Note: Anyone who says "Polls were wrong in 2016" is outing himself as not knowing what a poll is. The national polls were quite accurate in 2016.
I'm not the guy to make a thread every time there is a new poll, but a batch of polls came out this past week that are
really bad for the GOP just a couple of months out from the midterms.
Highlights:
- The Democratic advantage on the generic ballot is up to 12 points according to a new NPR/ Marist poll, up from 7 in July on the same poll. The fivethirtyeight average of all polls gives Democrats a 9 point lead.
- The increasing Democratic lead has been driven by voters in the Midwest. Voters in the Midwest have swung 13 points in the Democratic direction since July, according to the Marist poll.
- There has been an 11 point shift towards Democrats in small towns, and a 6 point shift towards Democrats in rural areas.
- Democrats now enjoy a 56 to 34 advantage over the GOP in suburbs-- and many of the Congressional "swing districts" up for grabs in November are heavily suburban.
- Trump won the presidency partially due to unexpectedly strong performance with women (he got 41% of the female vote). But women have shifted Democratic more heavily than any other group since that time. Women say they favor Democratic candidates 62 to 28 percent for these upcoming midterms.
- Three separate polls this past week have Trump's overall approval rating back below 40 percent-- the lowest it has been since February.
I'm not saying there is going to be a blue wave-- GOP gerrymandering and a historically favorable Senate map may be too much for Democrats to overcome-- but this data should have the GOP thinking, if not outright worrying.
One possible explanation for the left shift since summer is the effects of Trump's trade war on Midwestern agriculture and auto making. Another possibility is that many working class people, particularly in the Midwest, are getting tired of hearing how great the economy is without seeing it "trickle down" to their wages in a really meaningful way.
https://www.npr.org/2018/09/12/6468...-democratic-advantage-for-control-of-congress
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/