some gains

 

[HOLA]

Bank trouble again...

NYCB shares rebound after troubled regional bank announces $1 billion capital raise

The regional bank stock has been under pressure this year after disclosing potential losses in its loan book.

www.cnbc.com

Shares of struggling New York Community Bancorp. fell more than 40% on Wednesday amid reports that the regional bank is seeking a cash infusion.

Reuters and the Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that the bank was looking to outside investors for cash to shore up its balance sheet. NYCB did not immediately respond to a request for comment from CNBC.

The stock was halted for news pending when shares were down 42%.

Shares of the bank were already down sharply on the day before the reports. The stock is now below $2 per share after starting the year above $10.

A cash infusion would be the latest development in a turbulent start to the year for NYCB. The bank disclosed in late January that it was dramatically raising the allowance for potential loan losses on its balance sheet. That was followed shortly by Moody’s Investors Service downgrading the bank’s credit rating to junk status, and NYCB naming former Flagstar bank CEO Alessandro DiNello as executive chairman.

Then last week, NYCB disclosed that it had “identified material weaknesses in the company’s internal controls related to internal loan review” and announced that DiNello was taking over as CEO.

The questions surrounding NYCB are reminiscent of those that swirled around Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic before all three failed in the spring of 2023. They were among several regional banks that struggled as higher interest rates pushed down the value of older Treasury holdings and led some depositors to move their accounts elsewhere.

With the U.S. economy continuing to show surprising strength and inflation still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, traders have been dialing back expectations for interest rate cuts this year. Those higher rates could keep pressure on the banks themselves and on commercial real estate, which is a key business for NYCB and many other regional lenders.
.....

Looks like they just updated 9 min ago...

Struggling regional lender New York Community Bancorp announced a $1 billion capital raise and a leadership shake-up on Wednesday, headlined by former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, leading to a sharp rebound for its stock.

NYCB has agreed to a deal with several investment firms including Mnuchin’s Liberty Strategic Capital, Hudson Bay Capital and Reverence Capital Partners for more than $1 billion in exchange for equity in the regional bank, according to a press release Wednesday afternoon.

 

[44nutman]

I am mostly a 60% buy and hold guy .
I take some chances on some penny stocks if I like the tech or drug, but they are usually on 1k plays, little downside with lots of reward. Right now waiting on $ARCX to get fucking approved, but they have been making big moves the last week, and still down. Play options also. I shorted GE like an idiot, even though I own GE and got crushed, that was a chart play, and thought it was heading back down, but instead it went over its typical resistance the last 6 months. Last 2 winners were calls on $PENN and $SPDR. Flipped $SPDR for 20% in a day.

Right now $ML saved me from a huge loss, like the kind of loss I would retired a year later kind of loss. I believed in the company so kept buying the dip, so ended up with a shit load of shares and was down like 60%(even after buying the dip and after a 30-1 reverse split)
and wife was giving me a lot of shit because it was a lot of money in the red. Now up about 5% and still not selling. Their subscriptions have increased every quarter for 2 years. They should finally turn a profit in the next 2 quarters and volume has been way up, so that is also a sign to hold until I see what it does when it turns a profit.
Still got my $AMZN at $91 a share after you posted about them. It was not something on my radar.
Too bad Brackis is gone. Next year I will sell my $PCG which I am up 65%(as of Friday), because I dont want to pay taxes on it this year. After CA protected them in court, not too worried about it going to far down. I was going to wait for it to get to $20, but $18 seems to be the resistance for the last 6 months, and want the money for other investments.

I will get more active in this section, but will no longer post any of my option plays, because they only hit when I dont post them on here. As a sports bettor as well, I get superstitious with plays involving my money.

I meant to add. I am eyeing $RBLX but not a buyer until $36-$36.50. Only thing on my radar for right now. Between my kids, nieces, and kids of my cousins, I will probably spend a couple hundo on gift cards for Christmas.

