UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3

JC615 said:
I hear what you're saying, but as much as I can't stand Barber, she blew her knee out in that fight. 15 fights, some will probably be ending quickly so I definitely lean to your lean on this one. Maybe r2 sub but my instinct says she just subs her quickly in a minute or 2 and makes a super impressive debut.
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Sub is more likely...but don't rule out her doing what she did to Walker if she gets a dominant position. Just smashing the hell out of her until the ref stops it. Miller is a nasty B (in a good way). She's looking to rearrange faces in there.
 
Captain Chesapeake said:
I like tko prop much better. And Rds 2,3 tko
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I'd say sub is more likely, but based on odds difference I think I agree with you. Sub is only slightly more likely imo, and TKO pays WAY better.
 
Gaethje +850 here, really that unlikely to hit? Fan friendly style and Fiziev will strike with him

I think Fiz is a rightful fav but hes only +240 for a decision. In a close fight if guys get wobbled, who knows...
 
UFCIsNOTRigged said:
I am sure you have looked into O'Neill/Maia and have your reasons for wanting to play Maia but imo she is very likely to lose and is the inferior fighter to O'Neill in nearly every relevant area.

O'Neill throws over 2x the volume of Maia and only absorbs back around half of the significant strikes she lands. Maia in contrast has a negative striking differential in that she absorbs more significant strikes than she lands. This is made worse by the fact Maia doesn't have knockout power so she isn't even likely to win moments with big shots.

O'Neill is the far better offensive grappler. She took down and finished her first three opponents in the UFC, one of whom (Lara Procopio) was a good grappler, and has shown the ability to do significant damage to her opponents once she grounds them. Maia in contrast has landed three takedowns in her 10 UFC fights and has only one credited submission attempt. She was taken down in relatively recent fights by Joanne Wood (Scottish kickboxer), Manon Fiorot (french kickboxer), and Chookagian (a good grappler); O'Neil has better takedowns than all of these fighters and will be able to take her down if she wants too which I anticipate she will.

I don't see how Maia wins unless O'Neill is fighting compromised.
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Maia definitely isn't inferior to O'Neil everywhere. She has better striking technique for one. O'Neil leaves herself very open to getting hit and her technique is poor.

Where are you getting the stat that O'Neil throws over 2x that of Maia? Is it just based on the stats for their last fights? I mean, it is true if you're just looking at that, but the opponents and gameplans matter there as well. Roxy is easy to land on and doesn't shy away. While Maia was almost strictly playing a counter game when she fought Moroz. She didn't want to come in as the shorter fighter and eat the constant 1-2s that Moroz is quite good at.

Maia might not have big power, but she did win that fight against Moroz by having the bigger moments with the counters.

I think you're overplaying the grappling difference a bit here too. Procopio is not really a good grappler. She's also weak, lacks athleticism, and didn't look in shape for that fight against O'Neil. O'Neil is nothing if not strong, but then, so is Maia.

Maia not landing many takedowns and not being the better offensive wrestler shouldn't really matter. She's not coming to grapple O'Neil. She is competent as a grappler though. Holding Shev down for a whole round should count for something, even if it is only that she has decent strength.

Maia wins if she can stop the takedown and land the counter right hand at the end of exchanges.

The line on this is probably too close to get me tempted. Gimme Maia closer to 3.00 and I'd be in. Too much of a chance she has some success with her hands and then O'Neil gets fed up with it and turns it into a grappling match. O'Neil's tencacity is awesome.
 
mkess101 said:
Sub is more likely...but don't rule out her doing what she did to Walker if she gets a dominant position. Just smashing the hell out of her until the ref stops it. Miller is a nasty B (in a good way). She's looking to rearrange faces in there.
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Miller also doesn't look like she's really at a UFC level, and either did Brogan. I wouldn't have given either of those girls a contract based on that TUF finale. Miller won't be going anywhere at all in the UFC and I expect she'll be cut within 5 fights or so.

Macedo has a way, way higher chance of beating Miller than Brogan did. She hits harder, cleaner, and she's just better everywhere.

There's heaps of things in Macedo's last fight that made her look absolutely terrible, but there's also reasons to disregard most of that fight too. She had no business at BW fighting a giant like Malecki. She gassed out fast because she was backpeadling the entire time and having to over-reach on every strike just to try and land head shots on Malecki.

I'd be all over Macedo if she hadn't been away for 3 years or so. Like, we just have no clue how she's going to look.

I can see Miller just being too strong and maybe pounding her out with GNP, but Macedo is crafty with her grappling. I can also see her reversing and getting back to the feet and winning the striking. Macedo sub from the bottom isn't entirely unlikely either.
 
