Absolute shite level analysis, not surprising from a worthless poster like yourself. Jessica won three fights in a row as an underdog since she dropped to flyweight before running into Valentina of course who no one expected her to beat. If Jessica is shite then so is the entire UFC women's flyweight dvivision except for Valentina. This is a gambling forum, we are here to separate the shite from the Shinola and decide if necessary who is less shite to make money.
UFC 245 Usman vs Covington
- Thread starter null
- Start date
- Joined
- Mar 10, 2017
- Messages
- 9,206
- Reaction score
- 926
I’m trying to gauge whether his grappling is effective enough to win rounds.
to beat kkf you need volume, pressure and good takedowns. He has moments where he pressures but not nearly enough to bother kkf.
His game plans have never been wrestle heavy. He likes to box. And even when he does secure takedowns it’s not like he has a heavy top game. Guys generally get up.
His subs have came off his back or from him countering grappling exchanges
- Joined
- Nov 19, 2017
- Messages
- 9,851
- Reaction score
- 3,398
Isn't it though? Kinda?
- Joined
- Dec 22, 2015
- Messages
- 2,545
- Reaction score
- 1,654
Hope you aren't going too heavy on Teymur, the guy has no self control, no ability to stick to a gameplan, and poor cardio. He's pulled leg locks from top position in multiple fights. In his last fight whenever he would land a big shot on Jo he'd initiate the clinch and go for TDs.
It's true that Hooper has no reliable way to get this to the mat and gets wrecked on the feet, but you just know Teymur is gonna do some dumb shit to throw this away. He's one of the last guys I'd trust with any significant money.
- Joined
- Mar 7, 2006
- Messages
- 43,754
- Reaction score
- 2,844
Lol - in all of my years here, this is the first time I can remember JimGunn really spitting venom!
- Joined
- Sep 13, 2018
- Messages
- 1,639
- Reaction score
- 0
I haven't been here that long but yeah, he's pissed... :sniper:<Lmaoo>
- Joined
- Sep 13, 2018
- Messages
- 1,639
- Reaction score
- 0
What do you guys think about this Omar/Heinish(sp) match up? How is that fickle gas tank of Omar going to hold up?
- Joined
- Mar 10, 2017
- Messages
- 9,206
- Reaction score
- 926
Gas tank has looked solid
heinsch is the one who is questionable after showing a lack of tools offensively vs Brunson and gassing badly
I’m on the dog
- Joined
- Mar 10, 2017
- Messages
- 9,206
- Reaction score
- 926
The point is that it doesn't matter if you think any one particular WMMA fighter sucks or even if you think that all the women's flyweights other than Valentina suck or even if you believe that all women suck at fighting compared to men. It's about the relative betting value of the matchups that are actually being made that matters with gambling. Each fight is its own contest and can be bet to win money as such regardless of one's opinion of one fighter in a vacuum or overall opinion of the division and its place in the sport. Of course one could always just pass instead. That aside, it's also true that objectively Jessica Eye is a top 5 UFC flyweight according to multiple recognized ranking systems. So simply saying that she sucks is utterly meaningless from a betting perspective at least.
https://www.ufc.com/rankings
http://rankingmma.com/ufc-rankings/womens-flyweight/
https://www.tapology.com/rankings/3424-ufc-womens-flyweight-rankings
- Joined
- Sep 13, 2018
- Messages
- 1,639
- Reaction score
- 0
Thing is, is Omari the athlete that Brunson is? Can he neutralize Ian like Brunson did?
- Joined
- Nov 19, 2017
- Messages
- 9,851
- Reaction score
- 3,398
Oh. Fair enough.
- Joined
- Mar 10, 2017
- Messages
- 9,206
- Reaction score
- 926
I think Omari is pretty tough to deal with.
he’s a tank
he’s got power and wrestling and if heinsch can’t land a big shot or take him down he could end up gassing again and being on the wrong side of a decision
I like heinsch but Brunson really exposed the holes in his striking
pre tape I capped the fight around evens
I’ll get on them next
- Joined
- Aug 25, 2015
- Messages
- 6,520
- Reaction score
- 0
I can see you're very upset because I always bring up your huge weekly loses. It's okay Jim, you'll turn things around.
- Joined
- Dec 10, 2015
- Messages
- 2,552
- Reaction score
- 3
I like Teymur to KO Hooper. Yes he is liable to shit the bed at any moment so you cannot bet big, 100% agree there, but the gulf on the feet is incredibly wide and Hooper has zero wrestling ability. If Teymur fights smart, huge if i know, he makes it look quite easy IMO by tearing up Hooper's lead leg until his movement slows and starching him with an overhand right. The worry, outside of Teymur initiating or engaging in the grappling, is that Hooper is crazy durable and just takes the punishment until Teymur gasses. After watching the Alcocks fight, I don't believe that to be the case as he was rocked multiple times by a far lesser striker. I don't think this is a Danny Henry situation and quite like Teymur at + money.
