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Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Dec 29, 2017.
It's inconceivable that DC vs Volkan goes the distance.
Whoa, stipe is an underdog?!
Stipe is such a live dog here it's unreal. We don't know anything about Francis besides he has dynamite in his fists. Can he go 3-5 rounds or will he gas? Can he get up from the ground? Has his chin ever been tested? We know that the answer is yes to all of that for Stipe. My money's on #andstill
Probably gonna play Stipe and hedge it with the under line, same thing I did for Overeem/Ngannou. I think it's Stipe's fight to win if he lasts a round, not necessarily because Ngannou's gonna automatically gas to death, but moreso because I think that if a guy's capable of figuring out how to keep Ngannou off for a round, they've figured out how to solve him down the stretch.
I think its safe to bet the house on Stipe vs Ngannou doesnt go the distance. Will probably bet on DC vs Volkan doesnt go distance as well
in terms of initial leans this card looks bleak. could be good for live bet.
you're gonna bet -800 on that?
so oezdemir has 11 finishes. all 11 were in the first round.
and realistically that's just about the most likely way he'd have to beat DC here, anyway, right?
i'm taking some +700
Value is value and don't get me wrong, I was on Rumble vs DC...But we all know how that went.
I don't really see where Oezdemir could be better than Rumble..
Maybe by not initiating the clinch?
Not retiring mid-fight might be a good tactic as well.
Ngannou becomes Ngassou Rd 3/4 - Stipe by GnP TKO.
Stipe's chin being tested is irrelevant in this case though imo. If Ngannou lands, it's smelling salts time no matter who you are.
I like the thought of betting Stipe and the u1.5. You have to figure Stipe the wrestler comes out for this one. Maybe he tries to stick and move on the outside for awhile to avoid exchanges that way. But no way does Stipe want to be anywhere near the pocket trading with Francis. Overeem hurt Stipe badly but tried to finish with a guillotine. Stipe needs to stay away from that freaky power any way possible. Hitting early TD's and tiring Francis out seems the best path to doing that.
i don't hate that combo.. but you could get middled.
Another strategy I guess is to bet Ngannou rd 1 and then just look to live bet Stipe after that depending on what things look like.
i like that better
Stipe +164 on pinnacle, adding that
The risk then being Stipe beats Ngannou in the first, which is how he regularly beats fools.
I might just play the under 1.5U big if the price is right and LB Stipe after that.