King-Ryan said:
I do worry that the UFC wants to push Casey and that could sway the judges in her favor. Also with the time off for Casey it's hard to know what she will look like coming in.
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No need to worry about the UFC swaying the judges. This is in the UK and O'Neil is Scottish/Aussie. The crowd will be swaying the judges enough as it is. No one is going to be cheering on Maia in there.
 
mkess101 said:
I'd be really stunned if Miller loses even a round. I mean hell, it's not like I haven't been wrong before but she's just SO much more physical than anything we've seen from Macedo/Hardy in any of her previous fights. I don't know how she keeps Miller off her. She also looks to have actual grappling skills. And based on the TUF finale, cardio isn't an issue either. She was all over Brogan Walker in rd 3 of that one, dominating and with a ton of juice in the tank when she needed it to go for the finish (which she got with nasty elbows from mount). I just don't see a Barber/Modefarri scenario here at all where the hyped younger fighter is derailed by the vet.

I legit think Filho has a better shot to upset Mokaev than Hardy does of beating Miller.
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I really wouldjt say she's hyped up she's fighting a complete bum and is expected to win that's far from being hyped I haven't seen 1 person call her a future champ or anything along those lines
 
Why Amirkhany such a huge underdog? He is decent and have ways to win, also he is featherweight, when Shore going up from bantamweight.
 
mkess101 said:
I'd be really stunned if Miller loses even a round. I mean hell, it's not like I haven't been wrong before but she's just SO much more physical than anything we've seen from Macedo/Hardy in any of her previous fights. I don't know how she keeps Miller off her. She also looks to have actual grappling skills. And based on the TUF finale, cardio isn't an issue either. She was all over Brogan Walker in rd 3 of that one, dominating and with a ton of juice in the tank when she needed it to go for the finish (which she got with nasty elbows from mount). I just don't see a Barber/Modefarri scenario here at all where the hyped younger fighter is derailed by the vet.

I legit think Filho has a better shot to upset Mokaev than Hardy does of beating Miller.
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Macedo won the first round on all cards against Malecki at BW, and Malecki is stronger than Miller. And this fight is at FLW. Macedo had no business at BW against someone of Malecki's size.

Miller doesn't have grappling skills. Brogan, who she fought in the finale, is legit garbage in all areas. Any half decent girl who isn't simply under-sized would run through either Miller or Brogan in the UFC.

Macedo has grappling skills as well. She subbed Vianna and she was holding her own with Gillian on the ground for over 1.5 of that fight. She actually hit a few reversals. Gillian didn't have it all her own way at all.

Not saying Macedo will win, but I wouldn't count her out at all. She has better technique with her striking and her grappling is fine. We just don't know where Macedo is at after so much time away. Perhaps she just gets run over, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if she embarrasses Miller everywhere.

In comparison, Miller would get subbed fast by Gillian.
 
xhaydenx said:
Miller also doesn't look like she's really at a UFC level, and either did Brogan. I wouldn't have given either of those girls a contract based on that TUF finale. Miller won't be going anywhere at all in the UFC and I expect she'll be cut within 5 fights or so.

Macedo has a way, way higher chance of beating Miller than Brogan did. She hits harder, cleaner, and she's just better everywhere.

There's heaps of things in Macedo's last fight that made her look absolutely terrible, but there's also reasons to disregard most of that fight too. She had no business at BW fighting a giant like Malecki. She gassed out fast because she was backpeadling the entire time and having to over-reach on every strike just to try and land head shots on Malecki.

I'd be all over Macedo if she hadn't been away for 3 years or so. Like, we just have no clue how she's going to look.

I can see Miller just being too strong and maybe pounding her out with GNP, but Macedo is crafty with her grappling. I can also see her reversing and getting back to the feet and winning the striking. Macedo sub from the bottom isn't entirely unlikely either.
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Disagree, but we'll see I guess. Miller looked every bit the part of a legit UFC fighter imo. Strong, very heavy on top. A couple technical mistakes but she is still a bit inexperienced so the improvements are likely to be major with her from fight to fight right now. Nasty gnp, which extremely few in WMMA have.

Macedo isn't the worst I've seen in the UFC, but she would have to show something we've never seen from her in terms of her grappling to not get smashed here imo. And she's shown she will look for a way out before.

No such thing as a lock so maybe I'm wrong. But I think Miller rolls easily and I also think it's extremely unlikely she's cut in 5 fights. Any improvements at all will have her way ahead of most of the division in terms of grappling.

I also don't know if Bea is stronger. She's a bit bigger sure. Haven't seen her look as heavy on top at all as Miller.