MoneyLion $ML with another earnings beat and revenue up.
I made a huge bet on this company and it is paying off. It is almost a 1 bagger for me. Still not selling, because they are close to turning a profit. If they keep doing what they are doing, I can retire like 2 years early.
Also that $ARCX I posted here has changed their name to $TLPH. I hate small cap Pharma's. I never learn my lesson.

 

[William Munny]

I've been riding the NVIDIA train since last year. Is it time to sell? it keeps going up and up.

 

[44nutman]

I've been riding the NVIDIA train since last year. Is it time to sell? it keeps going up and up.

Something I learned a long time ago. You will never buy at the absolute low nor sell at the absolute high, so don't beat yourself up over that. What I do is when I buy I am looking for a certain entry price. When I sell I look for a certain percentage or number in which to sell, same with an entry price. I have missed some profits because it did not get my entry, also lost profits by selling too soon. If I pass the sell number, then I might bump it up, but if is passes that number and then drops like 5% below it then I will sell it. I am dealing with that right now with $Tree. $40 was my number, it passed it then is now hanging out in the $39+/- range.
I used to hold shit way too long to hit homeruns, but you can still score a bunch of runs hitting singles.
The end of the day, you play the market to make money, and profit is a good thing.
Back to NVIDIA, I have not researched it too much. Do you think it will have more room to run, if so keep it. Study their earnings. Do they think the will increase revenue, profit, etc?

 

[lifelessheap]

I've been riding the NVIDIA train since last year. Is it time to sell? it keeps going up and up.

Set a trailing stop loss at a percentage you don't mind losing?

AI is currently putting tens of thousands out of work and it will never stop. Soon to be hundreds of thousands and millions. I will hold my small position for years.

 

[William Munny]

Something I learned a long time ago. You will never buy at the absolute low nor sell at the absolute high, so don't beat yourself up over that. What I do is when I buy I am looking for a certain entry price. When I sell I look for a certain percentage or number in which to sell, same with an entry price. I have missed some profits because it did not get my entry, also lost profits by selling too soon. If I pass the sell number, then I might bump it up, but if is passes that number and then drops like 5% below it then I will sell it. I am dealing with that right now with $Tree. $40 was my number, it passed it then is now hanging out in the $39+/- range.
I used to hold shit way too long to hit homeruns, but you can still score a bunch of runs hitting singles.
The end of the day, you play the market to make money, and profit is a good thing.
Back to NVIDIA, I have not researched it too much. Do you think it will have more room to run, if so keep it. Study their earnings. Do they think the will increase revenue, profit, etc?

Im holding here.

 

[Gas121]

It's kinda odd to think Abercrombie & Fitch Co has outperformed NVDA on the one year. I mean nobody thought NVDA would run this high but there was a lot of noise and FOMO into the stock, momentum so its not surprising but Abercombie? There would have been very few that thought ANF would run this hot, I'd say not a cats in hell chance did anybody think ANF a retailer would return +350% in under a year. I'm not sure why the big movement all of a sudden looking at the financials but I'd probably be unloading the stock up here.

This stock was in the gutter for literally years and years. ANF was literally garbage. This stock has returned 700% since last September... Sweet baby Jesus who'd of thought this was a golden opportunity a freaking hipster retail store lol.

I'm thinking going short, could pay handsomely but these momentum stocks are crazy. I have no doubt it'll happen but timing is never easy.

I'm quite diversified around the market at the moment, holding some decent gains but I'm starting to look for short entries when weakness becomes evident.

 

[HOLA]

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is in discussions to fit Google's artificial intelligence model Gemini into the iPhone, Bloomberg News reported, citing people with knowledge of the matter.

Google parent Alphabet's (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) stock rose about 7% on Monday, while Apple shares were up about 3% following the report.

The two tech giants are in talks to let Apple license Google's AI model Gemini to power some new features which would come to the iPhone software in 2024, the report added.

Apple was also in talks with Microsoft (MSFT)-backed OpenAI and has considered using its AI model, the report noted.

