UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill

[PuertoRican]

Main Card​
Light Heavyweight	Alex Pereira	vs.	Jamahal Hill
Women's Strawweight	Zhang Weili	vs.	Yan Xiaonan
Lightweight	Justin Gaethje	vs.	Max Holloway
Lightweight	Charles Oliveira	vs.	Arman Tsarukyan
Middleweight	Bo Nickal	vs.	Cody Brundage
Preliminary Card (ESPN / ESPN+)​
Light Heavyweight	Jiri Prochazka	vs.	Aleksandar Rakic
Featherweight	Calvin Kattar	vs.	Aljamain Sterling
Women's Bantamweight	Holly Holm	vs.	Kayla Harrison
Featherweight	Sodiq Yusuff	vs.	Diego Lopes
Early Preliminary Card (ESPN / ESPN+)​
Lightweight	Jalin Turner	vs.	Renato Moicano
Women's Strawweight	Jessica Andrade	vs.	Marina Rodriguez
Lightweight	Bobby Green	vs.	Jim Miller
Bantamweight	Deiveson Figueiredo	vs.	Cody Garbrandt

 

[Stat_Collector]

Taping the close fights only

i think Fig, Green, Turner and Bo are all near locks 75-95% locked chance of success.

Miller could upset Green if he catches him, but Green is just stat wise beating higher ranked opponents on the feet. Miller is looking good lately against lesser competition, he can always power through, but if he lost to Alex Hernandez 1 dimensional boxing, he should lose to Greens' boxing heavy style that is much more slicker.

 

[mkess101]

Taping the close fights only

i think Fig, Green, Turner and Bo are all near locks 75-95% locked chance of success.

Miller could upset Green if he catches him, but Green is just stat wise beating higher ranked opponents on the feet. Miller is looking good lately against lesser competition, he can always power through, but if he lost to Alex Hernandez 1 dimensional boxing, he should lose to Greens' boxing heavy style that is much more slicker.

Bo obviously unplayable even though yeah he's gonna wreck Brundage. I hate the word "lock" but I do agree Turner and Green have value as they should both roll. I disagree on Fig. Garbrandt is still a hell of a boxer as long as he doesn't get baited into a brawl. Fig will try (and yes may succeed) and will probably try to grapple but Cody may have the footwork and hand speed to make it interesting. Have to favor Fig but odds way too wide imo. I'll probably have a small bet on Cody and Cody decision.

I think Armen wrecks Charles too. He's the crisper striker now, Charles has been hit and hurt numerous times recently (even in some fights he's come back to win). Armen imo has become a guy with no real flaws. At least in a 3 rounder. He faded vs Gamrot so I'd need to see proof his 5 round cardio has been fixed but that's not an issue in this fight. I think he finishes Charles and sets up the rematch with Islam.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Bo obviously unplayable even though yeah he's gonna wreck Brundage. I hate the word "lock" but I do agree Turner and Green have value as they should both roll. I disagree on Fig. Garbrandt is still a hell of a boxer as long as he doesn't get baited into a brawl. Fig will try (and yes may succeed) and will probably try to grapple but Cody may have the footwork and hand speed to make it interesting. Have to favor Fig but odds way too wide imo. I'll probably have a small bet on Cody and Cody decision.

I think Armen wrecks Charles too. He's the crisper striker now, Charles has been hit and hurt numerous times recently (even in some fights he's come back to win). Armen imo has become a guy with no real flaws. At least in a 3 rounder. He faded vs Gamrot so I'd need to see proof his 5 round cardio has been fixed but that's not an issue in this fight. I think he finishes Charles and sets up the rematch with Islam.

agree on Bo.

I fade Cody hard for big reasons. Leg kick defense against Kelleher, Fig does him worst.

Fig also is better at mixing his mma skill set. transitioning from grappling to striking at a hat. Similar to how we saw Damon Jackson 'out mma' Alex Hernandez tonight. Cody is very one dimensional in striking.


he dropped round 3 to Trevin Jones. Cody fought a low volume fight vs a low volume fighter. His mindset is just now about trying hard not to lose, which comes from a weak place.

Fig out performed against a common opponent in Rob Font, got hit less too on the feet.

I give cody a slight boxing edge, but the kicks and the good chin of Fig, are the equalizer to that.

