UFC 219 - Cyborg vs Holm - Vegas

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Zee's MMA Subscriber said:
All these main card favourites are overpriced with the exception of Rivera and maybe Cyborg

Barboza and Esparza are 100% GOAT bets, odds are a joke. I have already done my expert capping for these fights and I am highly confident that both dogs cash, I know things that the majority of you don't and that gives me an edge. I'm always looking for angles, thats what high level bettors do.

Starting to think Magny could also be in a great position to get a win. Condit's only wins in the last 5 years are over Alves, Kampman and Diaz. He's also lost 5 of his last 7, 16 months off due to retirement, his best years are behind him, probably just turning up for a check. Condit has always had suspect TDD and Magny can exploit that.

Dogs are going to cash, favourites are unworthy. Will be making high level moves.
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But Esparza has no striking whatsoever, Markos and the tall european girl made it a fight just by striking with her a bit, Calvillo is a much better grappler and will undoubtely win the striking, despite her record she's been fighting for 5 years and doesnt make many rookie mistakes.
The only reason i can think of betting Espara is because its WMMA.

I like Magny and Edson too, however Magny has struggled with kickers yet condit has very little head movement and will eat Magny's jab all night, i only like Magny because i feel he's got a big edge in the takedowns if it stays standing its anyone's fight, im just hoping Condit doesnt take Magny's leg underneath him.

Edson is great value i agree, the thing that worries me is that he cant finish Khabib and Khabib only needs one takedown, i dont see Edson surviving a prolongued assault on the ground at all. I'd be going crazy on this line but historically my biggest loses are to grapplers so im not going heavy. Also Edson seems like a front runner to me, like when things get ugly he struggles to turn the tables, that lowblow messed up Dariush timing he was well on his way to winning.
 
molest said:
But Esparza has no striking whatsoever, Markos and the tall european girl made it a fight just by striking with her a bit, Calvillo is a much better grappler and will undoubtely win the striking, despite her record she's been fighting for 5 years and doesnt make many rookie mistakes.
The only reason i can think of betting Espara is because its WMMA.

I like Magny and Edson too, however Magny has struggled with kickers yet condit has very little head movement and will eat Magny's jab all night, i only like Magny because i feel he's got a big edge in the takedowns if it stays standing its anyone's fight, im just hoping Condit doesnt take Magny's leg underneath him.

Edson is great value i agree, the thing that worries me is that he cant finish Khabib and Khabib only needs one takedown, i dont see Edson surviving a prolongued assault on the ground at all. I'd be going crazy on this line but historically my biggest loses are to grapplers so im not going heavy. Also Edson seems like a front runner to me, like when things get ugly he struggles to turn the tables, that lowblow messed up Dariush timing he was well on his way to winning.
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Please don't make the mistake of underestimating Carla Esparza, she's a former world champion and she's still one of the best in the world.

The fight with Markos could have gone either way it was that close, Esparza clearly won the 3rd round but the first two rounds were coin flips. Markos got some help from those Canadian judges. Markos is also a good wrestler and she was smart to use a low stance, she fought a good fight but she hardly beat Esparza.

Esparza's striking has improved, it's really not as bad as you say. She's gotten significantly better since the JJ fight. She looked improved vs Markos and then even better vs Moroz. She's got some speed and she's got a decent blitz, she can hold her own vs Calvillo standing but its not where she wants to be.

Calvillo got taken down by Pearl Gonzalez twice and Esparza takes down every single opponent. Esparza is one of the best grapplers in the division and she's the best pure wrestler in the division. She will get TD's vs Calvillo.

Calvillo is overhyped, this is is a big step up and a tough match up, the odds are totally disrespectful towards Esparza.

Mostly agree about Magny and Barboza, I like the value and I like the style match ups.
 
Cris - I have alot of things in my game, people don't know, I'm a 4 time world champion in BJJ, you'll see a different Cyborg, just like Miesha showed, Holly has never fought someone like me, I've never fought someone who runs so much, but I will catch her, I'm ready for 5 rounds, Holly has alot of boxing fights, she's taken alot of punches to the head, that's an advantage to me, Meisha already showed a way to submit her

Khabib - He runs a bit too much, I have to find him, he'll worry about my takedown, it will be hard for him, my weight is perfect now, my pressure, my boxing, I have a very good game plan for him, after this I will fight April/May and then Dec again, I already made a plan with UFC, If he doesn't KO me, he won't beat me, I will make him tired, I will break him, this is what I'm going to do, I'm a big fan of MMA, I watch alot of fights (Bellator, other orgs)

 
molest said:
But Esparza has no striking whatsoever, Markos and the tall european girl made it a fight just by striking with her a bit, Calvillo is a much better grappler and will undoubtely win the striking, despite her record she's been fighting for 5 years and doesnt make many rookie mistakes.
The only reason i can think of betting Espara is because its WMMA.

I like Magny and Edson too, however Magny has struggled with kickers yet condit has very little head movement and will eat Magny's jab all night, i only like Magny because i feel he's got a big edge in the takedowns if it stays standing its anyone's fight, im just hoping Condit doesnt take Magny's leg underneath him.

