UFC 237 PBP/Discussion

[Jordan3399]

And what pattern in rd 1 did you see? I saw andrade taking a massive beating and having little to no success striking. She barely landed a punch.

She even got her throw countered and almost got armbared

None of what you said happened in the first rd.
It was completely lopsided.

From the start of the second round if thats a better way of putting it. I expected Rose to do well early most top fighters do vs her. Andrade lost R1 to Gadelha and Tecia. Thats a pattern.

But as soon as the second round started Andrade was coming forward and Rose was having to back up a lot, getting hit to the body and legs (I was concerned Andrade would just head hunt) and her overall footwork and plan was coming apart. Thats an incredibly tiring style of fight for her and the kind that will gas you if you don't have great cardio, which she doesn't.

Honestly just annoyed I didn't slam Andrade harder after R1 but was on a slight time delay and the slam cut me off. I'll rewatch but pretty early in the second round I was very confident in Andrade winning.

 

[Broe.]

Lost a lot of money on rose? I never lose a lot of money on WMMA bud but, again, nice troll. Question for ya: Did you think the Pettis superman punch on Stephens was flukey? I lost money on that fight or, rather, I didn't close a 12k parlay on it.

i dont know why you keep using the term troll, im jsut giving my opinion, i dont care if you lsot a lot of money or not, I was jsut saying that that's probably not what you want to hear when you did. It's hard to say the pettis punch was flukey, since he is known to do such things and thompson gets caught sometimes by big shots. But yeah I thought Thompson was winning that fight quite comfortably and I would favour him to win the rematch, but everyone can get caught. In the Andrade namajunas fight i would favour Andrade again to beat Namajunas. I dont think Namajunas can keep up that pace and withstand that pressure for 5 rounds. The slam ko might be flukey but Andrade beating Namajunas even after getting shitkicked for a round was not. Upon rewatching it was pretty obvious to me that Namajunas was slowing down and that the leg kicks and the pressure of andrade was getting to her. But yeah you might think its a fluke, thats fine by me.

 

[Xuh]

Scorecard for Aldana vs Betch. Surprisingly Aldana was 2-0 up in Brazil with all the judges before the finish.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Scorecard for Aldana vs Betch. Surprisingly Aldana was 2-0 up in Brazil with all the judges before the finish.

Its like UFC told the judges to be mindful to NOT rig for Brazil to the point they were biased against Brazil

I was surprised Alves only got round 3 from one judge

 

[Jordan3399]

Just rewatched Rose vs Andrade.

Firstly neither the KD nor Submission were close to a finish. Arm bars and kimuras were exactly what I wanted Rose to attempt as, like we saw they're very hard to hit on someone much stronger than you. Rose needed to take the back and lock in a RNC to have a significant chance of a sub. Andrade easily just cleared the elbow and got her arm out even if she used a lot strength to do it, we knew pretape she had that option and both are BJJ brown belts which people seem to ignore. As for the KD you can clearly see Andrade was just squared up and off balance rather than rocked. Same as when Angela Hill 'dropped' her when really she was just squared up so got knocked off balance.

As for when Andrade was starting to win, you can clearly see her taking over in the last 40 seconds of Round 1. Rose already starts to plant her feet and just wing shots letting Andrade in the pocket. Andrade is beating up the legs and body and Roses footwork is falling apart. Andrade should of been like -300 live by Round 2. Even more gutted I didn't slam that +400 now and only went 1u.

 

[ill800]

Just rewatched Rose vs Andrade.

Firstly neither the KD nor Submission were close to a finish. Arm bars and kimuras were exactly what I wanted Rose to attempt as, like we saw they're very hard to hit on someone much stronger than you. Rose needed to take the back and lock in a RNC to have a significant chance of a sub. Andrade easily just cleared the elbow and got her arm out even if she used a lot strength to do it, we knew pretape she had that option and both are BJJ brown belts which people seem to ignore. As for the KD you can clearly see Andrade was just squared up and off balance rather than rocked. Same as when Angela Hill 'dropped' her when really she was just squared up so got knocked off balance.

