I think we can agree that the ptv for Eye is takedowns. Well, you Eye bettors had better get your vocal chords lubed with tea and honey because I think you're going to be screaming at your TVs for the whole fight if you play her.
She waits until there's all of 1:40 left in the fight with JRC to finally attempt her first TD. She gets it, off a clinch trip, no less. This single TD very well may have won her the fight, little did she know.
Giving us a preview of the Shevchenko death shot yet to come, Faria nearly kicks her head off in the 1st. In true WMMA fashion, they then proceed to scissor for 4 straight minutes. In the 2nd, Eye is able to pull guard to take Faria down and takes a dominant round. She again takes Faria down in the 3rd and would coast to a win from there but decides: no, I'll let her back up again LOL. Not to be outdone, Faria uses her new found freedom to, you guessed it, immediately clinch up. Twisted up, they fall down together and Eye muscles herself on to top position. Eye then boasts about how she's a great wrestler and no one cares about strikers in the post-fight interview. OK. She almost got KO'd twice by Faria but sure, you keep on not caring about striking. Let's see how that works out for you....
Against Chook, Eye goes for exactly 1 TD with 5 seconds left in the 1st and is easily stuffed. Actually, it looks like she would've ended up on bottom out of it. In the 2nd round: nada, not even an attempt. In the 3rd, again she waits until the last 5 seconds to shoot a TD and Chook makes her eats some punches for the trouble and again Eye would've maybe ended up on bottom had the bell not rung. In the real world that fight is a Draw.
Now Vivi.
In the 1st, Talita shoots from a mile away and Vivi stuffs it easily and ends up on top. In that short sequence we see Vivi actually looking quite dangerous against the bigger girl. She looks to have a choke under the chin just as the bell rings. In the 2nd, Vivi stuffs a very good intial entry and impressively defends the chains as well. When she actually bothers to try (which is basically never, by the way), Eye just isn't relentless like this with TDs. But back to this fight, Vivi could've taken Talita's back at the end of the lengthy TD attempt sequence but she breaks away instead. Vivi is noticeably tired after the grapple and gets hit clean a few times which she shuts down with a nice reactive double herself. Vivi comes out in the 3rd looking completely fresh again and finally, as we all know, a short notice dog, she lands a great KO on Talita.
Then she fights a wily, been-there vet in Davis. While fresh Vivi lights her up in the 1st. In the 2nd, off a sweep not a TD, Davis gets on top and beats Araujo up. I will concede that Araujo is terrible off her back. But it's not that easy to get her there. In the 3rd, however, a near-gassed Vivi stuffs 2 good takedown attempts (iirc she may have stuffed another one in the 2nd as well) and then continues to batter and bloody up Davis. Araujo tires because she has an inefficient, high energy output and because Davis keeps on walking her down in zombie mode. Eye doesn't have this kind of relentless pressure. I will stop just short of saying Vivi outright gasses; she obviously tires but she also seems to have quite good recovery during the round breaks.
On the feet, Aruajo is going to beat Eye up. She's too quick, too agile, too mobile, too powerful. Ironically, this might force Eye to go for takedowns where she might not've otherwise. But how many does she attempt? Like maybe she'll try for 3 all fight, instead of her normal 1 or 2? Or none at all? And then can she get Araujo down? I'm not convinced, at all.
Have fun losing your hair with Eye, lads. You guys might be right. She might go in there and Belal her way to a dominant win. But I think you expect her to do something that she's never done before. I don't see how you can be confident in Eye doing what needs to be done. She is very, very dumb in the Octagon. And I don't think it's all that easy to both track Vivi down and take her down. I may be made to look a fool if Vivi gets grapple-fucked but at least I do know exactly what my girl is gonna go in there to do.
I'll end on the Shevchenko kill shot. That was a fucking vicious KO with Eye lying out cold for many minutes. And that was only back in June; 189 days between it and this fight on the 14th. I'd be giving it at least 365 days but OK, it's just your brain.... Maybe it forces Eye to play a safer, grapple-heavy approach. This is possible. Just like it's possible she fights scared and tentative and gets smashed by a hard hitter again.
edit:
What good is all that without talking about betting?
1.5u at -138.
-175 is a little steep now. Eye is basically a complete pass for me no matter what, outside of the bizarre/stupid.