UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2, October 21, Abu Dhabi

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UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2
Abu Dhabi, same arena as the first fight
Saturday 10.21.2023 at 10:30 AM eastern

https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/99416-ufc-294

https://fightodds.io/odds/4655/ufc-294-makhachev-vs-oliveira-2

https://twitter.com/search?q=#UFC294&src=typed_query&f=live

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_294

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Cannot believe Costa is such a large underdog
 
Russ82 said:
Cannot believe Costa is such a large underdog
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Really? Why? Khamzat has taken everyone down easily, and Costa offers nothing off his back. Costa also was in an all out war with the ghost of Luke Rockhold his last time out. If you're thinking Costa can stop Khamzat's grappling just because of size...don't think that's happening.

I won't play Khamzat ML because -3xx doesn't hold much appeal to me but I get why the line is where it is. Khamzat sub or itd could be a possibility but my guess is that odds still won't be all that good.
 
mkess101 said:
Really? Why? Khamzat has taken everyone down easily, and Costa offers nothing off his back. Costa also was in an all out war with the ghost of Luke Rockhold his last time out. If you're thinking Costa can stop Khamzat's grappling just because of size...don't think that's happening.

I won't play Khamzat ML because -3xx doesn't hold much appeal to me but I get why the line is where it is. Khamzat sub or itd could be a possibility but my guess is that odds still won't be all that good.
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Size, experience, kicks, genetics
 
mkess101 said:
Really? Why? Khamzat has taken everyone down easily, and Costa offers nothing off his back. Costa also was in an all out war with the ghost of Luke Rockhold his last time out. If you're thinking Costa can stop Khamzat's grappling just because of size...don't think that's happening.

I won't play Khamzat ML because -3xx doesn't hold much appeal to me but I get why the line is where it is. Khamzat sub or itd could be a possibility but my guess is that odds still won't be all that good.
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I wouldn’t necessarily call that an all out war. It was a decisive win for Costa.
 
At these odds it's dog or pass. The line is probably right, I think Khamzat runs through Costa, but to many unknowns to lay this much chalk on Khamzat.
 
StewDogg11 said:
I wouldn’t necessarily call that an all out war. It was a decisive win for Costa.
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He clearly won, but was getting clipped by an utterly gassed Rockhold even still. And couldn't finish despite Luke looking like a winded old man after 5 minutes. "All out war" maybe isn't accurate, but that was hardly a showing by Costa that would give me any confidence he has something for guy like Khamzat at this point.
 
Jasper_RB81 said:
At these odds it's dog or pass. The line is probably right, I think Khamzat runs through Costa, but to many unknowns to lay this much chalk on Khamzat.
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Khamzat rd 1 at evens I'd consider. Agree on the juice on that ML. I think more often than not if Khamzat wins it's just what you said, he runs through Costa easy and smashes him within a few minutes.
 
I have Khamzat by decision..

I think Costa is durable enough to survive, and a decent bjj guy to avoid the sub.
 
Stat_Collector said:
I have Khamzat by decision..

I think Costa is durable enough to survive, and a decent bjj guy to avoid the sub.
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The problem is imo that Costa doesn't offer anything offensively off his back. And Khamzat primarily looks to smash first and just takes the sub when guys wilt under his gnp onslaught.

Burns is an elite guard player and bjj world champ, so Khamzat had to take more caution than normal the times he got top position. Costa isn't a scrub grappler, I agree-but off his back he's just a guy that tries to survive and not get subbed. Against someone like Rockhold that's okay, Luke is a great grappler but he's looking to advance position and secure a sub. Khamzat is looking first to savagely beat people's faces through the mat, and when they start to wilt and gift-wrap a sub that's when he takes it.

He also may well have better cardio and be stronger with not trying to cut to 170 anymore.
 
mkess101 said:
The problem is imo that Costa doesn't offer anything offensively off his back. And Khamzat primarily looks to smash first and just takes the sub when guys wilt under his gnp onslaught.

Burns is an elite guard player and bjj world champ, so Khamzat had to take more caution than normal the times he got top position. Costa isn't a scrub grappler, I agree-but off his back he's just a guy that tries to survive and not get subbed. Against someone like Rockhold that's okay, Luke is a great grappler but he's looking to advance position and secure a sub. Khamzat is looking first to savagely beat people's faces through the mat, and when they start to wilt and gift-wrap a sub that's when he takes it.