As for when Andrade was starting to win, you can clearly see her taking over in the last 40 seconds of Round 1. Rose already starts to plant her feet and just wing shots letting Andrade in the pocket. Andrade is beating up the legs and body and Roses footwork is falling apart. Andrade should of been like -300 live by Round 2. Even more gutted I didn't slam that +400 now and only went 1u.

Did you just say andrade should’ve been -300 after rd 1?

Unbelievable at the means people go through to justify what they say.

It was such ez money and the line was so off that you put a whole unit on it.

 

[Soccer Steve]

From the start of the second round if thats a better way of putting it. I expected Rose to do well early most top fighters do vs her. Andrade lost R1 to Gadelha and Tecia. Thats a pattern.

But as soon as the second round started Andrade was coming forward and Rose was having to back up a lot, getting hit to the body and legs (I was concerned Andrade would just head hunt) and her overall footwork and plan was coming apart. Thats an incredibly tiring style of fight for her and the kind that will gas you if you don't have great cardio, which she doesn't.

Honestly just annoyed I didn't slam Andrade harder after R1 but was on a slight time delay and the slam cut me off. I'll rewatch but pretty early in the second round I was very confident in Andrade winning.

I’m not wanting to get a big arguement rolling but I was seeing the same things here as you. I was staring at Rose the entire fight and, imo, she was degrading. I went 1.25u live on JA and feel that it was the perfect amount at the time. The slam came too quick for us. But hey, better early than never...

 

[Jordan3399]

Did you just say andrade should’ve been -300 after rd 1?

Unbelievable at the means people go through to justify what they say.

It was such ez money and the line was so off that you put a whole unit on it.

I don't think you quite understand the match up. Andrade had already started to takeover, Rose wasn't getting that momentum back and she probably needed a finish within the next round maybe two rounds or she was going to lose. If you cap that at more than 25% (Which is probably being generous) then sure she shouldn't of been -300.

I didn't slam it harder because I was tired af at 6am and my stream went to shit briefly so I was trying to get all my livebetting stuff going again as the fight started and only got a unit down on one bookie but in hindsight it was a poor decision not to go harder and did try but the line suspended and then the slam cut me off the opportunity.

 

[Soccer Steve]

I don't think you quite understand the match up. Andrade had already started to takeover, Rose wasn't getting that momentum back and she probably needed a finish within the next round maybe two rounds or she was going to lose. If you cap that at more than 25% (Which is probably being generous) then sure she shouldn't of been -300.

I didn't slam it harder because I was tired af at 6am and my stream went to shit briefly so I was trying to get all my livebetting stuff going again as the fight started and only got a unit down on one bookie but in hindsight it was a poor decision not to go harder and did try but the line suspended and then the slam cut me off the opportunity.

Move to Canada, buy the ppv’s, access all NA bookies, get rich, get sleep.

 

[Jordan3399]

I’m not wanting to get a big arguement rolling but I was seeing the same things here as you. I was staring at Rose the entire fight and, imo, she was degrading. I went 1.25u live on JA and feel that it was the perfect amount at the time. The slam came too quick for us. But hey, better early than never...

Pretty much, I was expect Andrade to just outpoint her for a bit until Rose really started to slow in the 4th and 5th before maybe finishing so would of had plenty of time to add. But really rewatching it a couple times and I was really impressed by Andrade and how technical she kept a lot of things. Rose did have that early success but you can pretty much pinpoint when Roses success ended and the fight had slipped away. Once Andrade got back to her feet (I really liked how good her get up was, kept it technical which showed her brain wasn't scrambled) after 'the knockdown' the momentum totally shifted.