Consider too that Fig has remained far more consistent against top competition.

pros for Cody
Cody being 32 v 36 on his side.

With all things consider Fig over -300 is more of a pass for me. i'll fade him in some bets but prop bet a dec to get better odds.



I haven't gone to that one yet, But i like Charles as a better finisher, he has a lot of strking credit for the elite mma strikers he's dropped. Armen koing Dariush to me is more about Ben not having a chin . i'll tape heavy on that one.

 

[burge13]

Hill not a bad dog. Perreira gets so much hype but his striking is very basic. Think odds should be a pick em or Hill very slight fav

Holloway to learn for the 2nd time there's weight classes for a reason. Waiting for 1.50 or more

Bobby Green line keeps improving but cant see Miller winning it so 1.57 is pretty good.

 

[KOPPE]

I still think Hill is the safer bet, But i'm not gonna pretend i know more than the experts.

 

[mkess101]

agree on Bo.

I fade Cody hard for big reasons. Leg kick defense against Kelleher, Fig does him worst.

Fig also is better at mixing his mma skill set. transitioning from grappling to striking at a hat. Similar to how we saw Damon Jackson 'out mma' Alex Hernandez tonight. Cody is very one dimensional in striking.


he dropped round 3 to Trevin Jones. Cody fought a low volume fight vs a low volume fighter. His mindset is just now about trying hard not to lose, which comes from a weak place.

Fig out performed against a common opponent in Rob Font, got hit less too on the feet.

I give cody a slight boxing edge, but the kicks and the good chin of Fig, are the equalizer to that.

Consider too that Fig has remained far more consistent against top competition.

pros for Cody
Cody being 32 v 36 on his side.

With all things consider Fig over -300 is more of a pass for me. i'll fade him in some bets but prop bet a dec to get better odds.



I haven't gone to that one yet, But i like Charles as a better finisher, he has a lot of strking credit for the elite mma strikers he's dropped. Armen koing Dariush to me is more about Ben not having a chin . i'll tape heavy on that one.

The points about Cody I can't disagree with too much. I do favor Fig. The line is just too wide. Cody still has faster hands, better footwork, and good power. He isn't clueless with wrestling either, he came up at TAM and knows how to grapple. Fig has a better chin, better bjj, and yeah I agree he blends the different aspects of MMA better. I think Cody is live. Fig should be -200 here maybe. Not -400.

I think Armen is just "that dude" now. Charles of course has hurt and finished great fighters. Islam also ran through Charles like a hot knife through butter, while Armen gave Islam a helluva fight and that was Armen's debut! Fair to say Islam improved in the time between those fights, I get that. But imo this is a fight between an ascending superstar at age 27 who's entering his prime physically with no noticeable holes in his game vs an elite guy who's 34 and is likely starting to decline a bit. Charles spent much of his career putting his body through hell cutting to 145.
This fight to me is tough to argue from a resume standpoint. Charles has quite obviously accomplished a ton at LW, guy is a great fighter. It's just the eye test for me. Armen looks like the lone guy that may give Islam real problems at 155. I think he's that good.

 

[rille31]

Didnt Armen struggle with Silva not that long ago?

Edit: Maybe not but he was in a lot of trouble end of round 2

 

[mkess101]

Didnt Armen struggle with Silva not that long ago?

He got cracked with one good shot in rd 2 that stunned him. Otherwise he beat the brakes off Silva.

Was one of those weird fights too where they were friends, trained together a ton, etc. And Silva was super short notice iirc, Armen likely had his entire camp set up for a different opponent. In the end he did what he was supposed to and smashed Silva though.

 

[XociDe]

I'd love those odds on Hill if he wasn't rushing back from a major surgery. Tim Welch said he had the exact same problem and his docs said he shouldn't even be running for 12 months. We know the UFC struggled to find a headliner for this card, did they just make him an offer he couldn't refuse?

I bet Turner against Hooker so I can never trust him again. His cut at 155 is a complete coin flip. He had a good one against Gamrot and looked amazing, arguably won. He had a bad one against Hooker and could barely stand up in the 3rd round.

I like Gaethje/Max over 3.5. Arman should win. I seriously doubt that fight goes to a decision either way. The odds on that are surprisingly good for a parlay piece.

