UFC Fight Island III: Benavidez v Figuereido II

[Naught2Sixty]

Kennedy was a beast grappler and a giant at MW too, the guy outgrappled arguably the best pure grappler of all time in Roger Gracie FFS. Jacare at that point was still manhandling everyone in the grappling game at MW, the first time we saw him truly look like he was on a serious decline was vs Hermannson. Weidman's chin was definitely starting to go when he fought Kelvin, I agree there. And Kelvin actually clipped him and hurt him a bit iirc. But Weidman's grappling was still on point, he was a ridiculously good grappler still. Better overall than Hermannson.

KG blasted The Chris with a 1-2 and dropped him on his ass. Chris might have been saved by the bell.

Also to KG's defense of the Weidman fight, he never really grappled like that before. Mixing up his wrestling and BJJ a lot. Matt Serra afterward was praising Chris on his new wrinkles they were working on in his game.

 

[theTKDguy]

Is Joey's age and battle damage a factor?

Could be, yeah. Imo it's more of a tough matchup. Joe isn't really a great striker, more of a cardio and movement guy and he lacks the boxing to deal with figueiredo's ridiculous power. He couldn't get him to the ground either. Deiveson is a fast twitch monster. He does gas tho, so joe def has a ptv here, just less likely. I think the odds are right.

 

[mkess101]

KG blasted The Chris with a 1-2 and dropped him on his ass. Chris might have been saved by the bell.

Also to KG's defense of the Weidman fight, he never really grappled like that before. Mixing up his wrestling and BJJ a lot. Matt Serra afterward was praising Chris on his new wrinkles they were working on in his game.

And...people absolutely don't understand how much of a grappling savant Weidman was. The guy had an ultra competitive grappling match with Andre freaking Galvao when Chris had only been training BJJ for 9 months!! That's just unheard of.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Everyone made weight.
Front facing pics - https://www.gettyimages.ca/photos/ufc?family=editorial&phrase=UFC&sort=newest#license

Is there a video of this? or did it happen private?

 

[Sono07]

Is there a video of this? or did it happen private?

Here ya go man. Just sitting down to watch it myself.

 

[Sadistics]

The Caucasian Wolf (Roman Dolidze) is the new Brown Bear (Devin Clark), both in style and looks. I quite like the o1.5 here around -150.

 

[Bork Lazer]

God damn I hate Ariane Lipski. Only because I ALWAYS gravitate towards betting on her due to her immense hotness. God damn honey pot full of disappointment.....but I digress....

Anyways, I know this didn't add to the betting discussion, just wanted to vent some frustration.

 

[im a clitasauras rex]

i feel like benavidez is worth a small bet this is his 4th time fighting for a title he must know this is his last shot at it i feel like that is worth something and not sold on figueirdo either tends to just throw one hitter quitters and gasses after the second look at the way formiga beat him with ease benavidez could do the same and for 5 rounds imo

 

[lefontes]

i feel like benavidez is worth a small bet this is his 4th time fighting for a title he must know this is his last shot at it i feel like that is worth something and not sold on figueirdo either tends to just throw one hitter quitters and gasses after the second look at the way formiga beat him with ease benavidez could do the same and for 5 rounds imo

Im on Benavidez on championship rounds.

 

[mkess101]

^^^^Ha yep was just about to post this. I just watched a few fights. Figuerido was fading Rd 3 vs Pantoja. He's ridiculously talented but the guy doesn't manage his energy all that well. Throws bombs from the start and for sure I could see Joe lighting him up late if it goes that far. I just put bets in on Joe B Rd 4 at +2550 and Rd 5 at +3150.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

I checked Fig's record and he's actually never gotten a finish past the 2nd round in his career. Kinda makes sense he looked like he was starting to slow in the last fight and honestly if it wasn't for that headbutt he may have started to drown in the later rounds, certainly he was getting outvolumed from the start.

 

[im a clitasauras rex]

Im on Benavidez on championship rounds.

