UFC 243 Whittaker vs Adesanya

Found a few rather wide props I liked this morning.

Riddell KO +250 - Riddell has KOd all but one opponent and both Mullarkey's losses were KOs. The one guy Riddell specifically didn't KO he decided outwrestle to a dec while here he keeps talking about making a 50k statement. Think if he wins it's by KO the vast majority of the time.

Dos Santos +2000 - Mainly a fade on Anderson being an absolute mess grappling, even with back to back training camps for grapplers she still managed to shit the bed last fight.

Matthews KO +800 - think this might actually be his most likely path to victory. Akmans style is hard to win rounds against with his forward pressure (which Matthews is susceptible to) and ability to keep it standing. He is chinny however getting KO'd twice as an amateur and getting rocked twice last fight. Matthews showed his power is better at 170 after repeatedly dropping Leach. Conversely I also like Akmans Dec line as without landing those big shots to hurt him or mixing in TDs I see Matthews struggling to win rounds.

Kim KO/ KO R1 +2200 - Kim can crack and Kassems defence is awful. Kim basically TKO'd the Korean Zombie sparring by breaking his orbital bone so I like her chances vs a blown up strawweight with terrible striking defence. Think if it happens it's most likely early on.

Also kinda tempted by Izzy via Sub +2000. He showed some good sub attempts vs Kelvin and with Whittaker mixing in wrestling I can see it happening again here, especially if Whittaker shoots a TD while rocked which he did a lot with Romero I can see him getting caught in a high elbow guillotine like Gastelum was.
 
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for anyone interested i managed to get hold of riddell's most recent fight:
 
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Anyone know why almost all the over unders for the last couple events have been set at 1.5?
 
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UFC 243 – Adesanya vs. Whittaker Sunday 6th October (NZ time zone)

One of the most anticipated fights in the UFC for 2019. It is Australia Vs New Zealand and the rivalry is real when it comes to these two countries, similar to USA and Canada but more intense. This is the biggest combat sports fight between the 2 countries and will be historical.

Whittaker is riding a 9 fight win streak and 8-0 since moving up to middleweight. He has elite striking, his cardio is good, great chin and fight IQ. I have not been able to spot holes in his game since his move to middleweight. Whittaker’s last 2 fights was against Yoel Romero. In his first fight, Whittaker suffered a grade two medial ligament injury to his left knee in the opening round and still manage to grind out a 5 round unanimous decision. In their second outing, Whittaker sustained a broken hand(thumb) in, you guessed it, the first round. Yet Whittaker was able to fight again, grind out 5 rounds to get the W via split decision. This fight however was close and some still think that Romero won. We learnt from the two fights that Whittaker is able to overcome adversity and has the heart and grit of a true warrior. Scheduled to defend his belt against Kelvin Gastelum back in April, Whittaker suffered a hernia injury that had him hospitalised where he had to pull out of that fight.

Adesanya has an undefeated record of 17-0 and 6-0 in the UFC. Debut in the UFC was only back in Feb 2018, won 5 fights within the space of 12 months. He fought for the interim title back in April when Whittaker pulled out of his fight (hernia) and won a unanimous decision victory over Gastelum. That fight is a contender for fight of the year as it was a war – similar to Whittaker Vs Romero II. The fight was 2-2 going into the 5th round where Adesanya found the “mongrel” in him and put on a dominant performance to seal last round and the interim title.

A big part of Whittaker’s game is his high output striking and footwork. When Whittaker throws combinations, his goal is to touch his opponent even if the strikes are blocked. This allows a small window of time for him to use his footwork after landing a strike(even when blocked) to not be in range for a counter and if his opponent tries to counter, he’s ready for a counter of his own - being one step ahead. Whittaker has also won gold in the Amateur Australian National Wrestling Championships. We don’t know how good his wrestling is but it’s worth noting that this may be implemented into his game plan.

Adesanya has a 6.5inch reach advantage over Whittaker and it will be interesting to see if he is able use this. The key for Adesanya will be to use his head movement and footwork to avoid Whittaker’s strikes, not block them, but to completely avoid them, this should leave Whittaker open for the counter or at the very least, get some space to reset for his striking. Another key to victory for Adesanya being the one to strike first. Don’t only look for the counter but be first to strike and overwhelm Whittaker with striking accuracy and implement Whittaker’s game right back at him.