Last edited:
piglord
Black Belt
- Joined
- Sep 5, 2014
- Messages
- 5,904
- Reaction score
- 321
<45>
- Joined
- Apr 7, 2016
- Messages
- 2,452
- Reaction score
- 28
I think we can agree that the ptv for Eye is takedowns. Well, you Eye bettors had better get your vocal chords lubed with tea and honey because I think you're going to be screaming at your TVs for the whole fight if you play her.
She waits until there's all of 1:40 left in the fight with JRC to finally attempt her first TD. She gets it, off a clinch trip, no less. This single TD very well may have won her the fight, little did she know.
Giving us a preview of the Shevchenko death shot yet to come, Faria nearly kicks her head off in the 1st. In true WMMA fashion, they then proceed to scissor for 4 straight minutes. In the 2nd, Eye is able to pull guard to take Faria down and takes a dominant round. She again takes Faria down in the 3rd and would coast to a win from there but decides: no, I'll let her back up again LOL. Not to be outdone, Faria uses her new found freedom to, you guessed it, immediately clinch up. Twisted up, they fall down together and Eye muscles herself on to top position. Eye then boasts about how she's a great wrestler and no one cares about strikers in the post-fight interview. OK. She almost got KO'd twice by Faria but sure, you keep on not caring about striking. Let's see how that works out for you....
Against Chook, Eye goes for exactly 1 TD with 5 seconds left in the 1st and is easily stuffed. Actually, it looks like she would've ended up on bottom out of it. In the 2nd round: nada, not even an attempt. In the 3rd, again she waits until the last 5 seconds to shoot a TD and Chook makes her eats some punches for the trouble and again Eye would've maybe ended up on bottom had the bell not rung. In the real world that fight is a Draw.
Now Vivi.
In the 1st, Talita shoots from a mile away and Vivi stuffs it easily and ends up on top. In that short sequence we see Vivi actually looking quite dangerous against the bigger girl. She looks to have a choke under the chin just as the bell rings. In the 2nd, Vivi stuffs a very good intial entry and impressively defends the chains as well. When she actually bothers to try (which is basically never, by the way), Eye just isn't relentless like this with TDs. But back to this fight, Vivi could've taken Talita's back at the end of the lengthy TD attempt sequence but she breaks away instead. Vivi is noticeably tired after the grapple and gets hit clean a few times which she shuts down with a nice reactive double herself. Vivi comes out in the 3rd looking completely fresh again and finally, as we all know, a short notice dog, she lands a great KO on Talita.
Then she fights a wily, been-there vet in Davis. While fresh Vivi lights her up in the 1st. In the 2nd, off a sweep not a TD, Davis gets on top and beats Araujo up. I will concede that Araujo is terrible off her back. But it's not that easy to get her there. In the 3rd, however, a near-gassed Vivi stuffs 2 good takedown attempts (iirc she may have stuffed another one in the 2nd as well) and then continues to batter and bloody up Davis. Araujo tires because she has an inefficient, high energy output and because Davis keeps on walking her down in zombie mode. Eye doesn't have this kind of relentless pressure. I will stop just short of saying Vivi outright gasses; she obviously tires but she also seems to have quite good recovery during the round breaks.
On the feet, Aruajo is going to beat Eye up. She's too quick, too agile, too mobile, too powerful. Ironically, this might force Eye to go for takedowns where she might not've otherwise. But how many does she attempt? Like maybe she'll try for 3 all fight, instead of her normal 1 or 2? Or none at all? And then can she get Araujo down? I'm not convinced, at all.
Have fun losing your hair with Eye, lads. You guys might be right. She might go in there and Belal her way to a dominant win. But I think you expect her to do something that she's never done before. I don't see how you can be confident in Eye doing what needs to be done. She is very, very dumb in the Octagon. And I don't think it's all that easy to both track Vivi down and take her down. I may be made to look a fool if Vivi gets grapple-fucked but at least I do know exactly what my girl is gonna go in there to do.
I'll end on the Shevchenko kill shot. That was a fucking vicious KO with Eye lying out cold for many minutes. And that was only back in June; 189 days between it and this fight on the 14th. I'd be giving it at least 365 days but OK, it's just your brain.... Maybe it forces Eye to play a safer, grapple-heavy approach. This is possible. Just like it's possible she fights scared and tentative and gets smashed by a hard hitter again.
edit:
What good is all that without talking about betting?
1.5u at -138.
-175 is a little steep now. Eye is basically a complete pass for me no matter what, outside of the bizarre/stupid.
