UFC 224 PBP/Discussion

Good event for me for 9.05 units, plus made money on Glory, BAMMA & boxing today as well.
 
A bit late for me, but I don't see how you could give Gastelum that decision. Draw (R1 was a clear 10-8) or Jacare 29-27 were the only logical scorecards based on what I saw there.

+0.43u night on tips, which isn't ideal... but it is profitable. +16u night on personal shit since I put together a Perez, Mina, Ramos, Oleinik, Alves, Nunes, Jacare, Dern, Ferreira 2-leg sub-prop round robin that went pretty well. Could have been +40u with another sub in there, but oh well.
 
Gugabe said:
A bit late for me, but I don't see how you could give Gastelum that decision. Draw (R1 was a clear 10-8) or Jacare 29-27 were the only logical scorecards based on what I saw there.

+0.43u night on tips, which isn't ideal... but it is profitable. +16u night on personal shit since I put together a Perez, Mina, Ramos, Oleinik, Alves, Nunes, Jacare, Dern, Ferreira 2-leg sub-prop round robin that went pretty well. Could have been +40u with another sub in there, but oh well.
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http://www.mmadecisions.com/decision/9052/Kelvin-Gastelum-vs-Ronaldo-Souza

media split down the middle. wasnt a robbery by any means
 
iGnP said:
http://www.mmadecisions.com/decision/9052/Kelvin-Gastelum-vs-Ronaldo-Souza

media split down the middle. wasnt a robbery by any means
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Ah. I looked at the page immediately after the fight and it was like 4-3-8 Gas-Draw-Jacare. More came in over time. I feel like people forget that damage from previous rounds doesn't carry over to future rounds, since there've been a few cases where it's been 'X is tired and Y is not, so Y wins the round' when neither's doing much and X is actually outlanding the other guy. Maia-Woodley is another fight where I believe that Maia should have picked up 2 of the later rounds, since Woodley just totally shut down output.

A scorecard for Gastelum is both failing to rate a clear 10-8 (Gastelum's entire effectiveness in the first was about 3 punches landed on Jacare as he went for the single), and scoring the third for Gastelum since he reacted less/looked less tired whilst Jacare landed the tangibly-harder hits.
 
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Gugabe said:
Ah. I looked at the page immediately after the fight and it was like 4-3-8 Gas-Draw-Jacare. More came in over time. I feel like people forget that damage from previous rounds doesn't carry over to future rounds, since there've been a few cases where it's been 'X is tired and Y is not, so Y wins the round' when neither's doing much and X is actually outlanding the other guy. Maia-Woodley is another fight where I believe that Maia should have picked up 2 of the later rounds, since Woodley just totally shut down output.

A scorecard for Gastelum is both failing to rate a clear 10-8 (Gastelum's entire effectiveness in the first was about 3 punches landed on Jacare as he went for the single), and scoring the third for Gastelum since he reacted less/looked less tired whilst Jacare landed the tangibly-harder hits.
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For what it’s worth I was on Jacare and have no problem w Kelvin winning that fight. Body language prob played a huge part in that decision tbf
 
Gugabe said:
A bit late for me, but I don't see how you could give Gastelum that decision. Draw (R1 was a clear 10-8) or Jacare 29-27 were the only logical scorecards based on what I saw there.

+0.43u night on tips, which isn't ideal... but it is profitable. +16u night on personal shit since I put together a Perez, Mina, Ramos, Oleinik, Alves, Nunes, Jacare, Dern, Ferreira 2-leg sub-prop round robin that went pretty well. Could have been +40u with another sub in there, but oh well.
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10-8? Seriously no significant strikes landed, the submission attempts was not that close to being finished either, and Kelvin got out of the armbar in the end. You don't ever get a 10-8 from just controlling someone.
I would not have complained if Jacare got the decision though, he landed some serious fucking strikes in the second and probably outstruck Kelvin, what won Kelvin the fight was that his ridicolous chin made Jacares strikes seem less significant and his body language made it seem like he was losing
 
