UFC 232 Jones vs Gustafsson II

DevilsPt2 said:
Anderson defensive wrestling is largely untested as well. The only fighters to have attempted a takedown on him are Justin Jones(who the fook I know), Blacowicz(1/1), Lawlor(1/1), Cummins(0/1) and Texeira(0/4). We also havent seen Latifi gas.

I said kimura because when people see Latifi ITD they're thinking right hand and guillotine, I think he has more ways to finish than that, one being the kimura.
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Agreed. I think there are a few unknowns on both sides here, because of the style matchup, which pushes me even further to the + money side.
 
Vir_Ars said:
I have a Font - Pettis vibe in this fight, too much reach advantage for Ewell
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Ewell definitely doesn't have Font's jab or boxing, he has decent hands though. Font only had a 2.5 inch reach advantage. 7 inch reach advantage is huge for Ewell.

If this fight lasts long enough, it's probably a fight of the night candidate.
 
Let's be real, JJ-Gus 1 was "close" but it wasn't close. Jon won that fight (if there even is a debate there, I'm not sure).

Staring at the prices here for the Under 5 and Under 4.5 rounds and I'm all over them. Rd 4/5 finish too. Maybe it's easy to forget that 2017 Jon pulverized the champ-champ because it went NC, and it's simpler to just reexamine the first JJ-Gus fight...from 5 years ago.

That said, when re-watching their first fight, it does seem like Jon needed a good round and a half to get past the cut over his eye and to maybe adjust to the length Gus brought. He shouldn't need as much time this fight. I think that exhausted Gus was there to be finished late but JJ was very tired himself and, I dunno, maybe figured he had the fight won. That might be mitigated in this fight by Jon not bothering with wasting his energy on td attempts. And you know he's gonna kick the shit outta Gus' legs to take his bounce away.

Have Gus via split/maj at a pretty funny +1055 as a psuedo-hedge because, really, how else will he win?
 
Soccer Steve said:
Let's be real, JJ-Gus 1 was "close" but it wasn't close. Jon won that fight (if there even is a debate there, I'm not sure).

Staring at the prices here for the Under 5 and Under 4.5 rounds and I'm all over them. Rd 4/5 finish too. Maybe it's easy to forget that 2017 Jon pulverized the champ-champ because it went NC, and it's simpler to just reexamine the first JJ-Gus fight...from 5 years ago.

That said, when re-watching their first fight, it does seem like Jon needed a good round and a half to get past the cut over his eye and to maybe adjust to the length Gus brought. He shouldn't need as much time this fight. I think that exhausted Gus was there to be finished late but JJ was very tired himself and, I dunno, maybe figured he had the fight won. That might be mitigated in this fight by Jon not bothering with wasting his energy on td attempts. And you know he's gonna kick the shit outta Gus' legs to take his bounce away.

Have Gus via split/maj at a pretty funny +1055 as a psuedo-hedge because, really, how else will he win?
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Personally like Jones sub a lot at +400. Jones still isn't a massive hitter on the feet (DC completely leaned into that headkick, and it didn't put him all the way out), and Gus is tall enough that Jones won't have the same success with his kicking/knee game that he did against DC.
 
Gugabe said:
Personally like Jones sub a lot at +400. Jones still isn't a massive hitter on the feet (DC completely leaned into that headkick, and it didn't put him all the way out), and Gus is tall enough that Jones won't have the same success with his kicking/knee game that he did against DC.
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Sure. I struggle to see how/when/where this one hits the mat though. They didn't even come close to doing anything on the ground last fight. Jon will connect with at least 2 of those spinning elbows again. I'd call those massive. Can Gus hold himself upright this time around? I don't think he can.
 
Soccer Steve said:
Sure. I struggle to see how/when/where this one hits the mat though. They didn't even come close to doing anything on the ground last fight. Jon will connect with at least 2 of those spinning elbows again. I'd call those massive. Can Gus hold himself upright this time around? I don't think he can.
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Unless Gus gets completely KTFO'd, sub's very live on a rocked Gus, and getting the Takedowns this time is the obvious thing for Jones to focus on fixing.
 
