UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3

xhaydenx said:
She looked average against a can in that TUF final. Brogan is awful. It's easier to look okay against comp like that.



What would you need to see from her in terms of grappling? Against Gillian she showed that she could stop td attempts and turn them into ones of her own, escape bad positions, defend some subs, and hit sweeps. Gillian had her mounted and she swept her. Gillian had her back and she swept her. Gillian had an arm triangle on and she swept. Each time she landed on top.

She got caught eventually, but there's no shame in getting subbed by Gillian.

And Miller is absolutely nowhere near Gillian's skill level on the ground.

You can also look at Miller grappling Tara Larosa in 2021. Tara isn't great and she dominated Miller for the whole first round. Miller only won because of the dumb SUG rules where they restart the fight in different positions.

And La Rosa is almost 20 years older than Miller lol.

Macedo doesn't look for a way out either. She's gritty as fuck. Fought the Gillian choke until the end. Against Malecki, a huge BW, she was gassed as shit for several glaring reasons and still throwing with whatever she had left until the very end. That's not someone who looks for a way out.



You probably are right that Miller rolls her though. We have no idea where Macedo is at. She hasn't been fighting. Size and strength has always been a problem for her as well.

Miller isn't anywhere near being ahead of most of the div in grappling. She's ranked like 35 and all of the top 25 or so who aren't pure strikers would outgrapple her easily. We're talking girls like Cortez, Gatto, Ribas, Murphy, Vivi, Karine, Gillian, Moroz, Montana, etc.

And that's not even including the top of the heap like Erin, Santos, and Suarez.
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Gillian is a far better submission fighter obviously but she's ALWAYS looking to advance and find a sub. It leads to her losing position vs inferior grapplers at times. Miller is heavier on top, and can actually throw gnp. And is physically much stronger. Which matters a TON in WMMA.

Miller isn't ahead of a lot of the division in grappling yet, I'm assuming we'll see pretty big improvements given her relative inexperience. She has a great starting point though. Physically strong AF for the division, good top control, and the willingness and ability to damage with it.
 
supnavarili said:
Please let's talk about Marwan Amirhani instead of some can women.
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bro this is the most straight forward fight of the card, he either wins in first round or doesn't that's why no one's talking about it. play makwan round 1 sub at like +1800 and then live bet shore angle or round 3/dec combo or late round props. done.
 
supnavarili said:
Can he win?
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Sure. The matchup isn't good at all though. Shore will be patient for a bit I'd imagine and pick Makhwan apart to tire him. If Jack gets over aggressive early, the sub possibility for Makhwan is there for sure.
 
Tebowned said:
Seems contradicting to me.

I disagree with her not having grappling. Juliana Miller trains with 10P SD and Oceanside, has a few sub wins, avenged her only loss with grappling, and competed in grappling a bunch.
She actually has a grappling win vs an MMA and female grappling pioneer Tara Larosa

She's also heavily chalked so I won't tell anyone to bet on her and won't talk anyone out of betting Hardy.
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You can be simply too strong for someone despite being a worse grappler technically.

Gillian is a perfect example of this. She's a more skilled grappler than a lot of girls, but she doesn't have the size, strength, or athleticism to actually make the most of those skills sometimes when she's up against an opponent who meets the bare minimum of skill level but has a lot of strength.

Miller has a few sub wins, sure, but they're against a girl who is 2-2 who only has wins over a 5-7 and a 0-1. Miller's other sub came against a girl who was 0-4 at the time and had lost by sub 3 times already. These are hardly impressive subs. They're the sort of cans you had want to be finishing.

Good on her avenging the loss to Guthrie, but that was a scheduled for 2 round fight on TUF. It's not the same as a normal fight and she lost when they fought like that. Guthrie isn't good and she was outgrappling Miller easily until she slowed down.