The Cupertino, Calif.-based Apple is preparing new capabilities as part of the iPhone's upcoming operating system iOS 18. However, these updates will be focused on features which operate on its devices, rather than ones provided through cloud. So Apple is looking for a partner for generative AI, including features such as creating images and written content based on prompts.

The companies have not decided on the terms of the potential AI agreement, and the report noted that it was unlikely that any deal would be announced until June, when Apple intends to hold its annual Worldwide Developers Conference. It is also possible that an agreement is not reached or that Apple may choose another partner, the report noted.

Since early last year, Apple has been evaluating its own large language model, known as Ajax. Certain employees also have been testing a basic chatbot internally known as Apple GPT, as per the report.

Wedbush — which maintained its Outperform rating on Apple — said the potential Apple-Google AI partnership is part of a broader aggressive iPhone AI strategy.

"This is a major win for Google to get onto the Apple ecosystem and have access to the golden installed base of Cupertino with clearly a major license fee attached to this," said a team of analysts led by Daniel Ives, referring to Apple's headquarters in Cupertino.

For Apple, it would give them the foundation and technology blueprint to double down on AI features currently being developed within Apple Park to make sure that iPhone 16 will be a potential game changer iPhone release around AI functionality, the analysts added.

 

[Gas121]

Shorts blown out as usual on the Fed meeting lol.

Sitting comfortably here in small/med caps.

Was hoping for a pullback in oil stocks. Feeling bullish on oil long term, and expecting Crude Oil to hit $90 when the cuts come and leaning towards the possibility of $100 on deck EOY or next year if no recession and economy holds up.

 

[HOLA]

lol, wasn't expecting this. Be interesting to see where it's at in 6 months:

Reddit shares jumped 38% on Thursday to open at $47 in the first initial public offering for a major social media company since Pinterest’s debut in 2019.

The 19-year-old website that hosts millions of online forums priced its IPO on Wednesday at $34 a share, the top of the expected range. Reddit and selling shareholders raised about $750 million from the offering, with the company collecting about $519 million.

Trading under the ticker symbol “RDDT,” Reddit is testing investor appetite for new tech stocks after an extended dry spell for IPOs. Since the peak of the technology boom in late 2021, hardly any venture-backed tech companies have gone public and those that have — like Instacart and Klaviyo last year — have underwhelmed.

 

[HOLA]

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) has been sued by the U.S. Department of Justice in a landmark antitrust case against the tech giant.

The Justice Department filed the civil suit in a New Jersey federal court alleging Apple has violated the Sherman Act by using its iPhone to prevent other companies from offering competitive services such as digital wallets. The suit also alleges Apple limits the functionality of hardware and makes it difficult for users to switch to and communicate with competitive devices, such as Android phones.

"Apple's anti-competitive tactics also make it harder for non-iPhone users to message iPhone users," said U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland, in a press briefing late Thursday morning. "We allege Apple is violating the law by creating barriers making it extremely difficult for developers to go outside the Apple operating system."

The Justice Department was joined by 16 other state and district attorneys general. The complaint contends Apple holds monopoly power in the smartphone and performance smartphone markets.

“For years, Apple responded to competitive threats by imposing a series of 'Whac-A-Mole' contractual rules and restrictions that have allowed Apple to extract higher prices from consumers, impose higher fees on developers and creators, and to throttle competitive alternatives from rival technologies,” said Assistant Attorney General Jonathan Kanter of the Justice Department’s Antitrust Division.

"This lawsuit threatens who we are and the principles that set Apple products apart in fiercely competitive market," Apple said in a statement to Seeking Alpha.

"If successful, it would hinder our ability to create the kind of technology people expect from Apple—where hardware, software, and services intersect," Apple added. "It would also set a dangerous precedent, empowering government to take a heavy hand in designing people’s technology. We believe this lawsuit is wrong on the facts and the law, and we will vigorously defend against it.”