I might go benavidez ML or dec undecided Also really like the over 2.5 at -150 will throw some on that too

 

[mkess101]

Found another line I like. Just watched John's/Munhoz and holy shit is John's durable. Cannot see Jackson finishing at all. And Johns is not afraid to take chances and get after it.

I'm playing John's NSC at +105.

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

After rewatching Hermansson vs Cannonier, I noticed that Jack drops his hands when he throws his kicks. Might be his downfall tomorrow. Kelvin is deceptively fast at closing the distance and Jack sometimes throws lazy strikes.

If Jack comes in to grapple, I like his ML and sub prop and dec. Not sure what I’m betting here anymore. Might just LB after a round. Maybe sprinkle something on Jacks sub line which is +600

 

[Martialbeef]

After rewatching Hermansson vs Cannonier, I noticed that Jack drops his hands when he throws his kicks. Might be his downfall tomorrow. Kelvin is deceptively fast at closing the distance and Jack sometimes throws lazy strikes.

If Jack comes in to grapple, I like the over. Not sure what I’m betting here anymore. Might just LB after a round. Maybe sprinkle something on Jacks sub line which is +600

If Jack chooses to grapple and is successful doing so, he probably gets top control and gets off some nasty GnP or finds a sub. Why would that make you go the over? Has he shown lay and pray before?

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Bettors are high on Joe Duffy worth taking a shot a small bet on him? havent seen much tape on his opponent.

 

[Martialbeef]

Bettors are high on Joe Duffy worth taking a shot a small bet on him? havent seen much tape on his opponent.

I don’t see the point with those odds. He has touched on retirement recently and looked meh versus Diakese. Obviously this Spaniard isn’t on Marc’s level but all it takes is him to outpoint Joe whilst Joe not committing to winning rounds

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

If Jack chooses to grapple and is successful doing so, he probably gets top control and gets off some nasty GnP or finds a sub. Why would that make you go the over? Has he shown lay and pray before?

Because I think Kelvin can last longer than 1.5 rounds? But fair point. Maybe I’m going small on Jack by sub and Kelvin by TKO or maybe I’ll pass on this one

jack has been finished twice at MW.

 

[Gugabe]

Would I be absolutely stunned if Jack subbed him? No. But I'd be pretty damn surprised.

You gotta look at who we're talking about at MW too. Weidman was an absolute beast grappler at that point. Kennedy too, until he gassed. Jacare prior to his big dropoff (which as I mentioned happened quickly).

Yeah, but like who's the BJJ guys at Herm's 'level' that Gastelum has been not tapped by? I also like just how obscenely aggro Hermansson is with his grappling, and he doesn't have the gassing factor that stopped Jacare from tapping him. Like Jacare ultra-casually got to mount and threw it away being an idiot then gassed badly enough he never got back there.

Gastelum's just a bit tricky since like he's been violated by fresh Jacare and Weidman, but who's the next best submission threat that he's shut down? I think the way he gets up really plays into what Hermnasson does well, too. BJJ's a bit odd in that an aggro B+ can be more likely to finish than a conservative A+, and I trust Herm to put in the attempts at finishing Gastelum. I also trust Herm to be able to stick to him and not gas.

Isn't Gastelum your nemesis? I can't get a bead over the dude really. Constantly under and over performing in every phase.

Not a fan for a few reasons, but he's not like a gigantic fade I've had. Mostly since his strength of schedule's been so weak. I bet Israel Dec, Jacare sub/ML, Weidman ML/Sub and Gastelum sub over Bisping in his fights and I'm up like 15u on him historically, but he's not an Ortega or something where I've faded him prettymuch every time out. I just think his lack of volume and generally mediocre skillset means he's very hard to bet on unless he's being the Pensioner Punisher.

 

[theTKDguy]

On hermansson ml with kelvin ko as hedge. I think kelvin could win a dec but veery unlikely.


Figueiredo winning a dec is basically impossible no?