 

[Soccer Steve]

Pretty much, I was expect Andrade to just outpoint her for a bit until Rose really started to slow in the 4th and 5th before maybe finishing so would of had plenty of time to add. But really rewatching it a couple times and I was really impressed by Andrade and how technical she kept a lot of things. Rose did have that early success but you can pretty much pinpoint when Roses success ended and the fight had slipped away. Once Andrade got back to her feet (I really liked how good her get up was, kept it technical which showed her brain wasn't scrambled) after 'the knockdown' the momentum totally shifted.

Agreed. It was very predictable really.
Like the rest of the card. Extremely predictable! Even Aldo inactivity + being leaned on. Nog and Silva and Alves and Penn being, frankly, old.
I forced too much last night.

 

[ill800]

I don't think you quite understand the match up. Andrade had already started to takeover, Rose wasn't getting that momentum back and she probably needed a finish within the next round maybe two rounds or she was going to lose. If you cap that at more than 25% (Which is probably being generous) then sure she shouldn't of been -300.

I didn't slam it harder because I was tired af at 6am and my stream went to shit briefly so I was trying to get all my livebetting stuff going again as the fight started and only got a unit down on one bookie but in hindsight it was a poor decision not to go harder and did try but the line suspended and then the slam cut me off the opportunity.

Andrade wasn’t taking over anything in rd1

She got completely dominated and outclassed.

She was still snapping andrades head back with almost everything she landed in rd 2.

Just because andrade had success in rd 2 doesn’t mean that the fight was over. There’s no way any book would’ve had andrade -300 even after rd 2.

There is no telling where that fight would’ve went had rose not been finished by that slam.

I’m not confident andrade would’ve completely taken over based on rd2. You can’t say rose wouldn’t have gotten that momentum back, especially with how rose was rocking andrade with everything she landed. You are not going to sustain that first rd beating through a five rd fight

 

[lifeisgood12345]

I don't think you quite understand the match up. Andrade had already started to takeover, Rose wasn't getting that momentum back and she probably needed a finish within the next round maybe two rounds or she was going to lose. If you cap that at more than 25% (Which is probably being generous) then sure she shouldn't of been -300.

I didn't slam it harder because I was tired af at 6am and my stream went to shit briefly so I was trying to get all my livebetting stuff going again as the fight started and only got a unit down on one bookie but in hindsight it was a poor decision not to go harder and did try but the line suspended and then the slam cut me off the opportunity.

I don't think you understand anything about anything. So far today you have said Stephens + Moicano are better than Volkanovski and Andrade should have been -300 after a 10-8 round 1.

Those are the two worst takes I have heard in a while, impressive that you squeezed both of them in one day.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Andrade wasn’t taking over anything in rd1

She got completely dominated and outclassed.

She was still snapping andrades head back with almost everything she landed in rd 2.

Just because andrade had success in rd 2 doesn’t mean that the fight was over. There’s no way any book would’ve had andrade -300 even after rd 2.

There is no telling where that fight would’ve went had rose not been finished by that slam.

I’m not confident andrade would’ve completely taken over based on rd2. You can’t say rose wouldn’t have gotten that momentum back, especially with how rose was rocking andrade with everything she landed. You are not going to sustain that first rd beating through a five rd fight

Yeah, a lot of this is hindsight bias, and crafting a narrative after the fact. Not only was Andrade getting beaten up in round 2, but her attempts to go for broke with loaded-up punches were either evaded or didn't particularly bother Rose, contrary to the cheers of the crowd.

It's very doubtful Andrade could have kept that up for much longer either, both because of the damage she was sustaining and how energy-depleting that style of fighting is.

She managed to find an out with a slam because Rose held on to the kimura instead of giving it up. Cool. It's fighting, and random shit can and will happen. But using that slam knockout to retroactively go back and claim that Rose was somehow wilting and that Andrade was really coming back hard is the kind of stupid, dishonest narrative best left to hack MMA journalists, not serious gamblers.

