UFC 232 Jones vs Gustafsson II

[theTKDguy]

Zingano is going to beat the breaks off Anderson. That's a good fight for a parlay as I assume Cat will be something close to -250.

I dont know much about Millender's opponent, but I have the same feeling about him as I did with Stylebender 4-5 fights ago. I'm going to go ahead and bet him until he proves me wrong. He has the length and athleticism to give anyone nightmares on the feet.

I'm not so sure about both these fights. Zingano could very well win if she blankets anderson for 15 minutes but i'm not sure she can nowadays. she's clearly past her prime and her striking, which was never really good, is actually getting worse. If she can't take megan down quickly (megan is a huuuge 35er, she got taken down by holly but holly is very physical as well) I think megan ko's her. She rocked holly in the first 20 seconds of their fight irrc, girl is dangerous. It's either megan by tko or cat by dec.

Millender is huge and explosive but doesn't really throw combinations. Siyar is more technical but severily undersized. They both hit hard af (siyar is fast twitched and has some if the nastiest ko's at ww, as well as millender). I have to go with the bigger guy millender in a fight similar to saki vs khalil. Millender could easily be fighting at mw.

 

[TrueAscension]

I've read a couple of things about the Chad Mendes fight on here and he's the final leg in a couple NFL parlays I put together (Eagles ML and Chargers ML if you know football) that pay very well. I am considering the hedge but I HATE hedging in parlays because what's the point of the parlay if you're going to hedge.
That said, I'm sure I will hedge for a bit but I want to go on my instincts which are mainly that Volk is stepping up in competition and Mendes (outside of the Edgar loss) has fought real top 5 opponents and had Conor in all sorts of bad shape before getting smashed up at the end of that fight. Admittedly he looked gassed but the dude hits with trucks and his wrestling is second to none (well except Khabib I guess?) -

Anyways, talk me into the hedge here please so I don't degenerately piss money away but if anyone has some in depth analysis on this fight (I'm looking at you pig), it would be super appreciated.

Also, if anyone has hedging advice on this one, its for about 18k between two different parlays so I'd like to guarantee myself a good payout but also not hate myself for not following my instincts and getting the full payout.

Thanks.

 

[t6p]

megan is a huuuge 35er

FYI, this fight is at 145. Megan has never fought at 135.

 

[theTKDguy]

FYI, this fight is at 145. Megan has never fought at 135.

Good catch, didn't know that. Fight with holly was at 135?

I think that the fight being at 45 benefits anderson more than zingano. They both cut a ton of weight but megan is actually a big girl, large frame and muscular. She's like 5'10 ffs. Zingano is old and out of shape in between camps. I really think she's getting ko'ed if she can't get her to the ground.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Good catch, didn't know that. Fight with holly was at 135?

Wut. My dude, her whole shtick was that shes huge and is the only true 145er to take on Cyborg. No way she makes 145. Did you watch invicta this past weekend? She makes 115ers look silly.

 

[theTKDguy]

Wut. My dude, her whole shtick was that shes huge and is the only true 145er to take on Cyborg. No way she makes 145. Did you watch invicta this past weekend? She makes 115ers look silly.

Fuck I read it wrong. I figured something wasn't right lol. Doesn't change my pov much tho. megan is going to have a huge size advantage and I really doubt 2018 overweight zingano can take those shots. She's got heart but going up in weight now against megan sounds like a bad idea. Betting anderson tko.

 

[theTKDguy]

WTF megan at dog odds??? Give me some of that

This fight is at most a 70/30 for megan

 

[Broe.]

Fuck I read it wrong. I figured something wasn't right lol. Doesn't change my pov much tho. megan is going to have a huge size advantage and I really doubt 2018 overweight zingano can take those shots. She's got heart but going up in weight now against megan sounds like a bad idea. Betting anderson tko.

If Holm can easily take Megan down why wouldn't Cat be able to? Also I have seen that once Anderson gets taken down she is never going back up. There will be some scary moments in the beginning of the fight, but I have faith in Zingano's wrestling, she looked good vs Reneau.

 

[theTKDguy]

If Holm can easily take Megan down why wouldn't Cat be able to? Also I have seen that once Anderson gets taken down she is never going back up. There will be some scary moments in the beginning of the fight, but I have faith in Zingano's wrestling, she looked good vs Reneau.

Holly holm is much more athletic than zingano, and actually has some footwork (not great but it's sth). you also have to consider holly holm is a striking threat at the same time, megan had to worry about grappling and striking, with zingano not so much. She can only win this via tds. Zingano is a very strong girl but her footwork is terrible and I think she's gonna have a really hard time closing the gap. even in the clinch, I think that size difference is gonna play a huge factor. Fight being at 45 is important. She's very gritty tho, that's why I think she has a 30% chance to grind megan. I just think megan catching her with a hard punch in the 1st or putting a striking clinic for 2 or 3 rds is more likely.