And did you see her match against Tara? She got dominated for the whole first 5 mins. She couldn't get Tara off her at all and was able to do nothing. She won a decision based on those silly SUG rules where they start you in dominant positions and subs lol. She won via escape time. When it came to the proper grappling part of it where she had to actually earn positions, she was completely outclassed.

She's also 19 years younger than 45 year old Tara.

I'm still leaning towards Miller just being too strong and violent for Veronica. Miller is awesome to watch. She gets battered and doesn't get deterred at all and never really quits. That aggression and size and strength is going to give Veronica all sorts of issues.
 
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Kamais_Ookin said:
bro this is the most straight forward fight of the card, he either wins in first round or doesn't that's why no one's talking about it. play makwan round 1 sub at like +1800 and then live bet shore angle or round 3/dec combo or late round props. done.
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lol Makwan R1 SUB is all I ever do when he fights.

It's usually wrong but it feels so right.
 
xhaydenx said:
You can be simply too strong for someone despite being a worse grappler technically.

Gillian is a perfect example of this. She's a more skilled grappler than a lot of girls, but she doesn't have the size, strength, or athleticism to actually make the most of those skills sometimes when she's up against an opponent who meets the bare minimum of skill level but has a lot of strength.

Miller has a few sub wins, sure, but they're against a girl who is 2-2 who only has wins over a 5-7 and a 0-1. Miller's other sub came against a girl who was 0-4 at the time and had lost by sub 3 times already. These are hardly impressive subs. They're the sort of cans you had want to be finishing.

Good on her avenging the loss to Guthrie, but that was a scheduled for 2 round fight on TUF. It's not the same as a normal fight and she lost when they fought like that. Guthrie isn't good and she was outgrappling Miller easily until she slowed down.

And did you see her match against Tara? She got dominated for the whole first 5 mins. She couldn't get Tara off her at all and was able to do nothing. She won a decision based on those silly SUG rules where they start you in dominant positions and subs lol. She won via escape time. When it came to the proper grappling part of it where she had to actually earn positions, she was completely outclassed.

She's also 19 years younger than 45 year old Tara.

I'm still leaning towards Miller just being too strong and violent for Veronica. Miller is awesome to watch. She gets battered and doesn't get deterred at all and never really quits. That aggression and size and strength is going to give Veronica all sorts of issues.
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That last part is true in WMMA until you get to like the top 10, that's what I'm saying haha.

Miller will beat a lot of girls because of raw physicality, violence, and some decent grappling.

No, she's not gonna hang with Blanchfield on the mat. Of course not. But what she brings will be good enough to beat up plenty on the roster imo.
 
xhaydenx said:
Maia definitely isn't inferior to O'Neil everywhere. She has better striking technique for one. O'Neil leaves herself very open to getting hit and her technique is poor.

Where are you getting the stat that O'Neil throws over 2x that of Maia? Is it just based on the stats for their last fights? I mean, it is true if you're just looking at that, but the opponents and gameplans matter there as well. Roxy is easy to land on and doesn't shy away. While Maia was almost strictly playing a counter game when she fought Moroz. She didn't want to come in as the shorter fighter and eat the constant 1-2s that Moroz is quite good at.

Maia might not have big power, but she did win that fight against Moroz by having the bigger moments with the counters.

I think you're overplaying the grappling difference a bit here too. Procopio is not really a good grappler. She's also weak, lacks athleticism, and didn't look in shape for that fight against O'Neil. O'Neil is nothing if not strong, but then, so is Maia.

Maia not landing many takedowns and not being the better offensive wrestler shouldn't really matter. She's not coming to grapple O'Neil. She is competent as a grappler though. Holding Shev down for a whole round should count for something, even if it is only that she has decent strength.

Maia wins if she can stop the takedown and land the counter right hand at the end of exchanges.