 

[Jordan3399]

Damn all the Rose bettors are triggered af aren't they? Just completely ignore any analysis. Go and actually tape Rose and Andrade.

Rose fades and Andrade gets better as the fight goes on and we could see it smh.

@ill800 Rose always fades when pressured especially when people mix strikes hitting the body and legs. Her footwork was going to shit and she was making the same mistakes as she did vs Karolina at the end of R1 and continued in R2. Of course no book is going to cap it like that, thats why we make money, outsmarting the books but I wouldn't give Rose anymore than a 25% of winning she gets put on the backfoot making all those mistakes and getting hit like she was.

@lifeisgood12345 @PolarBearPaulVarelans lets be frank here you both should really of quit betting a while ago. Whats your combined loss for last night? I mean Paul you were up 6u for the year then went down what? 10u last night?

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Responding to factual breakdowns of the main event with ad hominem. I wouldn't expect anything less from little Jordie.

@lifeisgood12345 @PolarBearPaulVarelans lets be frank here you both should really of quit betting a while ago. Whats your combined loss for last night? I mean Paul you were up 6u for the year then went down what? 10u last night?

Just under 10 units between UFC and Bellator, yeah. Have a long ways to go if I want to catch your record of losing 20 units a few weeks back, though!

And unlike you, I'm completely honest about my results and don't make up bullshit about miraculous live-bet wins every win turning 8 unit loss nights into break even, posting bets AFTER results are known, or most creatively, finding ways to claim profit on losing bets where no live-betting exists. You really outdid yourself with that last one, Jordie.

(Also, holy shit, in looking up that last link, I realized Jordie DELETED his original Bellator bets that showed the loss. Again, why does anyone on this forum take this lying child seriously?)

 

[ill800]

Damn all the Rose bettors are triggered af aren't they? Just completely ignore any analysis. Go and actually tape Rose and Andrade.

Rose fades and Andrade gets better as the fight goes on and we could see it smh.

@ill800 Rose always fades when pressured especially when people mix strikes hitting the body and legs. Her footwork was going to shit and she was making the same mistakes as she did vs Karolina at the end of R1 and continued in R2. Of course no book is going to cap it like that, thats why we make money, outsmarting the books but I wouldn't give Rose anymore than a 25% of winning she gets put on the backfoot making all those mistakes and getting hit like she was.

@lifeisgood12345 @PolarBearPaulVarelans lets be frank here you both should really of quit betting a while ago. Whats your combined loss for last night? I mean Paul you were up 6u for the year then went down what? 10u last night?

I watched the tape. I had 6.5 units on andrade prefight

You can go back through the prefight thread and read my analysis

That round one was an utter disaster for andrade. Rose beat her butt in every way conceivable. I would be surprised if andrade landed 10 strikes. The skill gap striking and speed wise was so wide.

I’ll just say this:
I don’t believe rose was done after rd 1 and she wouldn’t have had anymore success. Tape didn’t indicate that. What did she do in rd 5 vs Joanna?

What am I pissed about? Hitting rose ml heavy after rd 1 instead of fdngtd. Fdngtd was a better price and a much better play. There were moments in rd 1 where I wondered if andrade would make it through the round. It was the play I was looking for but rose ml popped up first and fdngtd after I had already put a massive amount down on rose

Losing a ton of money betting baseball has effected my mma betting. I’m making poor decisions to try to ensure I don’t lose money. I’m trying to make back money lost.
And last night I didn’t have the money to make the live bets I wanted, until of course the main event when I had a chunk of my previously tied up bankroll back.

I’m going to be pissed off about this for a while. That’s two fights in the past month we’re ive hung myself live betting. There’s no reason why I should be losing these events. I’m betting massive amounts on crappy lines. It’s just stupid of me. I’m trying to make too much happen because of where I’m at in life right now.

 

[Soccer Steve]

...is the kind of stupid, dishonest narrative best left to hack MMA journalists, not serious gamblers.