Odds currently $1.90 Adesanya and $1.90 Whittaker

Live betting tips: this is an extremely hard fight to do a pre analysis for live or pre betting, the fight will be evenly matched throughout. I will be looking out for Whittaker to try close the distance and clinch, if he’s able to take Adesanya down and hold him down then that maybe his key to victory. However I expect this fight to be a stand up battle. If Adesanya is able to completely avoid Whittaker’s strikes and able to land his counter shots, or if he’s able to be the first to strike then I perhaps will put down on Adesanya. If Whittaker is able to land his shots (even if blocked) and give Adesanya no time to reset or counter then maybe I will put down on Whittaker. Likelihood is I probably won’t be betting on this fight and will be watching to enjoy.

Pre bet if you must: as always I would not recommend to place bets before the fight starts but if you must I’d go Adesanya based on the fact that he’s been the more active fighter where Whittaker has not fought since June 2018 and has had multiple injuries. I also think that Adesanya has been preparing for Whittaker when Whittaker won the belt back in November 2017 - before Adesanya even started his career in the UFC.

As always, responsible gambling and bet at your own risk, good luck.
 
What if Whittaker's offensive wrestling is very good now?

We know his defensive wrestling is very good, very hard to take down and very hard to keep down. It would stand to reason that in the time he spent to improve his TDD so much he also equally worked on his offensive wrestling.

He was invited to compete in the commonwealth games for Australia as a wrestler. I'm not saying that makes him an amazing wrestler but I would say that probably makes him a very good high level wrestler. Also I'm not saying that Olympic style wrestling will translate to his MMA game, but as a guy who already had very good MMA experience I'm sure it would be much easier for him to utilize what is good from the Olymic style and merge it into his MMA game.

We didn't see offensive wrestling against Yoel or Jacare, but they aren't really the guys you want to be wrestling with or taking to the ground for obvious reasons.

Izzy on the other hand is just the type of guy you would want to take down if you feel his stand up is too dangerous to compete with for 5 rounds.

From the workout footage today Whittaker looks to be in great condition, he's packed on more muscle, I just re-watched Yoel 2 and although Whittaker is in good shape I wouldn't say he looks great in there. Now he seems to have fully filled out his frame at middle weight. That means during this time off with injuries he's clearly had time to train hard, and importantly lift heavy. A key in recovery from a hernia is no heavy lifting. The fact he's put on muscle mass says to me he has fully recovered from the injury with plenty of time to spare to train, and probably also improve in terms of technique.

Something else to consider is Izzy fighting so much the past year or so. That could lead to him being more shop worn and possibly carrying some nagging injuries, but, also - If he's been fighting, and basically going from training camp to training camp, where has he found time to add new weapons to his game? Fighters always say the biggest improvements are made out of camp, that's where you learn new skills and ingrain them into your fighting system. I'm not saying Izzy will have nothing new to show but I doubt there have been any major additions, more small improvements on what he already does well.

That says to me he is the easier fighter to gameplan for, you can go back a year and see everything he has in his arsenal, barring a few new wrinkles, and prepare for it. That's not to say Izzy's game isn't great and very dangerous but it is to say it's more than likely going to be very much so the same game as his last fight.

To a degree Whittaker is coming in as an unknown. His basic style will be the same but who knows what's new and what he had to show in his last fights but due to the style match ups couldn't?

I think Whittaker is just as big a brute and power threat as guys like Costa and Romero but with a much more well rounded game, better technique and strong cardio. Whittaker for the first time in years, due to the fights that he's had, can actually be an aggressor and apply pressure. Kelvin was able to pressure and push his way into boxing range repeatedly. Whittaker is bigger, stronger, has more weapons and is more adjusted to middle weight than Kelvin. There is no reason any success Kelvin had can not be repeated by Whittaker.

For me, on paper, this is Whittaker's fight.

The X factor watching both guys fights back is the speed discrepancy. Izzy is faster, more fluid and his strikes can hit at any moment.

People by enlarge are expecting a majority striking match, and I think we will see a lot of that but I also think Whittaker will be more than happy to grab onto any grappling opportunity that he gets. If Izzy slips for a split second and Whittaker is able to grab his waist he will take it and hold on and use the position to his full advantage.

If Whittaker is under prepared or just not able to deal with the speed difference we will see a bull and matador type fight with Izzy sniping Whittaker... But, if Whittaker uses all of his tools and refuses to play the game we will see Isreal looking like Anderson Silva when he fought Cannonier. Cannonier gave Silva nothing to counter and nothing to time and he didn't fear his power in an all out attack. Thus leaving Silva with little option but to get backed up and hit with very hard very powerful basic strikes from Cannonier.

At even money, and some books showing Whittaker as a slight dog, he is clearly the pick. Izzy has one route to victory, Whittaker can win it anywhere the fight goes.
 
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