the thing I'm not seeing touched upon regarding Shogun/Gus

Dionysian said:
is Shogun on the bottom if Gus gets the knockdown standing. Obviously Shogun is extremely hard to put away so Gus will likely have to close in to try and finish with GNP if he DOES get the knockdown. Once he does and he gets put into the half guard of Shogun... can he finish before Shogun clears the cobwebs and then sweeps like he tends to do from that position?
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what odds would you give me that he only follows Shogun to the ground carefully, and either takes no risks and/or gets back up / allows Shogun back up?
 
flyingnecklock said:
I don't think Gus wants to be on the ground at all with Shogun,top or bottom, unless he is putting in the coffin nails.

I think his stratehy will look similar to his fight with Thiago Silva.
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Not all with you on this one, against Silva he wasn't really pushing for the finish. I even remember his coach saying in an interview that they wanted three rounds. This was after the fight, so not sure if this was the truth.
But with Shogun he needs to push it more, I think, if he wants the title shot. I know he's "promised" one if he wins, but we all know how reliable Dana's promises are.

The question is, as OP writes, what will happen if Gus drops Shogun? How will Gus finish Shogun?

My guess; Alex gets mount, as in his past fights and gets the tko/(rnc) or, armbar! In almost every training video I've seen, he's been practicing this move, who knows? Can't wait for tomorrow!
 
When Shogun fights taller fighter's who get the better of him standing ( Overeem & Diabete ) he would take them down and beat them.
Shogun will stand with Gustafsson and then will get the better of him on the ground.
Eventually they will get back to their feet where Shogun will catch him with a flurry of strikes finishing him in the 1st round.
 
Shogun by GnP or Sub.

Gus has been running hot, but the competition he's beat is nowhere near Shogun's level and you always have to wonder about a 1st round phenom, especially when you know he's going to go through the fire with someone of Shogun's caliber.

I like Alexander though, he's got a good head on his shoulders and a lot of potential, but I don't think he's ready for this.
 
Why do you assume Gus will end up in half if he rocks Shogun?
 
GrindingANARCHY said:
When Shogun fights taller fighter's who get the better of him standing ( Overeem & Diabete ) he would take them down and beat them.
Shogun will stand with Gustafsson and then will get the better of him on the ground.
Eventually they will get back to their feet where Shogun will catch him with a flurry of strikes finishing him in the 1st round.
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If it goes to the ground once, Shogun will be so gassed when they get up that he'll spend the rest of the fight as a punching bag.
 
i love shogun rua hes one of the reasons why i love mma so much, but at this point in his career i dont know if i can handle him getting beat down by jones again if he beats the mauler. plus i can see Gus using his lead jab to keep the distance with shogun kinda like bones did.
 
Why are people giving Gus so much respect? Is it his win over the janitor? Maybe Thiago Silva?

There's a reason why Wanderlei and Shogun requested to fight Thiago when they first came to the UFC.
 
Dionysian said:
I see plenty of discussion about Shogun leaving an opening defensively, Shogun potentially catching Gus, Gus and his footwork, and D1 Shogun trying for the TD.

One thing I haven't seen on this forum... and I think it is quite odd considering how likely it is... is Shogun on the bottom if Gus gets the knockdown standing. Obviously Shogun is extremely hard to put away so Gus will likely have to close in to try and finish with GNP if he DOES get the knockdown. Once he does and he gets put into the half guard of Shogun... can he finish before Shogun clears the cobwebs and then sweeps like he tends to do from that position?

I'm just saying Shogun may end up on top without D1 Shogun ever making an appearance. Once he does Gus's strength is negated and he could be put in a very precarious position. Just a thought that I wanted to put out there since it seems oddly absent from all conversation so far, despite being not all that unlikely to happen.
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I think if the fight lasts more than 5 minutes, that a Shogun sub win from the bottom is his most likely path to victory. Shogun is, and always has been, better on the ground than standing.
 
