UFC 249 Ferguson vs Gaethje (May 9th)

[BobbyCostanza]

Cruz looks awful.

 

[mkess101]

Dude, I love you, and while I think basing bets solely off weigh-ins is hilariously dumb, Oleynik coming in at 227.5 in great shape was very smart and encouraging, and Werdum looking flabby and flat at 243 has to be very concerning.

I mean, I don't discount it entirely but the reality is at 42 years old and especially with the RIDICULOUS mileage that he has on him, Alexei is a one round fighter now. MAYBE 7 minutes because he gets that rest between rounds and can get a little bump heading into round 2. Slimming down likely doesn't mean he now has better cardio, not at his age. And it's obviously not going to help his chin. Werdum looking like that I would agree isn't a great sign and if he was fighting someone else it would SCREAM red flag to me. But even if his cardio isn't good, it's still gonna be better than Alexei's (even slimmed down Alexei). And Werdum is just a MUCH better grappler.

All of this isn't to say Oleinik can't win, he can. But IF he does win, I literally cap it like this: KO 75%, sub 15%, decision 10%. Capping it that way, it makes no sense to me to play his ML or anything other than his KO line at current odds. I think Werdum wins anyway, but IF Alexei pulls the upset I'd be somewhat shocked if it's not by KO.

 

[SolarSeiko]

Found a nice prop
Greg Hardy fastest finish of the night $10. seems good, only really worried about Werdum.

Did you forget Cerrone is fighting ?

 

[null]

 

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[mkess101]

After some more tape:

KH/Esparza

One thing I'm somewhat sure of in this one...Waterson is getting taken down and probably multiple times. Carla's TD's may not be technically perfect (they're not bad, but she drops her head too much sometimes and loses shoulder pressure) and she's definitely not the imposing physical presence of a wrestler like Tatiana Suarez, but she is relentless and undeterred when she's trying to take her opponent down. Her striking is okay, but she leaves a ton of punches short (typical of WMMA) and doesn't sit down on them much (again, not unusual in WMMA). Waterson is the more polished striker, but also generally doesn't put much into her punches. She has nice kicks, esp to the body, but that probably isn't a good thing in this matchup. At some point it likely leads to her being taken down. On the mat, she's very capable and will attack with submissions and sweeps. On the flipside, Carla is solid with her top control but doesn't care a ton about advancing or trying to finish. This fight will likely be split fairly evenly between standing and on the mat, with Waterson looking more comfortable standing and Carla more in control on the mat. The over and FGTD are predictably juice, as they should be. Finding an angle on this one seems difficult. I give a slight edge to Esparza if it sees the cards (which it probably will) but I actually think Waterson is more likely to finish in the unlikely scenario that someone gets stopped.

The only play I could recommend here would be Waterson NSC at -110. I think it should probably be more like -150.

Edit: Have a couple more but don't have time to post them yet.

 

[ill800]

Expecting some casual money to come in any day...

 

[Card]

 

[rille31]

I mean, I don't discount it entirely but the reality is at 42 years old and especially with the RIDICULOUS mileage that he has on him.

Both guys are 42 with a lot of mileage.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Very even pants height ratios for this event. Surprisingly even pants heights for Cruz/CCC. Spann, Hardy and Ngannou all with an edge. How very LHW of Spann to have a superman tattoo on his chest looking at the ground opposite the whitest dude on the planet smiling his ass off.

 

[Sono07]

Beautiful work as always Card.

Couple thoughts on the face offs
●Cejudo looking short but I've got to think he has a speed and strength advantage
●Ngannou making the Biggi Boy look small, that dude isn't human
●Stephens probably gonna be a welterweight by fight time
●Hall v Souza think they won the face off both men looking well conditioned too
●Super Spann vs the Smiling man
Does Alvey always look that much like shit or is this his LHW special? Can't help but think Spann is going to have a strength advantage here.

 

[ill800]

Very even pants height ratios for this event. Surprisingly even pants heights for Cruz/CCC. Spann, Hardy and Ngannou all with an edge. How very LHW of Spann to have a superman tattoo on his chest looking at the ground opposite the whitest dude on the planet smiling his ass off.

Very surprised the guy who had piss bottles cause he was too depressed to get out of bed after a loss is steamed up to over -400

 

[Card]

 

[Sono07]

Very even pants height ratios for this event. Surprisingly even pants heights for Cruz/CCC. Spann, Hardy and Ngannou all with an edge. How very LHW of Spann to have a superman tattoo on his chest looking at the ground opposite the whitest dude on the planet smiling his ass off.

Gotta be honest I don't think I could look Alvey in the face either. Spann might be trying not to die of laughter.

 

[Richard Cruz]

Lol with Hall and Jacare! Matched two of the most paranoid fighters in the UFC. Give the edge to Hall both keeping 6 feet distance.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Very surprised the guy who had piss bottles cause he was too depressed to get out of bed after a loss is steamed up to over -400

Before his KO losses I would have said Spann is the exact guy Alvey is designed to beat. An aggressive dude who throws single shots who's not particularly great at anything with questionable durability.

 

[benebox]

If I was gonna play one, probably Cejudo/Cruz. You'd need to hope Tony or Justin finish the other early. But if Cruz looks like he did vs TJ and makes it a barnburner like that fight was, it could win. At +900 that's where I'd put my $.

Knowing how HW jinx's go, Nagganou / Rozen will probably end up being a boring decision and Werdum / Oneinik a war.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Holy shit Stephens definitely isn't taking weight cutting advice from Ferguson. Medium-sized Heathen going to try and wrestlefat Kattar?

He's going to knock him out cold.

 

[mkess101]

Both guys are 42 with a lot of mileage.

Both are 42 but Alexei has a lot more mileage and Werdum might not be in great shape but at his age a 2 year layoff can have benefits too.

 

[Austisthunder]

The curse of jim gunn means Waterson is a lock fyi