 

[mkess101]

I'd love those odds on Hill if he wasn't rushing back from a major surgery. Tim Welch said he had the exact same problem and his docs said he shouldn't even be running for 12 months. We know the UFC struggled to find a headliner for this card, did they just make him an offer he couldn't refuse?

I bet Turner against Hooker so I can never trust him again. His cut at 155 is a complete coin flip. He had a good one against Gamrot and looked amazing, arguably won. He had a bad one against Hooker and could barely stand up in the 3rd round.

I like Gaethje/Max over 3.5. Arman should win. I seriously doubt that fight goes to a decision either way. The odds on that are surprisingly good for a parlay piece.

Hooker is such a better striker than Moicano imo. And more importantly, Hooker has been durable. Only exception I remember is when Chandler hit him with a nuclear missile that put him away. Even in the loss to Edson, Hooker took a TON of punishment before being stopped (and landed a ton himself). Moicano is terrific with top control but his TD's are just okay. And his chin imo no way holds up to Turner's power. The weight cut yeah is something to consider but him being such a huge LW also means it's likely gonna be tough for Moicano to get any grappling going. I think -220ish is fine for Turner here. He's just plain better (and naturally much bigger) than Moicano.

Agree on Max/Justin. Weird that anyone would wanna play Justin ML -2xx when Max has never been stopped by strikes. Dude has all time GOAT durability. Even his last trip up to 155, Dustin landed a lot of clean shots that Max just ate. If there was some sign of Max's chin showing decline that would be one thing. But no signs at all. If you wanna play Justin, his decision line is +240. I don't understand his itd line at +120 at all. I'd say there's probably value on NOT Justin itd at -160 or whatever. And who knows, maybe Max even performs better at LW this time and is live to pull the upset.

Edit: forgot about Hooker being stopped early by Allen. Maybe I'm overrating Hooker's durability a bit. I still think he's got a far better chin than Moicano.

 

[Guld]

-Fig/Cody (pass) I think Fig wins, but those odds don't seem right to me. Either Cody or pass. (or possibly a Fig parlay)
-Zhang/Yan (pass) Zhang over Yan due to the wrestling. Again, those odds are passable. (or possibly a Zhang parlay)
-Kattar/Sterling(livebet) This will be Sterling's first fight at FW. It'll be interesting to see if he can implement his spam strikes + backpack strat with bigger people. Especially against another solid striker.
-Bo/Brundage (pass) That ML is unplayable. Maybe play the under?
-Green/Miller (Green) Green probably wins and makes it look easy. Rooting for Miller though.
-Holm/Harrison (Harrison) but honestly, I don't care. Will probably skip this fight entirely.
-Jiri/Rakic (undecided) Jiri looked out of shape/withered in the weighins+fight with Alex. Maybe he got caught by USADA? Maybe his surgery + training has worn him down? Maybe the war with Glover changed him? Regardless, if his body looks like it did prior to Alex I'm going with Rakic. If he looks like he did prior to the Glover fight I'm going with Jiri.
-Arman/Charles (Arman) I've been on the Arman train ever since his debut. The guy is legit legit. I think he replicates what Islam did. Possibly more of a GnP stoppage than a sub though. I'm a big Charles fan too, so if he pulls off the stoppage I won't be sad one bit haha.
-Gaethje/Holloway (Holloway) Initially I was like "Oh, this is gonna be a more violent version of Dustin vs Holloway 2. RIP Holloway" but after watching the interviews and seeing the training footage of Holloway I actually think he takes it. He was undersized and out of shape for that Dustin fight. He's supposedly looking proper beefed for this one, and has that old "I'm the best, how dare you forget" attitude lately. Every time I think his chin is about to crack he keeps proving me wrong, so as long as his chin (and legs) hold up I think he exposes Gaethje's weakness (straight accurate shots) that Charles laid out.
-Hill/Poatan (livebet) Hill's boxing could honestly give Alex's chin a real test. His cardio and output as well. On the other hand, he's had a long layoff and is coming back from surgery. Better to play it safe and livebet.

 

[jnes]

Hooker is such a better striker than Moicano imo. And more importantly, Hooker has been durable. Only exception I remember is when Chandler hit him with a nuclear missile that put him away. Even in the loss to Edson, Hooker took a TON of punishment before being stopped (and landed a ton himself). Moicano is terrific with top control but his TD's are just okay. And his chin imo no way holds up to Turner's power. The weight cut yeah is something to consider but him being such a huge LW also means it's likely gonna be tough for Moicano to get any grappling going. I think -220ish is fine for Turner here. He's just plain better (and naturally much bigger) than Moicano.

