UFC 295: Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira, November 11

[BigSteve]

why does it have to be the ufc?

Alday fight , near all of his losses are decision losses. He was winning against Santos until he wasn’t and slowed down badly.

The majority of his wins are finishes. He comes off strong in the first two rounds and then you see a drop in activity.

This looks like a live bet fight.

I’m not that interested in it to be honest.

It dosent. He has a bunch of round 3 finishes on regionals and a round 4. Historically it's his best round. Against Santos he had bronchitis, common knowledge.Never slown like that before. Cast is a meat and potato dude whose best attributes are cardio and durabilty

 

[BigDramaShow26]

Doesn't Ricci do everything better than Godinez? I like what I see in Ricci. I think she has top 5 ability, possibly even champ ability. I'm surprised she is the one I see at +130.

Godinez striking is nothing special. It may be slightly better than Ricci in the pocket thats it. I just like Ricci's athleticism here, and Ricci will be the better grappler. The way Ricci was able to shut down Robertson impressed me. I see Ricci frustrating Godinez here with her movement, and spamming a takedown or 2 en route to a decision.

 

[guidi]

I like Ricci as the dog here as well, it wasn't too long ago Angela hill was able to sprawl and piece up Godinez on the feet. Loopy has also had some pretty favorable matchups as of late and this just seems like a bad matchup for her.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Doesn't Ricci do everything better than Godinez? I like what I see in Ricci. I think she has top 5 ability, possibly even champ ability. I'm surprised she is the one I see at +130.

Godinez striking is nothing special. It may be slightly better than Ricci in the pocket thats it. I just like Ricci's athleticism here, and Ricci will be the better grappler. The way Ricci was able to shut down Robertson impressed me. I see Ricci frustrating Godinez here with her movement, and spamming a takedown or 2 en route to a decision.

I have not taped the fight yet so cant speak to this specific matchup but in June when Ricci fought Gillian Robertson there was a sizable contingent online swearing up and down that Robertson was definitely going to win and many of them argued she was better everywhere. I don't know how any of them came to that conclusion since it was pretty clear on film that Ricci was a meaningfully better and more comfortable striker, better wrestler, and at best Robertson had a small submission grappling advantage.

In reality I think a lot of the folks who bet Robertson down to a pick-em in that fight where she should have been a sizable underdog had enjoyed her on Rogan and let that influence how they capped the fight; in almost every case probably unknowingly. In these types of fights you have to drown out the white noise, go off what you see on film, and nothing else.

 

[Stat_Collector]

It dosent. He has a bunch of round 3 finishes on regionals and a round 4. Historically it's his best round. Against Santos he had bronchitis, common knowledge.Never slown like that before. Cast is a meat and potato dude whose best attributes are cardio and durabilty

but that has to do with the skill level. In his stats, he fights low volume, even his last fight he got out struck. His power and kd in rnd 1, with ctrl time in rnd 3 got him the w.

It's also very telling that he becomes a grappler in rnd 3 with heavier emphasis in cage stalling and wrestling.



I know his regional fights are a few years old but stamina is not something that gets better with age, it diminishes, unless he was out of shape before, which he wasn't and he was younger here.

Kang hasn't been finished since 2011. That alone makes Casteneda a bad favorite here. Kang has gone to split a lot , all his fights tend to be competitive, even against a guy like Ricardo Ramos.

I'm not making an argument for Kang , just that this fight is closer than I'm comfortable for that price.

 

[BigSteve]

but that has to do with the skill level. In his stats, he fights low volume, even his last fight he got out struck. His power and kd in rnd 1, with ctrl time in rnd 3 got him the w.

It's also very telling that he becomes a grappler in rnd 3 with heavier emphasis in cage stalling and wrestling.



I know his regional fights are a few years old but stamina is not something that gets better with age, it diminishes, unless he was out of shape before, which he wasn't and he was younger here.

Kang hasn't been finished since 2011. That alone makes Casteneda a bad favorite here. Kang has gone to split a lot , all his fights tend to be competitive, even against a guy like Ricardo Ramos.

I'm not making an argument for Kang , just that this fight is closer than I'm comfortable for that price.

he did have discipline issues and cardio when young. Didnt make weight for his contender series fight and was kicked out of gyms.

 

[sonhow]

I liked what Ive seen from Loopy recently. I know I called her inconsitent last time lol an now am making a complete 180 but championship is the ceiling for her...as long as she puts it all together. She is too strong for Ricci to outgrapple and I see a striking advantage. Ricci is athletic and pretty good everywhere but I dont see the same speciality in her game as I see in Loopy.
Might be way off here but whatever. I just cant ignore the gut feeling in this one.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

People really like Pav over Aspinall? There's gonna be a pretty big variance level just due to Sergei's ultra aggressive style and power. Early KO always live with him.

I like Aspinall's speed, footwork, and overall skillset here though. Especially because he's got real HW power too. He won't have to fight perfect trying to outpoint Pavlovich. If Tom lands (and I think he has a better chance of landing first) he will hurt Sergei.

I have been very impressed with Aspinall, i think he is probably the best heavy weight on the roster at the moment. I would pick him against anyone in the division at the moment (Jones included). He is fast, has really crisp technique on the feet and he can grapple. He also seems to have good fight IQ.
I mean Pav can probably KO an elephant and is ridiculously fast for his size so if he KOs Tom in 30 seconds I'm not gonna be surprised.

I also feel that Pav has had pretty similar matchups which hasn't really exposed him... could be that there isn't anything to expose, but Pav has had a total of 2 takedown attempts against him since his loss to Overeem. One from Shamil and one from a wobbly Blaydes. For being the scariest puncher in the division this is very low numbers over 6 fights. You would think that it would be everyones game plan to take him down, but given the matchups this has not happened.