The line on this is probably too close to get me tempted. Gimme Maia closer to 3.00 and I'd be in. Too much of a chance she has some success with her hands and then O'Neil gets fed up with it and turns it into a grappling match. O'Neil's tencacity is awesome.
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Maia has a SLPM of 3.98 while O'Neill has a SLPM of 8.65 and thats over their respective UFC careers. I agree Maia has better striking technique but her volume is going to be too low to win rounds imo since she isn't likely to have big moments given her lack of punching power. Its hard to win rounds if your opponent is doubling you up on strikes.

I do think O'Neill will want the fight on the ground like you said and she should be able to get it there from what I saw. Maia didn't look overly strong to me and has been somewhat easily controlled once grounded as of recent. Chookagian held her down for half a round with little resistance for what its worth.

I feel pretty confident about this one but its possible I could be overvaluing O'Neills prowess against lower level opponents.
 
xhaydenx said:
lol Makwan R1 SUB is all I ever do when he fights.

It's usually wrong but it feels so right.
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Agreed. I felt like that before his fight against Grundy so I had Grundy and low and behold. . .
 
I like Shore/Amir ITD. I think that's pretty generously priced. It looks like Shore goes to decision a lot, but it's against other grapplers who neutralize. Amir is there to entertain. He doesn't manage his energy well and he goes for it. He may catch Shore with something, but otherwise, I don't think he'll play it safe. Shore can definitely snag his neck or wear him out with ground and pound.
 
Oblivian said:
I like Shore/Amir ITD. I think that's pretty generously priced. It looks like Shore goes to decision a lot, but it's against other grapplers who neutralize. Amir is there to entertain. He doesn't manage his energy well and he goes for it. He may catch Shore with something, but otherwise, I don't think he'll play it safe. Shore can definitely snag his neck or wear him out with ground and pound.
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Normally I'd never even consider this, but this **might** be one of those rare fights that's likely enough to end somewhere in the 2nd half of the fight to make a play like:

$200 on FDNGD at -200
$150 on o1.5 at -150

So if the fight hits the cards, you lose $100
If the fight ends within 1.5 rounds, you lose $50
If the fight ends anywhere after 1.5 rounds but doesn't hit the cards, you win $200.

Maybe it's overthinking it a little, but I think it's really likely that Makhwan goes all out rd 1 and is gassed by rd 2, hangs on for a bit and gets finished late rd 2 or early in rd 3.
 
supnavarili said:
Please let's talk about Marwan Amirhani instead of some can women.
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Have you even watched recent Makwan fights? I agree that the line is a bit whack but Makwan has one decent round in him then he gives up and quits. Getting in there in age too and Shore is a decent prospect. Makwan is sub or bust.
 
xhaydenx said:
She looked average against a can in that TUF final. Brogan is awful. It's easier to look okay against comp like that.


Macedo doesn't look for a way out either. She's gritty as fuck. Fought the Gillian choke until the end. Against Malecki, a huge BW, she was gassed as shit for several glaring reasons and still throwing with whatever she had left until the very end. That's not someone who looks for a way out.

You probably are right that Miller rolls her though. We have no idea where Macedo is at. She hasn't been fighting. Size and strength has always been a problem for her as well.

Miller isn't anywhere near being ahead of most of the div in grappling. She's ranked like 35 and all of the top 25 or so who aren't pure strikers would outgrapple her easily. We're talking girls like Cortez, Gatto, Ribas, Murphy, Vivi, Karine, Gillian, Moroz, Montana, etc.

And that's not even including the top of the heap like Erin, Santos, and Suarez.
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Brogan is a more well rounded and accomplished fighter than Macedo.

Macedo was looking for a way out after punching herself out against Malecki she is not gritty.
 
Bet Amirkhani before the fight.
Wait.
Live-Bet Shore during R1.
Profit?
 
Broe. said:
Bet shore before the fight rd 2 and 3. Guaranteed profit
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Unlikely. Shore isn’t a finisher. Amirkhani will gas but I wouldn’t bet on it, and like the over a lot more.
 
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