 

[t6p]

Holly holm is much more athletic than zingano, and actually has some footwork (not great but it's sth). Zingano is a very strong girl but her footwork is terrible and I think she's gonna have a really hard time closing the gap. even in the clinch, I think that size difference is gonna play a huge factor. Fight being at 45 is important. She's very gritty tho, that's why I think she has a 30% chance to grind megan. I just think megan catching her with a hard punch in the 1st or putting a striking clinic for 2 or 3 rds is more likely.

Probably not betting the fight unless I can get Zingano closer to evens, but I'd need a much better price to consider betting Anderson after her performance against Holm. That fight was only 6 months ago and Megan's tdd looked bad, she offered nothing off her back and showed no ability to get back to her feet. Holm had full mount for significant portions of the 2nd and 3rd rounds. One takedown and Megan might find herself stuck on bottom for the rest of the round.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Im in on Zingano big. I believe she has better wrestling and take downs then Holm has and we saw how Holly looked a Dagestani grappler against Megan. Megan has no real wins on her resume all she has is size. Cat will bring it for 3 rounds too and has only been finished once by a Rhonda arm bar. Cat Zingano 4 Units

Also like Alex Volanovski at +135 odds. I think this guy has potential to be a champ. Hes an absolute beast, he is well rounded, and is in his prime at 30 years old. Chad has been finished in 2 of his last 3 fights and is a little bit on the older side. I have this capped with Alexander be the very slight favorite. Alexander Volkanovski 2 Units

LETSSSSSSSS GOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!! $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ @MMAFORTUNETELLER #THETELLER

 

[wack3d]

He’s not drug free and he’s gonna smoke gus

vs

you be the judge

 

[t6p]

I must say I largely disagree with your assessment on Latifi-Perdo and Anderson-Cummins.

How many actual jabs to Pedro even throw? I'm going to say less than 5. Latifi didnt even bite on Pedros feints, which was mostly just Pedro extending his lead arm repeatedly. It looked like Pedro was trying to draw Latifis overhand but I dont think Latifi responded once to his feints. For a feint to be effective you actually have to throw the strike you're pretending you might throw and Pedro looked scard to death to throw actual punches at Latifi. So I wouldnt say Pedros feints or his jab troubled Latifi at all, he was most effective with his kicks but Latifi kept trying to capitalize on those as well.

I also dont agree that he made Cummins wear his weight, he actually took Cummins down repeatedly and with high accuracy and just beat him badly. Anderson went 2/2 on takedowns in rd 1, 5/5 in rd 2 and 5/6 in rd 3 while causing significant damage. I dont even think Anderson lost control of Cummins throughout the fight. If he actually completes takedowns on Latifi he will try to make him wear his weight as Latifi stands but if he cant complete takedowns and tries to clinch and lean on Latifi I think Latifi takes him down instead. I think Anderson will have a hard time getting up too.

Anderson does feint a lot, move a lot and uses a jab but when Latifi starts countering Anderson will stop actually jabbing. I honestly dont see where Anderson will be effective. I see his jab being ineffective, his takedowns being ineffective, his clinch being ineffective, he doesnt kick much but if does I see those being ineffective. I would say his most effective asset will be his movement but I dont see how thats going to win him the fight.

You're right that Pedro only threw a handful of jabs, but the ones he did throw were landing and/or getting a big reaction from Latifi. I think Anderson will have success with his jab here and I agree with @MT6ix's thoughts in general.

Latifi typically fights in bursts, with periods of inactivity mixed in, theoretically to preserve his cardio. Facing a high volume guy like Anderson, I think Latifi is going to have difficulty winning rounds unless he's able to hurt Corey multiple times. We haven't seen anyone implement a wrestling heavy attack against Latifi either. Even if Anderson isn't able to take him down, just having to defend could wear on Latifi's gas tank, which could lead to his volume dropping off even more.

IMO Anderson decision and Latifi itd are by far the two most likely scenarios here. I cap the fight as a pick em and so far I've put down 1u on Anderson at +165. By the sounds of it, you're not seeing a path for Corey and you believe Latifi should be a much bigger favorite. How big have you bet him?

 

[Lando]

vs

you be the judge

He just finished that big powerlifting gig before that fight which is why he’s all jacked up, he’s back to his normal dosage now. Looks the same size he usually is

 

[Stunna77]

vs

you be the judge

Bro he just changed his mind about putting muscle on to move to HW, instead he is cutting to 185.