I have 1U on Tom @-110

 

[Jasper_RB81]

Looks like Mateusz Rebecki will fight Roosevelt Roberts instead.
Should be a bit of a walk in the park for Rebecki i suspect.

 

[Thesnake101]

Looks like Mateusz Rebecki will fight Roosevelt Roberts instead.
Should be a bit of a walk in the park for Rebecki i suspect.

Sub prop could be live. Reckon he'll look for takedowns ASAP and build from there

 

[BigDramaShow26]

I have not taped the fight yet so cant speak to this specific matchup but in June when Ricci fought Gillian Robertson there was a sizable contingent online swearing up and down that Robertson was definitely going to win and many of them argued she was better everywhere. I don't know how any of them came to that conclusion since it was pretty clear on film that Ricci was a meaningfully better and more comfortable striker, better wrestler, and at best Robertson had a small submission grappling advantage.

In reality I think a lot of the folks who bet Robertson down to a pick-em in that fight where she should have been a sizable underdog had enjoyed her on Rogan and let that influence how they capped the fight; in almost every case probably unknowingly. In these types of fights you have to drown out the white noise, go off what you see on film, and nothing else.

I was one of those people lol. Robertson is a good offensive grappler and Ricci just shut her down. Godinez has won fights on her little run with takedowns and decent boxing vs a willing opponent. I dont think Ricci will be so willing. I think she will dart in and out with her superior athleticism, and Godonez will not take her down. The line is moving opposite what I think to which is interesting.

 

[Guld]

I'm leaning towards Tom and Jiri.
My reasoning is that they have more potential tools in their arsenal via grappling.
Tom looks very slick on the ground, and isn't afraid to grapple.
Jiri (for some reason) made a point of showing that he can hold his own with Glover on the ground for 5 rounds, and even submitted him by the end. I see no reason he can't do something similar to Pereira.

Everyone involved in those two matches has fight ending 1 hit power though, so it might just come down to who's chin gets cracked first.

 

[BigSteve]

Solid step up for Ricci, at best I see her winning a dodgy 29-28 split where Loopi fights the worst gameplan and has 2 out of 3 close rounds on the feet.

 

[benebox]

I liked what Ive seen from Loopy recently. I know I called her inconsitent last time lol an now am making a complete 180 but championship is the ceiling for her...as long as she puts it all together. She is too strong for Ricci to outgrapple and I see a striking advantage. Ricci is athletic and pretty good everywhere but I dont see the same speciality in her game as I see in Loopy.
Might be way off here but whatever. I just cant ignore the gut feeling in this one.

Agree, debating wether to wait for decision odds to come out though.

 

[Kenny95]

I'm leaning towards Tom and Jiri.
My reasoning is that they have more potential tools in their arsenal via grappling.
Tom looks very slick on the ground, and isn't afraid to grapple.
Jiri (for some reason) made a point of showing that he can hold his own with Glover on the ground for 5 rounds, and even submitted him by the end. I see no reason he can't do something similar to Pereira.

Everyone involved in those two matches has fight ending 1 hit power though, so it might just come down to who's chin gets cracked first.

ha? Jiri held his own grappling with glover? I remember him getting his face smashed up across multiple rounds on the bottom and then landing a RNC with no hooks in when glover was beyond exhaustion, when a loss via UD was looming. Where did that come from?

 

[Stat_Collector]

People really like Pav over Aspinall? There's gonna be a pretty big variance level just due to Sergei's ultra aggressive style and power. Early KO always live with him.

I like Aspinall's speed, footwork, and overall skillset here though. Especially because he's got real HW power too. He won't have to fight perfect trying to outpoint Pavlovich. If Tom lands (and I think he has a better chance of landing first) he will hurt Sergei.

I faded both. Rewatch Tom vs Arlovski. If Arlovski can tag Tom like that, Sergei can too, and he's not someone you wanna get tagged that much like he did Arlovski. I might be playing too safe, but that fight has chaos written on it.

 

[mkess101]

I faded both. Rewatch Tom vs Arlovski. If Arlovski can tag Tom like that, Sergei can too, and he's not someone you wanna get tagged that much like he did Arlovski. I might be playing too safe, but that fight has chaos written on it.

I'll rewatch. Need to see the type of punches he got hit with. Pavlovich throws a lot of wide, looping hooks.

 

[burge13]

Asp can surely secure a TD here? Pav's weakness has barely been threatened since the Reem fight as someone else suggested. Asp should be able to ground him? Path of least resistance?

 

[Stat_Collector]

I'll rewatch. Need to see the type of punches he got hit with. Pavlovich throws a lot of wide, looping hooks.

My problem is more to do with Tom not getting out of the way on time. Sergei is heavier sure and his punches are less lateral , but his reaction time didn't look sharp there.

It looks like a test fight for both of them. I can see Aspinall finish in the 3rd -4th or Sergei 1-2 . Could be a lot of hesitance there from both fighters and a split decision scenario.

 

[mkess101]

My problem is more to do with Tom not getting out of the way on time. Sergei is heavier sure and his punches are less lateral , but his reaction time didn't look sharp there.

It looks like a test fight for both of them. I can see Aspinall finish in the 3rd -4th or Sergei 1-2 . Could be a lot of hesitance there from both fighters and a split decision scenario.

I think sometimes there's also a tendency for guys to be a bit sloppier than normal if they don't feel as threatened by an opponent's power. At HW less so I guess, but sometimes there's sharper defense shown vs an opponent they know has massive power. I think Sergei's entries into the pocket get wild more often than not and Tom has the speed and countering ability to find his chin.