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It's over 2 weeks left to untill the event takes place so could take a whileDamn, waiting for rest of the odds
It's over 2 weeks left to untill the event takes place so could take a whileDamn, waiting for rest of the odds
I like Anthony Pettis/Michael Chiesa Under 2½ at +115. Both these guys have been losing and winning by stoppage a lot in their last few fights. You have Pettis' higher champion level skills, at least at one time vs Chiesa's not-elite so far level, Chiesa's inconsistent, sometimes great, sometimes flawed performances. Pettis has KO or submission potential, Chiesa mostly has submission potential, plus Pettis could get injured again like he did in his last fight.
Picked up some Tony DEC @13.00
Yeah, Sportsbet has Ferg points at 13.00 and KO at 12.00.WTF? Those are crazy odds.
Decided to hit Not Nurmagomedov Inside the Distance at -184. risking 3.68u to win 2u. I'm betting that Tony is tough enough to not get stopped. I think this bout could go to a decision even if hard fought and I'm rooting for Tony. So as long as Tony wins ITD or by decision or Khabib wins a decision, even a wide unanimous decision, the prop wins. I'm gambling a bit on the referee not jumping too quickly if Tony looks in trouble at some point or the fight not getting stopped by a cut on Tony from Khabib's ground & pound. But this covers most outcomes for a decent price- Tony ITD, Tony DEC, Khabib DEC or even a draw.
This is pedantic as it gets, but the event prop is actually "x # of fights go distance" which is in the very rare occurance in MMA of a technical decision happening, not the same thing as "x # of fights go to decision", something a few bettors learned the last time we got a technical decision in the UFC.this card reminds me of ufc 200 (the one with the yellow colored mat), stacked competitively and many fights went to decisions. I will probably bet the event props line of "X amount of fights go to decision". And as a theoretical hedge, I will try to bet some props on TKO/SUB victories, though nothing is jumping out so far.
It wouldn’t be surprising. But, Chiesa is most dangerous from the back and Pettis is excellent at defending RNCs.
Pettis is also a big submission threat himself. I could easily see him jumping on a guillotine off one of Chiesa’s sloppy shots or hurting him on the feet first. I actually think Pettis sub could be equally or even more likely.
FYI Pettis sub spiked all the way up to +651. I just did a bit on it. I checked and I didn't move the line yet though. If you're gonna hit it now is definitely the time imo.
+651 is pretty crazy value for a fight that could end up a scramble-fest like Pettis/Olives, or at least a grappling heavy fight like Pettis/Poirier.
Meanwhile Chiesa sub down to +340. Value probably gone from that prop now.
Decided to hit Not Nurmagomedov Inside the Distance at -184. risking 3.68u to win 2u. I'm betting that Tony is tough enough to not get stopped. I think this bout could go to a decision even if hard fought and I'm rooting for Tony. So as long as Tony wins ITD or by decision or Khabib wins a decision, even a wide unanimous decision, the prop wins. I'm gambling a bit on the referee not jumping too quickly if Tony looks in trouble at some point or the fight not getting stopped by a cut on Tony from Khabib's ground & pound. But this covers most outcomes for a decent price- Tony ITD, Tony DEC, Khabib DEC or even a draw.
I saw your play first and gave it some thought, but not only am I rooting for Tony, but I think that if Khabib wins Khabib by decision is more likely than Khabib finishing. So I'm on the over, Tony ML, and some decision and other props. I may hedge a little with Khabib winning in round 2 or 3 as I think those are the most likely rounds he finishes in if he does.I went big the other way, Not Khabib dec. I've broken it down a lot, but basically my theory is that Tony just doesn't accept playing defensive guard for long stretches. He'll do it for a bit, use his rubber guard to to try to stalemate, but it's not for very long. He takes repeated chances. Khabib is amazing at slowly advancing to half guard and doing real damage. No question, Tony is as durable as they come and has cardio for days, but he gets stuck in bad spots a lot. My concern is what you mentioned, the ref jumping in with Tony stuck in a bad spot even if Tony isn't seriously hurt and is fine to continue.
That said, I think Tony can sap Khabib's gas tank over the first 10-15 minutes of the fight, even if it looks like Khabib is getting the better of it. Khabib was the hammer the entire time vs Barboza (who offered basically nothing off his back) and Khabib still looked visibly tired after that 15 minute beatdown he administered. If Tony is able to be a little more active and do a little damage of his own, late in round 3 or early in round 4 we could see him turn it on and maybe get a finish. Otherwise, I could potentially see a very close decision either way with Khabib clearly winning the first half of the fight and Tony the second half. So I did pseudo-hedge a bit with Khabib split/maj at +1150.
Basically the only way I'm taking a bath is if Khabib wins a unan dec. A lot of people think that's the most likely outcome, but I disagree. I think he either gets the finish with Tony stuck in a bad spot that he can't get out of, or Tony survives early and takes over late and gets a late stoppage.