Edson is great value i agree, the thing that worries me is that he cant finish Khabib and Khabib only needs one takedown, i dont see Edson surviving a prolongued assault on the ground at all. I'd be going crazy on this line but historically my biggest loses are to grapplers so im not going heavy. Also Edson seems like a front runner to me, like when things get ugly he struggles to turn the tables, that lowblow messed up Dariush timing he was well on his way to winning.
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Dont agree barb is a front runner. Losing to dariush and pulled r3 finish out the bag. Hellacious first round against castillo and came back to win r2 and r3
 
Sham5916910 said:
Dont agree barb is a front runner. Losing to dariush and pulled r3 finish out the bag. Hellacious first round against castillo and came back to win r2 and r3
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barboza was essentially kod by a cerrone jab.
 
Zee's MMA Subscriber said:
Please don't make the mistake of underestimating Carla Esparza, she's a former world champion and she's still one of the best in the world.

The fight with Markos could have gone either way it was that close, Esparza clearly won the 3rd round but the first two rounds were coin flips. Markos got some help from those Canadian judges. Markos is also a good wrestler and she was smart to use a low stance, she fought a good fight but she hardly beat Esparza.

Esparza's striking has improved, it's really not as bad as you say. She's gotten significantly better since the JJ fight. She looked improved vs Markos and then even better vs Moroz. She's got some speed and she's got a decent blitz, she can hold her own vs Calvillo standing but its not where she wants to be.

Calvillo got taken down by Pearl Gonzalez twice and Esparza takes down every single opponent. Esparza is one of the best grapplers in the division and she's the best pure wrestler in the division. She will get TD's vs Calvillo.

Calvillo is overhyped, this is is a big step up and a tough match up, the odds are totally disrespectful towards Esparza.

Mostly agree about Magny and Barboza, I like the value and I like the style match ups.
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You keep up that analysis and you will be a world champion of betting and will be allowed to breed for the future generation of gamblers
 
iGnP said:
Yea so even though I was making a big deal about Condit being too much for Magny, I bet Magny and Magny decision. Odds forced my hand
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I’m on Magny too. I think it’s a good matchup for him. He got absolutely blitzed by a Larkin who was super motivated and fighting for his life (I believe we both had Larkin on that one) and RDA who I’ll be betting over anyone at 170.
 
agree with Zee's the line on Calvillo is a joke she only beaten bums besides Jo Jo hwo have no ground game so it was the perfect matchup for her on the other hand Esparza is way more proven with wins over Torres,Namajunas,Lima ect... sure Calvillo have looked great in her fights but she have never faced anyone that has even close to Esparza's ground skills and experience

coin flip fight in my eyes
 
wack3d said:
agree with Zee's the line on Calvillo is a joke she only beaten bums besides Jo Jo hwo have no ground game so it was the perfect matchup for her on the other hand Esparza is way more proven with wins over Torres,Namajunas,Lima ect... sure Calvillo have looked great in her fights but she have never faced anyone that has even close to Esparza's ground skills and experience

coin flip fight in my eyes
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TBF 90% of the JoJo/Calv fight was contested on the feet. Cyn did use timely takedowns and grappling to win rounds, but she essentially beat/stalemated a pure striker in her realm of expertise. I do agree that the line is a joke, however. Been preaching it for days, but I think the over is the safest bet and its only -170. Cyn sub is only way this finishes ITD.
 
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EU-bookie

Vettori -220
Akhmedov +155

Jury -400
Glenn +255

Diakiese -250
Hooker +170

Rountree -180
Oleksiejczuk +128
 
Didn't know Jackson's MMA has lost 17-18 in a row

https://www.bloodyelbow.com/2017/12...-17-in-a-row-what-happened-to-this-once-great

Jackson/Wink have lost 17 in a row, what happened to this once great camp?

1.Cowboy x2 2.Michelle Waterson x2, 3. Anthony Hamilton 2x 4.Diego Sanchez 5. Allistar Overeem 6. John Dodson 7. Ray Borg 8. Marcin Tybura 9. Chase Sherman 10. Damian Stasiak 11. Jodi Esquibel 12. Johny Hendricks 13. Tom Duquesnoy 14. Mitch Clark 15. Jack Marshman 16. Cub Swanson 17. Tyson Pedro.

Of course the question is why? is it the loss of original Jackson coaches such as Chris Luttrell who were part of the building of the place and its system of fighting? the move to the new high tech facility? the "semi-retirement of Jackson himself who reportedly is not there full time every week?

and unconfirmed rumors of PED's in the gym proliferated by a Russian manager are also something that's been out on the street.
 
Bless said:
EU-bookie

Vettori -220
Akhmedov +155

Jury -400
Glenn +255

Diakiese -250
Hooker +170

Rountree -180
Oleksiejczuk +128
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Take it easy now Euro's, none of these lines look tempting, not a single one.
 
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