Leaving you where, exactly? Arrogance is fleeting and karma’s a bitch, eh?

 

[Jordan3399]

I watched the tape. I had 6.5 units on andrade prefight

You can go back through the prefight thread and read my analysis

That round one was an utter disaster for andrade. Rose beat her butt in every way conceivable. I would be surprised if andrade landed 10 strikes. The skill gap striking and speed wise was so wide.

I’ll just say this:
I don’t believe rose was done after rd 1 and she wouldn’t have had anymore success. Tape didn’t indicate that. What did she do in rd 5 vs Joanna?

What am I pissed about? Hitting rose ml heavy after rd 1 instead of fdngtd. Fdngtd was a better price and a much better play. There were moments in rd 1 where I wondered if andrade would make it through the round. It was the play I was looking for but rose ml popped up first and fdngtd after I had already put a massive amount down on rose

Losing a ton of money betting baseball has effected my mma betting. I’m making poor decisions to try to ensure I don’t lose money. I’m trying to make back money lost.
And last night I didn’t have the money to make the live bets I wanted, until of course the main event when I had a chunk of my previously tied up bankroll back.

I’m going to be pissed off about this for a while. That’s two fights in the past month we’re ive hung myself live betting. There’s no reason why I should be losing these events. I’m betting massive amounts on crappy lines. It’s just stupid of me. I’m trying to make too much happen because of where I’m at in life right now.

I get your problem trying to force stuff, its hard to resist if your down. At least your recognising it though, build slow and you''ll get there its just a learning experience, I know I still regularly screw up I just try and not repeat the mistakes. I'd lower your unit size and just work on getting a consistent ROI and return then invest once you know you can make the money back. I spent a year betting small learning and then this year have been quite aggressive with my betting and unit size.

As for the fight I think its a case of recognising the impact of pressure on cardio, idk what your background is martial arts wise but fighting backwards is really tiring and Andrade was making Rose do that. Then Rose was planting to counter but just letting Andrade get in the pocket to unload. So essentially Rose was going to slowdown and at the same time Andrade strike rate was only going to increase. With regards to say the Joanna fight there was no pressuring there, both girls maintained a pretty consistent range and Joanna didn't really make her work and slow. Rose technique is pretty efficient energywise but going back she wastes a lot. Still though the lowkicks and fight in general were getting to Rose in the 3rd and 4th which Joanna won as she slowed before Roses team psyched her up and she came out better in the 5th. Rose vs Andrade was all about the pressure and whether Rose could deal with it for 25 minutes. As soon as I could see that slipping at the very end of R1 it was very unlikely Rose was getting that momentum back.

 

[Jordan3399]

Responding to factual breakdowns of the main event with ad hominem. I wouldn't expect anything less from little Jordie.



Just under 10 units between UFC and Bellator, yeah. Have a long ways to go if I want to catch your record of losing 20 units a few weeks back, though!

And unlike you, I'm completely honest about my results and don't make up bullshit about miraculous live-bet wins every win turning 8 unit loss nights into break even, posting bets AFTER results are known, or most creatively, finding ways to claim profit on losing bets where no live-betting exists. You really outdid yourself with that last one, Jordie.

(Also, holy shit, in looking up that last link, I realized Jordie DELETED his original Bellator bets that showed the loss. Again, why does anyone on this forum take this lying child seriously?)

Deleted bets what are you talking about? I lost 18 the other week which was a screw up I've learnt from unlike you who still dumps massive dumb bets then writes paragraphs of excuses (Chandlers chin isn't gone lmao he just got caught flush behind the ear which destroyed his equilibrium). Shit happens but I've recovered that now, I bet aggressively so have big wins and losses (mainly wins). I'm up 28u since that loss and was up 25u in the 2 weeks prior. I'm happy with that and up 80u this year.

Remember ages ago when I said you were overconfident after early success and now you've gone from tripling your money to just digging yourself a deeper and deeper whole with every event?