Akira Yuki said:
If it goes to the ground once, Shogun will be so gassed when they get up that he'll spend the rest of the fight as a punching bag.
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Based off of what? The Vera fight?

Griffin 1 - Shogun gassed after the 1st, we all know why.

Coleman 2 - Samething

Liddell - went to the ground briefly, Shogun ko'd him

Machida 1 - majority of it standing

Machida 2 - went to the ground, Rua got up & ko'd him

Jones - ..............

Griffin 2 - standing

Hendo - both fighters were gassed, who wouldn't have been?

Vera - Shogun slowed down a bit but still dominated on the ground and was the only guy who has ko'd Vera standing.
 
Akira Yuki said:
If it goes to the ground once, Shogun will be so gassed when they get up that he'll spend the rest of the fight as a punching bag.
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Let's look at ALL the championship rounds Shogun has ever competed in within the Octagon:

Rounds 4 & 5 of Machida I
Rounds 4 & 5 of Hendo
Round 4 of Vera

Percent of championship rounds Shogun has won that he has competed in: 100%

Shogun's lack of cardio is talked about way too often on Sherdog. For a guy that gasses in the 1st so often he does an amazing job of never losing later rounds...

Ohioan said:
Why do you assume Gus will end up in half if he rocks Shogun?
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No reason in particular. Just that Shogun manages to get it while hurt frequently.
SeattleFightFan said:
what odds would you give me that he only follows Shogun to the ground carefully, and either takes no risks and/or gets back up / allows Shogun back up?
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Yeah I actually brought that up earlier in this thread. I'm wondering the same thing myself. Wouldn't surprise me if he did.
 
GordaoPreguico said:
Shoguns sweeps are so well known that many people see them coming. I am sure that Gus has trained to defend them.
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He can then turn the position into a leg lock.
 
LiverShot2 said:
Why are people giving Gus so much respect? Is it his win over the janitor? Maybe Thiago Silva?

There's a reason why Wanderlei and Shogun requested to fight Thiago when they first came to the UFC.
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size, strength, ability, and improvement is why.

look, eventually the top 5 LHW monopoly has to end. some up and comer at some point will beat one of em. some folks simply think this is the time & place. is there anyone you might pick to beat one of the top 5? if the answer is yes, then you should at least be able to understand why some think this up and comer will be the one to do it tomorrow (even if you disagree)
 
SeattleFightFan said:
size, strength, ability, and improvement is why.

look, eventually the top 5 LHW monopoly has to end. some up and comer at some point will beat one of em. some folks simply think this is the time & place. is there anyone you might pick to beat one of the top 5? if the answer is yes, then you should at least be able to understand why some think this up and comer will be the one to do it tomorrow (even if you disagree)
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I get that, but all the threads I see are about what Shogun can do to stop Gus. If you look at every fight where Shogun fought mediocre competition, he'd look unstoppable.
 
Dionysian said:
I see plenty of discussion about Shogun leaving an opening defensively, Shogun potentially catching Gus, Gus and his footwork, and D1 Shogun trying for the TD.

One thing I haven't seen on this forum... and I think it is quite odd considering how likely it is... is Shogun on the bottom if Gus gets the knockdown standing. Obviously Shogun is extremely hard to put away so Gus will likely have to close in to try and finish with GNP if he DOES get the knockdown. Once he does and he gets put into the half guard of Shogun... can he finish before Shogun clears the cobwebs and then sweeps like he tends to do from that position?

I'm just saying Shogun may end up on top without D1 Shogun ever making an appearance. Once he does Gus's strength is negated and he could be put in a very precarious position. Just a thought that I wanted to put out there since it seems oddly absent from all conversation so far, despite being not all that unlikely to happen.
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If Gus does get the knock down, you never know whats gonna happen, unitl the scenario happens. Depens on how hurt Shogun is. But from what I've seen from Gus, he tends to back off.

I do think were gonna see Shogun go for takedowns in this one, and mix things up. Best way to take Gus out of his rythem is by taking him down or clinching against the cage to stop his movement
 
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