UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev, Sat, Oct 22

[Kamais_Ookin]

https://forums.sherdog.com/threads/ufc-280-pbp-discussion.4260891/

 

[Stat_Collector]

Probably nitpicking a LITTLE but not a totally invalid point all. I think he stood with Davi because that's a world champion grappler who had never done much as a striker so Islam's camp figured it would be a good fight to use his stand up.

Charles is a different fight. He's obviously a legit sub threat but he's not the overall grappler that Davi is. And more importantly, Islam's camp knows full well how dangerous Charles is standing. He's made that very obvious lately.

I'd be surprised if Islam stands too long with Charles, I really would. I think he believes (rightfully so) that his top game and overall grappling will wear Charles down and even as good as Charles is off his back, he won't be able to contend with what Islam brings.

that may be but a 5 round fight is still enough to fade Islam here. this could go like usman/leon , top control to decision is not a safe strategy here, every second they stay on the feet is a risk for Islam to get rocked and lose a round or koed.

 

[Al Tair]

The biggest difference between Islam and Khabib, and Jon Jones is his questionable chin.

View attachment 949192

View attachment 949193

This was a stiff jab that caused him to fall into one knee. You may think i'm grasping at straws, but i ask you if you think Davi Ramos would have done that to Khabib?

Islam didn't even shoot until round 3, Islam to me is a less aggressive grappler than Khabib and that could be his downfall, opting to stand for two rounds with Charles like he did Ramos. I passed on both, but leaned lightly on Islam in one small parlay 33$ pick 6 fighters. That is all i played him for, low exposure, i think Charles is a dangerous fight for him, right now I rate his chin 'suspect' and that is enough to not confident bet a whole unit on him, the odds reflect the general viewpoint of the public at large. And i think the odds are off a little, Charles should be a 100+ imo.

sure

your problem is your taking the fight out of context bud.

Every fight is different and the progression in Islam's career shows his IQ is levels above. His performance against drew dober was much better, and drew dober has a similar build/hieght to Ramos.

Oliveira has had an amazing run but unfortunately Islam is going to slowly take all his hopes away on the mat, this will be a masterclass guys.

 

[Stat_Collector]

sure

your problem is your taking the fight out of context bud.

Every fight is different and the progression in Islam's career shows his IQ is levels above. His performance against drew dober was much better, and drew dober has a similar build/hieght to Ramos.

Oliveira has had an amazing run but unfortunately Islam is going to slowly take all his hopes away on the mat, this will be a masterclass guys.

chin resistance is nothing to do with style matchup.

 

[Al Tair]

chin resistance is nothing to do with style matchup.

Lots of great fighters have been flash KO'd briefly.

Sherdoggers keep bringing this up yet they don't see the rest of the fight, the guy dominates ALL of his fights. No bruises , no blood. Islam should be a heavy favorite IMO, easy money!!

 

[Stat_Collector]

Lots of great fighters have been flash KO'd briefly.

Sherdoggers keep bringing this up yet they don't see the rest of the fight, the guy dominates ALL of his fights. No bruises , no blood. Islam should be a heavy favorite IMO, easy money!!

You should never have this level of confidence on any fighter, even with my level of confidence on Abu, I acknowledge the threat of sub or flash ko. Usman/Leon is an example. If you're new to this i suggest you practice being more subjective and looking at it from all angles and possible scenarios. Everybody looks unbeaten till they aren't anymore.

 

[Young Calf Kick]

First one of my bets is in the bag.

Petrosyan to win vs Dobson
Borralho to win vs Muradov
Brady to win vs Muhammad (the sweatiest pick)
Gamrot to win vs Dariush
Makhachev to win vs Oliveira

Also got another one running with some sneaky (live) underdog picks:

O'Malley to win vs Yan
Dillashaw to win vs Sterling

 

[Al Tair]

"Sean has shown a serious lack of ability to defend leg kicks, and has had his leg buckle and give out on him to the point where he quit and was TKO'd inside 2 minutes. Those two things are not a great combo."

You lost me there bud. Accidents happen, this was a freak accident. That's like using Tom Aspinall's loss against him.
Watch the below video, munhoz was going to be finished in the first round and got away scott free because of a technicality.
The only way I see Yan winning is if he fights like Kris Moutinho,
walk sean down and absorb deadly shots in the process, I don't think Yan is that type of fighter, he is very good defensivley so I see him reacting a lot to Sean's feints, maybe Yan steals the last round I guesss. Malley 29-28 pretty confident in this.

I agree that he was well on his way to beating Munhoz. Sean has some great potential, but just like every fighter, he has his weaknesses. One of them is his ability to deal with "tough" fighters that walk through his strikes to deliver their own. The other is leg kicks/fragility of his legs. He's had two fights end because his legs gave out. Yan is tough as nails and has great leg kicks.
I do think that Sean is often underrated because of his personality + image. He has great skills, but stylistically this is a tough matchup for him.

With that being said, I see nothing wrong in putting a hail mary bet on him. He very well may put on a masterclass tomorrow. I wouldn't personally put too much on that risk myself.
If you do, good luck!

I was right boys.. 29-28 haha

 

[Al Tair]