Not sure Jones will get the finish on Gus, at least not like how he did on DC. For a start landing convincing headkicks on a guy Gus's size vs a guy like DC is a big difference and Jones never really had great power in his hands, plus its not like Gus was hurt by him before or really anyone other than Rumble iirc. Sub line is tempting at those odds though.

Given Jones has been talking about the advancement of his boxing which was always the biggest hole in his game I'm expecting it to be a similar style of fight to last time but this time Jones has closed the skill gap in the boxing to a degree where Gus doesn't have the same round winning advantage as before.
 
Cant believe the ghost of Condit is at + odds. Yes, Condit is passed his prime and one foot out the door but Michael Chiesa is fucking horrible. Im on Condit.
 
SalvadorAllende said:
Cant believe the ghost of Condit is at + odds. Yes, Condit is passed his prime and one foot out the door but Michael Chiesa is fucking horrible. Im on Condit.
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Agreed. Want to rewatch some of chiesa's recent fights but I've never been impressed with the guy. Few years ago Condit would be a massive favorite. Obviously he's not the same fighter, but I still think he moves well enough to piece chiesa up.
 
is condit really declined? yeah he looked underwhelming against magny but looked fine against cowboy before getting caught in r2.
 
Condit was terrible v Magny and even worse against Maia. I dont think much of Chiesa but Condit is finished. He is 2-7 since the Diaz fight, retired once, quit against Maia.

Chiesa probably shouldnt be -200 but I dont think Condit wants anything but a paycheque anymore.
 
I fundamentally like the idea of buying low on Condit, but is Chiesa really the right matchup for him?

He has terrible takedown defense, and Chiesa is an elite backtaker. RNC wins over Dariush, Iaquinta, Jim Miller is no joke. He may not be Demian Maia, but Maia had such an easy time with Condit you gotta worry that Chiesa replicates that performance.

Obviously Condit is the better striker, but can he keep it standing long enough to win? He has a shot of KO, but the move up to 170 should help Chiesa chin.

Still think there coulddd be value on Condit @ +170, just not liking that Chiesa has an easier path to victory here
 
burge13 said:
Condit was terrible v Magny and even worse against Maia. I dont think much of Chiesa but Condit is finished. He is 2-7 since the Diaz fight, retired once, quit against Maia.

Chiesa probably shouldnt be -200 but I dont think Condit wants anything but a paycheque anymore.
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Natural brewed has literally said all he is fighting for is money to fund his nitro coffee business

I’d advise against any big plays on him
 
Totals out. Unders I like:

Siyar Bahadurzada/Curtis Millender Under 2½ at -115
Chad Mendes/Alexander Volkanovski Under 2½ at +170
Andrei Arlovski/Walt Harris Under 2½ at -127
Uriah Hall/Bevon Lewis Under 1½ at +131
Cat Zingano/Megan Anderson Under 2½ at +185
Carlos Condit/Michael Chiesa Under 2½ at -145
 
Also:

Petr Yan/Douglas Silva de Andrade Under 2½ at +170
 
Really like the unders on Mendes Volk and Yan Andrade. I think Mendes and Yan should in theory both outclass their opponents comfortably and are both good finishers but equally are facing heavy hitters so are at risk of getting caught, especially Mendes. Got 0.5u on each at +170.
 
Jordan3399 said:
Really like the unders on Mendes Volk and Yan Andrade. I think Mendes and Yan should in theory both outclass their opponents comfortably and are both good finishers but equally are facing heavy hitters so are at risk of getting caught, especially Mendes. Got 0.5u on each at +170.
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Yeah. I also like the Anderson/Zingano & Ewell/Wood unders. Former's pretty binary, where Zingano can finish on ground and Anderson on feet. Latter's two dudes with minimal defence and solid power
 
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