And you're trashing Walker too...she was also gonna be like -400 vs Na coming up next week (looks like maybe that fight is off and she has a different opponent?) Na is bad and gonna be cut probably, sure. But it's not like Walker was gonna be -150 vs her. She was gonna be a 4-1 favorite. Saying she's trash and not UFC level makes no sense.
 
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xhaydenx said:
I can see Miller just being too strong and maybe pounding her out with GNP
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xhaydenx said:
Miller doesn't have grappling skills. Brogan, who she fought in the finale, is legit garbage in all areas. Any half decent girl who isn't simply under-sized would run through either Miller or Brogan in the UFC.
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Seems contradicting to me.

I disagree with her not having grappling. Juliana Miller trains with 10P SD and Oceanside, has a few sub wins, avenged her only loss with grappling, and competed in grappling a bunch.
She actually has a grappling win vs an MMA and female grappling pioneer Tara Larosa

She's also heavily chalked so I won't tell anyone to bet on her and won't talk anyone out of betting Hardy.
 
guesswhoseback said:
I really wouldjt say she's hyped up she's fighting a complete bum and is expected to win that's far from being hyped I haven't seen 1 person call her a future champ or anything along those lines
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I don't know about future champ but future contender possibly, with some expected improvements at the stage she's at. Maybe "hyped" is a bit much though, ok.
 
xhaydenx said:
Macedo won the first round on all cards against Malecki at BW, and Malecki is stronger than Miller. And this fight is at FLW. Macedo had no business at BW against someone of Malecki's size.

Miller doesn't have grappling skills. Brogan, who she fought in the finale, is legit garbage in all areas. Any half decent girl who isn't simply under-sized would run through either Miller or Brogan in the UFC.

Macedo has grappling skills as well. She subbed Vianna and she was holding her own with Gillian on the ground for over 1.5 of that fight. She actually hit a few reversals. Gillian didn't have it all her own way at all.

Not saying Macedo will win, but I wouldn't count her out at all. She has better technique with her striking and her grappling is fine. We just don't know where Macedo is at after so much time away. Perhaps she just gets run over, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if she embarrasses Miller everywhere.

In comparison, Miller would get subbed fast by Gillian.
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Again, disagree about Miller not having grappling skills. She's not MacKenzie Dern obviously, but she is heavy on top and is very strong. And actually knows how to do damage there, unlike most in WMMA.

We'll find out in a bit for this matchup.
 
mkess101 said:
Disagree, but we'll see I guess. Miller looked every bit the part of a legit UFC fighter imo. Strong, very heavy on top. A couple technical mistakes but she is still a bit inexperienced so the improvements are likely to be major with her from fight to fight right now. Nasty gnp, which extremely few in WMMA have.
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She looked average against a can in that TUF final. Brogan is awful. It's easier to look okay against comp like that.

mkess101 said:
Macedo isn't the worst I've seen in the UFC, but she would have to show something we've never seen from her in terms of her grappling to not get smashed here imo. And she's shown she will look for a way out before.
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What would you need to see from her in terms of grappling? Against Gillian she showed that she could stop td attempts and turn them into ones of her own, escape bad positions, defend some subs, and hit sweeps. Gillian had her mounted and she swept her. Gillian had her back and she swept her. Gillian had an arm triangle on and she swept. Each time she landed on top.

She got caught eventually, but there's no shame in getting subbed by Gillian.

And Miller is absolutely nowhere near Gillian's skill level on the ground.

You can also look at Miller grappling Tara Larosa in 2021. Tara isn't great and she dominated Miller for the whole first round. Miller only won because of the dumb SUG rules where they restart the fight in different positions.

And La Rosa is almost 20 years older than Miller lol.

Macedo doesn't look for a way out either. She's gritty as fuck. Fought the Gillian choke until the end. Against Malecki, a huge BW, she was gassed as shit for several glaring reasons and still throwing with whatever she had left until the very end. That's not someone who looks for a way out.

mkess101 said:
No such thing as a lock so maybe I'm wrong. But I think Miller rolls easily and I also think it's extremely unlikely she's cut in 5 fights. Any improvements at all will have her way ahead of most of the division in terms of grappling.
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You probably are right that Miller rolls her though. We have no idea where Macedo is at. She hasn't been fighting. Size and strength has always been a problem for her as well.

Miller isn't anywhere near being ahead of most of the div in grappling. She's ranked like 35 and all of the top 25 or so who aren't pure strikers would outgrapple her easily. We're talking girls like Cortez, Gatto, Ribas, Murphy, Vivi, Karine, Gillian, Moroz, Montana, etc.

And that's not even including the top of the heap like Erin, Santos, and Suarez.
 
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