She waits until there's all of 1:40 left in the fight with JRC to finally attempt her first TD. She gets it, off a clinch trip, no less. This single TD very well may have won her the fight, little did she know.
Giving us a preview of the Shevchenko death shot yet to come, Faria nearly kicks her head off in the 1st. In true WMMA fashion, they then proceed to scissor for 4 straight minutes. In the 2nd, Eye is able to pull guard to take Faria down and takes a dominant round. She again takes Faria down in the 3rd and would coast to a win from there but decides: no, I'll let her back up again LOL. Not to be outdone, Faria uses her new found freedom to, you guessed it, immediately clinch up. Twisted up, they fall down together and Eye muscles herself on to top position. Eye then boasts about how she's a great wrestler and no one cares about strikers in the post-fight interview. OK. She almost got KO'd twice by Faria but sure, you keep on not caring about striking. Let's see how that works out for you....
Against Chook, Eye goes for exactly 1 TD with 5 seconds left in the 1st and is easily stuffed. Actually, it looks like she would've ended up on bottom out of it. In the 2nd round: nada, not even an attempt. In the 3rd, again she waits until the last 5 seconds to shoot a TD and Chook makes her eats some punches for the trouble and again Eye would've maybe ended up on bottom had the bell not rung. In the real world that fight is a Draw.
Now Vivi.
In the 1st, Talita shoots from a mile away and Vivi stuffs it easily and ends up on top. In that short sequence we see Vivi actually looking quite dangerous against the bigger girl. She looks to have a choke under the chin just as the bell rings. In the 2nd, Vivi stuffs a very good intial entry and impressively defends the chains as well. When she actually bothers to try (which is basically never, by the way), Eye just isn't relentless like this with TDs. But back to this fight, Vivi could've taken Talita's back at the end of the lengthy TD attempt sequence but she breaks away instead. Vivi is noticeably tired after the grapple and gets hit clean a few times which she shuts down with a nice reactive double herself. Vivi comes out in the 3rd looking completely fresh again and finally, as we all know, a short notice dog, she lands a great KO on Talita.
Then she fights a wily, been-there vet in Davis. While fresh Vivi lights her up in the 1st. In the 2nd, off a sweep not a TD, Davis gets on top and beats Araujo up. I will concede that Araujo is terrible off her back. But it's not that easy to get her there. In the 3rd, however, a near-gassed Vivi stuffs 2 good takedown attempts (iirc she may have stuffed another one in the 2nd as well) and then continues to batter and bloody up Davis. Araujo tires because she has an inefficient, high energy output and because Davis keeps on walking her down in zombie mode. Eye doesn't have this kind of relentless pressure. I will stop just short of saying Vivi outright gasses; she obviously tires but she also seems to have quite good recovery during the round breaks.
On the feet, Aruajo is going to beat Eye up. She's too quick, too agile, too mobile, too powerful. Ironically, this might force Eye to go for takedowns where she might not've otherwise. But how many does she attempt? Like maybe she'll try for 3 all fight, instead of her normal 1 or 2? Or none at all? And then can she get Araujo down? I'm not convinced, at all.
Have fun losing your hair with Eye, lads. You guys might be right. She might go in there and Belal her way to a dominant win. But I think you expect her to do something that she's never done before. I don't see how you can be confident in Eye doing what needs to be done. She is very, very dumb in the Octagon. And I don't think it's all that easy to both track Vivi down and take her down. I may be made to look a fool if Vivi gets grapple-fucked but at least I do know exactly what my girl is gonna go in there to do.
I'll end on the Shevchenko kill shot. That was a fucking vicious KO with Eye lying out cold for many minutes. And that was only back in June; 189 days between it and this fight on the 14th. I'd be giving it at least 365 days but OK, it's just your brain.... Maybe it forces Eye to play a safer, grapple-heavy approach. This is possible. Just like it's possible she fights scared and tentative and gets smashed by a hard hitter again.
edit:
What good is all that without talking about betting?
1.5u at -138.
-175 is a little steep now. Eye is basically a complete pass for me no matter what, outside of the bizarre/stupid.
Last edited:
- Joined
- Apr 7, 2016
- Messages
- 2,452
- Reaction score
- 28
Only 4u at +125
- Joined
- Nov 19, 2017
- Messages
- 9,851
- Reaction score
- 3,398
Thought he was really pissed when he was calling JB a goofball. This is a new level.
- Joined
- Feb 28, 2019
- Messages
- 13,564
- Reaction score
- 5,645
Applesvild been poking the bear for a while, it was only a matter of time.
Latest posts
-
Alfredo Angulo vs Jeremiah Riggs full fight, BKFC Knucklemania IV- Latest: AL-Tappo McSnappo
-
-