Agree on Max/Justin. Weird that anyone would wanna play Justin ML -2xx when Max has never been stopped by strikes. Dude has all time GOAT durability. Even his last trip up to 155, Dustin landed a lot of clean shots that Max just ate. If there was some sign of Max's chin showing decline that would be one thing. But no signs at all. If you wanna play Justin, his decision line is +240. I don't understand his itd line at +120 at all. I'd say there's probably value on NOT Justin itd at -160 or whatever. And who knows, maybe Max even performs better at LW this time and is live to pull the upset.

Edit: forgot about Hooker being stopped early by Allen. Maybe I'm overrating Hooker's durability a bit. I still think he's got a far better chin than Moicano.

The Allen fight was at 145, a stupid weight cut for Hooker.

 

[jnes]

Hill not a bad dog. Perreira gets so much hype but his striking is very basic. Think odds should be a pick em or Hill very slight fav

Holloway to learn for the 2nd time there's weight classes for a reason. Waiting for 1.50 or more

Bobby Green line keeps improving but cant see Miller winning it so 1.57 is pretty good.

His striking hype is warranted, his striking is world class. Hill is basic standing and leaves his chin up and over extends a lot. His leg is gonna get chewed up too. I think he has to grapple or he goes to sleep.

 

[Stat_Collector]

The points about Cody I can't disagree with too much. I do favor Fig. The line is just too wide. Cody still has faster hands, better footwork, and good power. He isn't clueless with wrestling either, he came up at TAM and knows how to grapple. Fig has a better chin, better bjj, and yeah I agree he blends the different aspects of MMA better. I think Cody is live. Fig should be -200 here maybe. Not -400.

I think Armen is just "that dude" now. Charles of course has hurt and finished great fighters. Islam also ran through Charles like a hot knife through butter, while Armen gave Islam a helluva fight and that was Armen's debut! Fair to say Islam improved in the time between those fights, I get that. But imo this is a fight between an ascending superstar at age 27 who's entering his prime physically with no noticeable holes in his game vs an elite guy who's 34 and is likely starting to decline a bit. Charles spent much of his career putting his body through hell cutting to 145.
This fight to me is tough to argue from a resume standpoint. Charles has quite obviously accomplished a ton at LW, guy is a great fighter. It's just the eye test for me. Armen looks like the lone guy that may give Islam real problems at 155. I think he's that good.

It's always hard to defend a juiced price tag, almost never warranted to play when there are better prices. And yeah, Cody has enough spring in his step to get a decision.

I think I can spot a few holes in Arman's game. One is a very loose standup guard. He does get too aggressive, like Benoit St Denis, and gets counter-punched easily. Joaquim Silva caught him with a check hook that wobbled him, and then landed a knee to the body that took his wind. He ate several knees in the clinch in that fight, which is common with wrestlers; they often can get their cardio sapped with knees in the clinch, which Charles does use often. I think Charles has poor balance and can get put on his back very easily. It seems probable Arman will likely ground him and edge a decision. But one never knows with Charles; he will elbow you from the guard, knee you, spin attacks, jumping knees, etc. Charles' specialty is his unpredictable nature of throwing so much at you from random spots that it can swing the whole fight the other way; it's also what got him in trouble with Islam. I like Charles slightly more, but it's like 55/45, so I don't know, I might play him for a punt play sacrificial coin flip bet.

 

[mkess101]

It's always hard to defend a juiced price tag, almost never warranted to play when there are better prices. And yeah, Cody has enough spring in his step to get a decision.

I think I can spot a few holes in Arman's game. One is a very loose standup guard. He does get too aggressive, like Benoit St Denis, and gets counter-punched easily. Joaquim Silva caught him with a check hook that wobbled him, and then landed a knee to the body that took his wind. He ate several knees in the clinch in that fight, which is common with wrestlers; they often can get their cardio sapped with knees in the clinch, which Charles does use often. I think Charles has poor balance and can get put on his back very easily. It seems probable Arman will likely ground him and edge a decision. But one never knows with Charles; he will elbow you from the guard, knee you, spin attacks, jumping knees, etc. Charles' specialty is his unpredictable nature of throwing so much at you from random spots that it can swing the whole fight the other way; it's also what got him in trouble with Islam. I like Charles slightly more, but it's like 55/45, so I don't know, I might play him for a punt play sacrificial coin flip bet.