For real though, his pecs and traps disappeared.

 

[MT6ix]

I must say I largely disagree with your assessment on Latifi-Perdo and Anderson-Cummins.

How many actual jabs to Pedro even throw? I'm going to say less than 5. Latifi didnt even bite on Pedros feints, which was mostly just Pedro extending his lead arm repeatedly. It looked like Pedro was trying to draw Latifis overhand but I dont think Latifi responded once to his feints. For a feint to be effective you actually have to throw the strike you're pretending you might throw and Pedro looked scard to death to throw actual punches at Latifi. So I wouldnt say Pedros feints or his jab troubled Latifi at all, he was most effective with his kicks but Latifi kept trying to capitalize on those as well.

I also dont agree that he made Cummins wear his weight, he actually took Cummins down repeatedly and with high accuracy and just beat him badly. Anderson went 2/2 on takedowns in rd 1, 5/5 in rd 2 and 5/6 in rd 3 while causing significant damage. I dont even think Anderson lost control of Cummins throughout the fight. If he actually completes takedowns on Latifi he will try to make him wear his weight as Latifi stands but if he cant complete takedowns and tries to clinch and lean on Latifi I think Latifi takes him down instead. I think Anderson will have a hard time getting up too.

Anderson does feint a lot, move a lot and uses a jab but when Latifi starts countering Anderson will stop actually jabbing. I honestly dont see where Anderson will be effective. I see his jab being ineffective, his takedowns being ineffective, his clinch being ineffective, he doesnt kick much but if does I see those being ineffective. I would say his most effective asset will be his movement but I dont see how thats going to win him the fight.

Before digging into tape I was certain it was going to be a lopsided victory for Latifi since Latifi trains out of Allstars Gym in Sweden and one of his main training partners is Alexander Gustaffson who is a superior version of Corey Anderson but after watching tape Anderson definitely has a reasonable path to victory.

I was referring to Teixera not Cummins in my original post. You are right about Tyson Pedro and the jabs, he threw one even though his coaches in between rounds was telling him to throw it more. He was using his feints to set up kicks.

We can never be certain but Anderson's coaches Ricardo Almeida and Mark Henry are never going to let Anderson just trade with Latifi the whole fight and trade blow for blow, it makes sense against Patrick Cummins but not against Latifi and Teixera but you need to strike first to set up your takedown attempts. He will use his jab to set up takedowns and wear Latifi down against the cage. Anderson follows a good gameplan.

Fight metric stats Anderson lands 4.55 strikes per minute and Latifi 2.37 strikes per minute (big disparity). If it hits the scorecards, Anderson should outwork Latifi unless repeatedly takes down him which seems unlikely without a ground and pound stoppage. I can see Latifi possibly landing his right hence the Latifi ITD hedge. You are right about respecting Latifi's power but for Anderson it's jab and circle right to avoid Latifi's right hand and Latifi has a fair size reach disadvantage (79' to 73.5').

Both guys have paths to victories and it's not completely lopsided. I was willing to drop 2 to 2.5 units on Latifi before tape watch.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Siyar is more technical but severily undersized.

Would not say severily, he is 5'11. He is smaller, but can't say he is dwarfed or anything... This is one of the fights that interests me on a personal level because I want to see this Curtis guy humbled... Probably won't see it in this fight, tho.

 

[Stunna77]

Not sure how anyone could say Siyar is more technical, his boxing technique is atrocious. No idea how he generates such power with those bunk ass "hooks" he throws. The main concern for me is Millender's tdd and get-ups as Siyar has shown some wrestling, albeit against Thatch. Most likely scenario is Millender pieces him up at range to a decision.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

10k does not mean the same to others as it does to you.
Didn't you think Botelho should have been at least -400 against Calvillo? Maybe you are not the best judge of what others should bet and at what price

No, I didn't. You either have me confused with someone else, or have a poor memory. On the contrary, I thought that at -130 Botelho the fight was way too close to call, but then leaned towards her after Calvillo collapsing and being unable to stand during the weigh-ins.

If you're going to call me out on a mistake, make sure it's something I actually wrote.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

He's also getting semi aggressive and rude to to other posters just because they don't agree with his opinions on the fight,

Are you describing yourself here? You've always been kind of an asshole towards others in these topics, at least as much as I have. Personally, I don't mind, even when that behavior has been directed towards me in the past (many times prior to these posts), since your analysis is solid and it comes from being a serious bettor, as it does for me.

But it's really the height of hypocrisy for you, of all people on this forum, calling out someone for being "semi aggressive and rude". Work on yourself first.