UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. Korean Zombie

[Captain Chesapeake]

Amazing

Lol she’s normally ready to die.

I have Pennington at -160. Can’t really be confident in wmma. Ladd could take her down for sure but I think Pennington has actually been improving. She trains with some good girls and of course she’s the husband of tecia torres

 

[Oblivian]

Mainly a favorite card for me which always makes me nervous. Hoping Dern/Torres ends ITD. Interesting style clash, but Tecia has a tendency to clinch up.

 

[mkess101]

Mainly a favorite card for me which always makes me nervous. Hoping Dern/Torres ends ITD. Interesting style clash, but Tecia has a tendency to clinch up.

Really like Dern here the more I've watched. Tecia throws a lot of kicks to try to keep distance but there isn't a ton on them. Dern should just be able rush Tecia to get ahold of her, I don't think Torres has the power to make Dern respect her. And Tecia doesn't seem to know how (or doesn't want) to disengage. Seems likely Dern gets her down at least a couple times, and it might only take one for it to be a wrap.

 

[mkess101]

I'm seeing people in the bets thread laying -770 juice on Volk. Guys...FFS c'mon. Of course he's probably gonna win, but MMA is a pretty high variance sport. And it's not like KZ doesn't have power at that weight class. What possible kind of value are you getting laying that much juice here? It makes no sense.

 

[Yotsuya]

Russian fighters 0-5 in last two cards. Average odds agains them were 2.5/+150. (I hit four of those counter bets.) I'm not great at math, but odds for that streak being a co-incidence are around 1%?

The war is still not going according to plan for the Russians and Yan strikes me as a guy who would be invested in it psychologically. He's an emotional bloke and prone to mistakes and foul play. Could be an upset one way or another. Point deductions or underperforming seem more likely than under normal circumstances.

If there's a single Russian guy in UFC who could break the current losing spell, I'd say it's Oleinik. His walk-in songs are always by Vladimir Vysotsky, who was a famous Soviet era underground folk singer very critical of authorities. He has gruelling pacifist songs about WW2 that go heavily against the grain regarding current Russian narrative. Oleinik might not mind booing and stuff, because he's most likely not emotionally invested in the war. Too bad he's been in camp so long because of cancelled fights.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Really like Dern here the more I've watched. Tecia throws a lot of kicks to try to keep distance but there isn't a ton on them. Dern should just be able rush Tecia to get ahold of her, I don't think Torres has the power to make Dern respect her. And Tecia doesn't seem to know how (or doesn't want) to disengage. Seems likely Dern gets her down at least a couple times, and it might only take one for it to be a wrap.

You left a lot of money off the table by going dern ml instead of itd in terms of odds and probabilities in reality. Her ml is not cashing unless she's attaining top time and in that case torres is getting subbed. In order for dern to win a decision she would have to be riding several minutes of top time and it's extremely unlikely a finish doesn't occur from that amount of time. Imo itd price should be barely different than ml by like 20 or 30 cents but you're going from evens to +200 or more which is hilarious.

 

[mkess101]

You left a lot of money off the table by going dern ml instead of itd in terms of odds and probabilities in reality. Her ml is not cashing unless she's attaining top time and in that case torres is getting subbed. In order for dern to win a decision she would have to be riding several minutes of top time and it's extremely unlikely a finish doesn't occur from that amount of time. Imo itd price should be barely different than ml by like 20 or 30 cents but you're going from evens to +200 or more which is hilarious.

BOL doesn't have itd unfortunately. Sub prop they have but even that's only +175 (I think was a little higher like +200 before) but knowing my luck I'd bet that and Dern would get mount and gnp until the ref stopped it and I'd lose the bet that way LOL.

I think Dern **can** win a decision although yeah kind of unlikely. But if she hangs in there on the feet due to aggression and her willingness to take one to give one and then maybe gets TD's late in the round (where there's not enough time to finish) she can win rounds that way too.

I'll just take the +101 ML and be happy if she wins I guess.

 

[sonhow]

Russian fighters 0-5 in last two cards. Average odds agains them were 2.5/+150. (I hit four of those counter bets.) I'm not great at math, but odds for that streak being a co-incidence are around 1%?

The war is still not going according to plan for the Russians and Yan strikes me as a guy who would be invested in it psychologically. He's an emotional bloke and prone to mistakes and foul play. Could be an upset one way or another. Point deductions or underperforming seem more likely than under normal circumstances.

If there's a single Russian guy in UFC who could break the current losing spell, I'd say it's Oleinik. His walk-in songs are always by Vladimir Vysotsky, who was a famous Soviet era underground folk singer very critical of authorities. He has gruelling pacifist songs about WW2 that go heavily against the grain regarding current Russian narrative. Oleinik might not mind booing and stuff, because he's most likely not emotionally invested in the war. Too bad he's been in camp so long because of cancelled fights.

Things like these tend to play factor even though it shouldnt hinder their performances individually.
,........


Tecia showed a lot of heart escaping that deep armbar by Rose back in the day when they were both beginning their careers as pros. Shes not a quitter at all. Dern can catch her with something but it needs to be about as deep as can be

 

[Yotsuya]

Things like these tend to play factor even though it shouldnt hinder their performances individually.

Could affect a lot of things like sparring partners, training atmosphere, the amount spent online, depression/anxiety/self-esteem problems, mood on fight day expecting a hostile crowd...

 

[Joonc]

Russian fighters 0-5 in last two cards. Average odds agains them were 2.5/+150. (I hit four of those counter bets.) I'm not great at math, but odds for that streak being a co-incidence are around 1%?