One thing about Armen, he's not just a wrestler with his grappling. He's a phenomenal all around grappler similar to Khabib or Islam. Charles took advantage of Gaethje and Dustin's inability to stay out of his danger zone with subs when he hurt them. I don't think that happens with Armen were he to get clipped. (Which I think somewhat unlikely anyway as I think Charles defensive striking is a bit shoddy for a guy who's a championship level fighter--he's made up for it with great offensive striking and slick subs). I think it likely that Armen catches him standing the same way Islam did. I tend to agree Armen sub isn't as likely (his sub game isn't quite Islam level) but he'd likely opt for gnp instead. But unlike others who might be scared to be in Charles' guard, Armen has the top pressure and overall grappling capabilities to neutralize what Oliveira does and to hurt Charles on the mat if it ends up there.

 

[Guld]

It's always hard to defend a juiced price tag, almost never warranted to play when there are better prices. And yeah, Cody has enough spring in his step to get a decision.

I think I can spot a few holes in Arman's game. One is a very loose standup guard. He does get too aggressive, like Benoit St Denis, and gets counter-punched easily. Joaquim Silva caught him with a check hook that wobbled him, and then landed a knee to the body that took his wind. He ate several knees in the clinch in that fight, which is common with wrestlers; they often can get their cardio sapped with knees in the clinch, which Charles does use often. I think Charles has poor balance and can get put on his back very easily. It seems probable Arman will likely ground him and edge a decision. But one never knows with Charles; he will elbow you from the guard, knee you, spin attacks, jumping knees, etc. Charles' specialty is his unpredictable nature of throwing so much at you from random spots that it can swing the whole fight the other way; it's also what got him in trouble with Islam. I like Charles slightly more, but it's like 55/45, so I don't know, I might play him for a punt play sacrificial coin flip bet.

Charles going to the scorecards seems unlikely. Win or lose.
Edit: having now said that, it'll probably happen

 

[Stat_Collector]

One thing about Armen, he's not just a wrestler with his grappling. He's a phenomenal all around grappler similar to Khabib or Islam. Charles took advantage of Gaethje and Dustin's inability to stay out of his danger zone with subs when he hurt them. I don't think that happens with Armen were he to get clipped. (Which I think somewhat unlikely anyway as I think Charles defensive striking is a bit shoddy for a guy who's a championship level fighter--he's made up for it with great offensive striking and slick subs). I think it likely that Armen catches him standing the same way Islam did. I tend to agree Armen sub isn't as likely (his sub game isn't quite Islam level) but he'd likely opt for gnp instead. But unlike others who might be scared to be in Charles' guard, Armen has the top pressure and overall grappling capabilities to neutralize what Oliveira does and to hurt Charles on the mat if it ends up there.

Arman will likely ground Charles in round 1 and win the 1st round, but his top control tends to diminish with his gas tank in rounds 2-3. It's still pretty good, but Charles has enough game to work back to his feet. Joaquim found his way up, and his grappling is stiffer than Charles'. Charles did tap against Felder when he got elbowed; it's possible he can get ground and pounded.

It's kind of a scenario where we either see Charles get beaten in dominant fashion, or he pulls an out-of-nowhere meme KO and then calls out Islam for a rematch. Arman was KOed in his second fight in 30 seconds, a long time ago but still within the realm of possibility. I can see both scenarios playing out.

Charles going to the scorecards seems unlikely. Win or lose.
Edit: having now said that, it'll probably happen

that is true stat wise.

 

[burge13]

Gaethje and over 2.5 at +140 i dont mind. Not sure why i dont see max winning but i just dont. Leg kicks, bigger, not that he ever uses it but wrestling could surprise. Max on volume sure but Gaethje should be able to walk through Max strikes to land more meaningful ones

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

I still think Hill is the safer bet, But i'm not gonna pretend i know more than the experts.

Fundamentally, when the odds are near pick-em on a fight between two fighters with tons of recent footage, there are no "safe" bets on the ML.

Folks definition of what constitutes a "safe" bet varies widely but imo that type of language is thrown around far too loosely in youtube videos by self proclaimed "experts".