He also may well have better cardio and be stronger with not trying to cut to 170 anymore.
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He had John Phillips down for near 5 mins and could not tko him that rnd. I cant see him gnp Costa who is bigger than Burns and gets up pretty well. Plus Khamzat strikes me as a guy who eventually gives up grappling once he realizes it's too much trouble. I see him scoring some takedowns, sitting in full guard, and then losing top ctrl. Or he does the occasional wall and stall .

Given its Abu Dhabi , he might try and fight for the crowd. Historically Khamzat stands against a certain level of grapplers.
 
Stat_Collector said:
He had John Phillips down for near 5 mins and could not tko him that rnd. I cant see him gnp Costa who is bigger than Burns and gets up pretty well. Plus Khamzat strikes me as a guy who eventually gives up grappling once he realizes it's too much trouble. I see him scoring some takedowns, sitting in full guard, and then losing top ctrl. Or he does the occasional wall and stall .

Given its Abu Dhabi , he might try and fight for the crowd. Historically Khamzat stands against a certain level of grapplers.
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I mean...to be fair he beat the absolute dogshit out of Phillips. Phillips isn't any good, but he showed insane toughness there. Maybe Costa has that in him...maybe.

Costa definitely bigger and I'd imagine stronger than Gilbert, fair point. But he's just not the same threat off his back.

I can't remember all of Khamzat's fights. He stood vs Burns a lot of course (bjj world champ) and he KO'd Meerchart standing with one punch in about 30 seconds. Did he choose to stand vs other guys? Maybe pre UFC?

Maybe it's unfair, but I see Costa as a bit of a frontrunner/glass cannon. Izzy landed clean but it wasn't some massive shot and Costa just crumbled. Then again, as I type this I'm remembering Costa/Romero where I think Paulo acquitted himself well in terms of toughness and durability so I think I am being a little unfair to him.

Still, all that said I just don't think he will have an answer for the grappling combined with the gnp. ML is unplayable, I'll check props and see what shakes out.
 
If Khamzat's career trajectory was on track I'd pick him to finish Costa with certain ease. But the guy is making such weird choices in his life I just don't know. Might just take a stab of Costa.
I mean where has this guy been? Why did he miss weight so badly against Nate Diaz? Why is he moving to Dubai? Is he training with bunch of sheik yes men? Doesn't he want to get pushed anymore?
 
mkess101 said:
I mean...to be fair he beat the absolute dogshit out of Phillips. Phillips isn't any good, but he showed insane toughness there. Maybe Costa has that in him...maybe.

Costa definitely bigger and I'd imagine stronger than Gilbert, fair point. But he's just not the same threat off his back.

I can't remember all of Khamzat's fights. He stood vs Burns a lot of course (bjj world champ) and he KO'd Meerchart standing with one punch in about 30 seconds. Did he choose to stand vs other guys? Maybe pre UFC?

Maybe it's unfair, but I see Costa as a bit of a frontrunner/glass cannon. Izzy landed clean but it wasn't some massive shot and Costa just crumbled. Then again, as I type this I'm remembering Costa/Romero where I think Paulo acquitted himself well in terms of toughness and durability so I think I am being a little unfair to him.

Still, all that said I just don't think he will have an answer for the grappling combined with the gnp. ML is unplayable, I'll check props and see what shakes out.
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Ikram

Its not totally impossible for Khamzat to ko Costa. But i'm guessing the books will make those lines juice and low value. We might get a 400+ decision for khamzat . even fgtd could be decent odds.
 
Stat_Collector said:
Ikram

Its not totally impossible for Khamzat to ko Costa. But i'm guessing the books will make those lines juice and low value. We might get a 400+ decision for khamzat . even fgtd could be decent odds.
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Ikram was only like a minute or so quick KO though right? Not as fast as the Meerchart one but pretty quick.

I do agree the stoppage props probably will be too juiced too.
 
mkess101 said:
Ikram was only like a minute or so quick KO though right? Not as fast as the Meerchart one but pretty quick.

I do agree the stoppage props probably will be too juiced too.
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if i were to play ko , id hit the ko in rnds 2-3 range, Costa has a questionable gas tank.
 
Makhachev defeats Oliveira via submission (toehold)

Khamzat defeats Costa via KO (punch)

Aliskerov defeats Imavov via DEC (split) 29-28, 28-29, 29-28
 
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