The war is still not going according to plan for the Russians and Yan strikes me as a guy who would be invested in it psychologically. He's an emotional bloke and prone to mistakes and foul play. Could be an upset one way or another. Point deductions or underperforming seem more likely than under normal circumstances.

If there's a single Russian guy in UFC who could break the current losing spell, I'd say it's Oleinik. His walk-in songs are always by Vladimir Vysotsky, who was a famous Soviet era underground folk singer very critical of authorities. He has gruelling pacifist songs about WW2 that go heavily against the grain regarding current Russian narrative. Oleinik might not mind booing and stuff, because he's most likely not emotionally invested in the war. Too bad he's been in camp so long because of cancelled fights.

This comment has to be trolling right? Am I missing something?

 

[mkess101]

Things like these tend to play factor even though it shouldnt hinder their performances individually.
,........


Tecia showed a lot of heart escaping that deep armbar by Rose back in the day when they were both beginning their careers as pros. Shes not a quitter at all. Dern can catch her with something but it needs to be about as deep as can be

Light years difference between Dern and any version of Rose on the mat though. Dern will make adjustments to the adjustments to tighten any sub up. Most likely trying to tough her way out of an armbar by Dern will lead to a broken arm for Tecia if it gets to that.

Really...Tecia just needs to avoid the mat like the plague or good chance she's cooked if Dern has any amount of time to work.

 

[Koondrecht]

KZ on sub - $19.. crazy value imo

 

[The Disasters]

BOL doesn't have itd unfortunately. Sub prop they have but even that's only +175 (I think was a little higher like +200 before) but knowing my luck I'd bet that and Dern would get mount and gnp until the ref stopped it and I'd lose the bet that way LOL.

I think Dern **can** win a decision although yeah kind of unlikely. But if she hangs in there on the feet due to aggression and her willingness to take one to give one and then maybe gets TD's late in the round (where there's not enough time to finish) she can win rounds that way too.

I'll just take the +101 ML and be happy if she wins I guess.

On BOL I got Dern by sub at +175 and then Dern ITD at +175. If you click on the "+7 markets" it's right underneath the Point Spread prop.

I hate laying chalk, but Dern at -400 to win ITD, with a refund if it goes to a decision, pretty much looks like a freeroll.

 

[mkess101]

On BOL I got Dern by sub at +175 and then Dern ITD at +175. If you click on the "+7 markets" it's right underneath the Point Spread prop.

I hate laying chalk, but Dern at -400 to win ITD, with a refund if it goes to a decision, pretty much looks like a freeroll.

Ahh ok. I'm still learning the site so thanks. Maybe Dern itd +175 is a bit better than her ML but I'm ok with just sticking with the +101.

 

[Yotsuya]

This comment has to be trolling right? Am I missing something?

Just making a case. I used to post this section pretty regular few years ago, but I don't bet so active these days.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

BOL doesn't have itd unfortunately. Sub prop they have but even that's only +175 (I think was a little higher like +200 before) but knowing my luck I'd bet that and Dern would get mount and gnp until the ref stopped it and I'd lose the bet that way LOL.

I think Dern **can** win a decision although yeah kind of unlikely. But if she hangs in there on the feet due to aggression and her willingness to take one to give one and then maybe gets TD's late in the round (where there's not enough time to finish) she can win rounds that way too.

I'll just take the +101 ML and be happy if she wins I guess.

They do, it’s +175 right now. Same as her sub prop.
Honestly rds 1 and 2 probably have more value. If it gets to the 3rd it’s probably going to decision

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Things like these tend to play factor even though it shouldnt hinder their performances individually.
,........


Tecia showed a lot of heart escaping that deep armbar by Rose back in the day when they were both beginning their careers as pros. Shes not a quitter at all. Dern can catch her with something but it needs to be about as deep as can be

A young roses armbar and a dern armbar are two completely different things.

 

[rille31]

Russian fighters 0-5 in last two cards. Average odds agains them were 2.5/+150. (I hit four of those counter bets.) I'm not great at math, but odds for that streak being a co-incidence are around 1%?

The war is still not going according to plan for the Russians and Yan strikes me as a guy who would be invested in it psychologically. He's an emotional bloke and prone to mistakes and foul play. Could be an upset one way or another. Point deductions or underperforming seem more likely than under normal circumstances.

If there's a single Russian guy in UFC who could break the current losing spell, I'd say it's Oleinik. His walk-in songs are always by Vladimir Vysotsky, who was a famous Soviet era underground folk singer very critical of authorities. He has gruelling pacifist songs about WW2 that go heavily against the grain regarding current Russian narrative. Oleinik might not mind booing and stuff, because he's most likely not emotionally invested in the war. Too bad he's been in camp so long because of cancelled fights.

A quick Google search shows he's pro Putin and actually banned from ever entering his birth country Ukraine. They didnt even broadcast his last fight.
I guess he's likely ethnical ruski and not ukrainian.

 

[rille31]

On BOL I got Dern by sub at +175 and then Dern ITD at +175. If you click on the "+7 markets" it's right underneath the Point Spread prop.

I hate laying chalk, but Dern at -400 to win ITD, with a refund if it goes to a decision, pretty much looks like a freeroll.

Why did you play derm by sub at +175 when itd was +175, did the lines change?

 

[Yotsuya]

A quick Google search shows he's pro Putin and actually banned from ever entering his birth country Ukraine. They didnt even broadcast his last fight.
I guess he's likely ethnical ruski and not ukrainian.

Haha, thanks for correcting me. I suppose I read too much on the Vysotsky connection. Should have read his Wiki-page instead.