raketmannen said:
10-8? Seriously no significant strikes landed, the submission attempts was not that close to being finished either, and Kelvin got out of the armbar in the end. You don't ever get a 10-8 from just controlling someone.
I would not have complained if Jacare got the decision though, he landed some serious fucking strikes in the second and probably outstruck Kelvin, what won Kelvin the fight was that his ridicolous chin made Jacares strikes seem less significant and his body language made it seem like he was losing
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He had significant GnP, mount, and those strikes during the armbar were pretty damned serious. I think Gastelum's sheer durability makes it hard to score when he's involved, since he'll tank some massive shots without showing much wear and tear. If you had a 'punch machine' rigged up in the 2nd/3rd and measured the actual force delivered to Jacare and Gastelum, I'd be surprised if Jacare didn't land a whole lot harder on Gas who just ate it. Jacare hits ludicrously hard.

Jacare probably fucked himself going for the armbar. Maintaining dominant mount/back control for the last 50 seconds wouldn't have let Gastelum finish the round on an escape, wouldn't have taxed his cardio as much and likely would have sealed the 10-8 more firmly. I just feel like the 'Jacare's gassing and Gastelum's gonna take over' narrative overpowered the actual events of the third, which happens occasionally in this sport when there's a preconceived expectation of what the fight's gonna look like/areas in which one of the fighters is seen as automatically winning.
 
bet365 priced in a 10-8 round as gastelum was offered at +450 in-between the first and second round
 
quincy k said:
bet365 priced in a 10-8 round as gastelum was offered at +450 in-between the first and second round
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+550 actually, +1300 for Kelvin decision, but that always happens when a fighter wins the first round and gets his game going

I know judges suck but all 3 scored it a 10-9 and the fight was in Brazil
 
raketmannen said:
+550 actually, +1300 for Kelvin decision, but that always happens when a fighter wins the first round and gets his game going

I know judges suck but all 3 scored it a 10-9 and the fight was in Brazil
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i never saw +550, just the 450 right when it was offered, never saw the decision as well...maybe later?

i saw value in the line because i thought it was a 10-9 round as gastelum suffered no damage and it was 10-8 pricing
 
quincy k said:
i never saw +550, just the 450 right when it was offered, never saw the decision as well...maybe later?

i saw value in the line because i thought it was a 10-9 round as gastelum suffered no damage and it was 10-8 pricing
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I'm sure pretty certain I saw +550, didn't bet it thought, bet +300 15 seconds into the 2nd round. Got in 0.3u on +1300 decision though so that one I'm 100% sure of

edit was +1200 for the decision whoops
 
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raketmannen said:
I'm sure pretty certain I saw +550, didn't bet it thought, bet +300 15 seconds into the 2nd round. Got in 0.3u on +1300 decision though so that one I'm 100% sure of

edit was +1200 for the decision whoops
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Yeah I saw the +450 like quincy, although I was too slow for that and had to settle for +300. This was the perfect lb fight, lines were moving around like they were being set by a kid with ADHD.
 
Worst lb night of the year literally one fight was lb worthy. I cant use 365 so i have no lb props and whill limited my +275 kg lb to £90 ffs. I should have gone to bed when warlley won
 
I just needed Jacare to have an awesome night. I had a good one thk
 
Sham5916910 said:
Worst lb night of the year literally one fight was lb worthy. I cant use 365 so i have no lb props and whill limited my +275 kg lb to £90 ffs. I should have gone to bed when warlley won
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I literally made two live bets all night. TWO. I didn't think it was possible on a 13 fight card. Luckily for me, I hit both. Kelvin +350ish after rd 1 and Nunes -300 after round 2 (which I went HUGE on when I saw she was actually less tired than Rocky). So from a results standpoint, my live bet night was amazing (my whole night was amazing really). But yeah, from an opportunity standpoint, I can't remember a card with so few chances to get anything down live. Early finishes combined with unplayable lines on the ones that didn't end early. Crazy.
 
Huge night, hit all my main plays and quite a few props. Finished up 22.5u between Bamma (pascu), Belly (Kongo and Bader), and UFC (Emeev, Alves, Herm, Perez, and sub props)
 
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