UFC 220 - Miocic vs Ngannou - Boston

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Dec 29, 2017.

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  1. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Senior Moderator Staff Member Senior Moderator

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  2. Sapp

    Sapp Red Belt

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    It's inconceivable that DC vs Volkan goes the distance.
     
  3. LogicalInsanity

    LogicalInsanity Gold Belt

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    Whoa, stipe is an underdog?!
     
  4. MacPherson911

    MacPherson911 street walkin' cheetah with a heart full of napalm

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    Stipe is such a live dog here it's unreal. We don't know anything about Francis besides he has dynamite in his fists. Can he go 3-5 rounds or will he gas? Can he get up from the ground? Has his chin ever been tested? We know that the answer is yes to all of that for Stipe. My money's on #andstill
     
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  5. Gugabe

    Gugabe Blue Belt

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    Probably gonna play Stipe and hedge it with the under line, same thing I did for Overeem/Ngannou. I think it's Stipe's fight to win if he lasts a round, not necessarily because Ngannou's gonna automatically gas to death, but moreso because I think that if a guy's capable of figuring out how to keep Ngannou off for a round, they've figured out how to solve him down the stretch.
     
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  6. Papi

    Papi Blue Belt

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    This!!
     
  7. RuthlessRich

    RuthlessRich Ghost

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    I think its safe to bet the house on Stipe vs Ngannou doesnt go the distance. Will probably bet on DC vs Volkan doesnt go distance as well
     
  8. piglord

    piglord Brown Belt

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    in terms of initial leans this card looks bleak. could be good for live bet.
     
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  9. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Senior Moderator Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    you're gonna bet -800 on that?
     
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  10. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Senior Moderator Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    so oezdemir has 11 finishes. all 11 were in the first round.

    and realistically that's just about the most likely way he'd have to beat DC here, anyway, right?

    i'm taking some +700
     
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  11. pytycrys

    pytycrys Green Belt

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    Value is value and don't get me wrong, I was on Rumble vs DC...But we all know how that went.
    I don't really see where Oezdemir could be better than Rumble..
     
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  12. raketmannen

    raketmannen Purple Belt

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    Maybe by not initiating the clinch?
     
  13. Soccer Steve

    Soccer Steve Orange Belt

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    Not retiring mid-fight might be a good tactic as well.
     
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  14. Manpuncher

    Manpuncher Yellow Belt

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    Ngannou becomes Ngassou Rd 3/4 - Stipe by GnP TKO.
     
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  15. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Stipe's chin being tested is irrelevant in this case though imo. If Ngannou lands, it's smelling salts time no matter who you are.

    I like the thought of betting Stipe and the u1.5. You have to figure Stipe the wrestler comes out for this one. Maybe he tries to stick and move on the outside for awhile to avoid exchanges that way. But no way does Stipe want to be anywhere near the pocket trading with Francis. Overeem hurt Stipe badly but tried to finish with a guillotine. Stipe needs to stay away from that freaky power any way possible. Hitting early TD's and tiring Francis out seems the best path to doing that.
     
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  16. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Senior Moderator Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    i don't hate that combo.. but you could get middled.
     
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  17. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    True.

    Another strategy I guess is to bet Ngannou rd 1 and then just look to live bet Stipe after that depending on what things look like.
     
  18. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Senior Moderator Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    i like that better
     
  19. danareem

    danareem Orange Belt

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    Stipe +164 on pinnacle, adding that
     
  20. Shoulder

    Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

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    The risk then being Stipe beats Ngannou in the first, which is how he regularly beats fools.

    I might just play the under 1.5U big if the price is right and LB Stipe after that.
     
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