UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall

[johno]

Crazy value in Klein +310.

Is there really?
I agree the line is wide but Klein has proven to be a mediocre fighter. Sure he has some power but that's about it. He gases, shows poor iq and doesn't react well to forward pressure.
Jones is hittable but he has an iron chin coupled with good cardio and forward pressure.
Short of a headkick I can't see Klein coming away with a win

 

[JPgimmeTheLoot]

Crazy value in Klein +310.

Agreed his left high kick is nasty too. Not the best responder to pressure though, I think if Klein catches him it's early.

 

[Thesnake101]

Don't forget Jones embraced the grappling against Onama, expect the same here against Klein who's lost on the ground.

 

[The Eagle]

Agreed his left high kick is nasty too. Not the best responder to pressure though, I think if Klein catches him it's early.

Yeah I remember his fight against Trizano where he struggled from Mike's constant pressure. Is Jones one of those fighters also? I haven't seen his fights.

 

[Thesnake101]

Yeah I remember his fight against Trizano where he struggled from Mike's constant pressure. Is Jones one of those fighters also? I haven't seen his fights.

Yeah, his whole game is pressure whether it is with striking or grappling like he did against Onama in his last fight.

He's also shown a remarkable chin when going against heavy hitters like Davis and the aforementioned Onama, the line is wide but I actually think it's accurate.

 

[PuertoRican]

Blaydes is now +130

 

[svmr_db]

Don't forget Jones embraced the grappling against Onama, expect the same here against Klein who's lost on the ground.

Jones could definitely outgrapple Klein but the catch is that Jones is stepping in as a replacement on short notice, his gas tank may be a little sus for this fight if it goes long.

 

[Oblivian]

Anyone halfway tempted by Rosa here? I've been very critical of Rosa in the past, but these odds are very inflated.

 

[PuertoRican]

Anyone halfway tempted by Rosa here? I've been very critical of Rosa in the past, but these odds are very inflated.

You could always bet on Rosa just to watch him lose a unanimous decision or get finished in Round 2, and tell yourself that "he was the side" or that "there was value on Rosa," or you can pass on the fight altogether.

Rosa's only chance is to win via submission (long shot), but his BJJ for MMA isn't good, no matter how many times the commentators mention his black belt during his fights.

 

[Dirtey]

Blaydes is now +130

Yeah, really tempted to hit him on bet365 but it is down atm

 

[Stat_Collector]

Faded Chris Curtis, I think Jack pulls off the upset. I saw holes in Chris' game in the Viera fight, some gassiness and getting touched a lot by a bjj guy. Passing on both just because.

 

[mkess101]

Faded Chris Curtis, I think Jack pulls off the upset. I saw holes in Chris' game in the Viera fight, some gassiness and getting touched a lot by a bjj guy. Passing on both just because.

Really seems like it will come down to whether Jack can get his grappling going at all. He just seems too pedestrian with his standup. Curtis showed good counter grappling vs Viera, maybe Jack's TD's are a bit better (maybe) even if he's not the phenom that Rodolfo is once it hits the mat.

I agree that Curtis has defensive holes standing. Hawes was piecing him up until Curtis landed the big shot that turned ths fight around. Curtis does seem to have a good chin and solid power so if Jack can't get him down he's in danger the whole time. Jack is very hittable standing, he needs this to be a grinding type fight with cage hugging, TD's, etc.

 

[PuertoRican]

Faded Chris Curtis, I think Jack pulls off the upset. I saw holes in Chris' game in the Viera fight, some gassiness and getting touched a lot by a bjj guy. Passing on both just because.

I am fading Blaydes/Aspinall and Hermansson/Curtis pre-fight, and will live bet during Round 1, only after I see how both guys are fighting and how they deal with the first TD attempt.

Everyone is on Aspinall and Curtis, which I'm not against, but legit everyone is on them, and I don't feel comfortable taking either side of those fights pre-fight.

 

[Bestonian]

I think Leavitt, Hermansson and Bladyes all get it easily done

Hermansson is a minute winner regardless of whether the fight does to the mats or not. Dude pushes high volume, smart fight IQ, persistent and strong cardio.
Leavitt and Blaydes are simply better grapplers and will have their way with the opponents who will gladly and willingly grapple.

 

[The Disasters]

Crazy value in Klein +310.

I agree that the price is too big but I think he's really up against it from what we've seen from him so far. The style matchup seems so obvious here. The reason I took another look at this one and will likely make a small Klein play is because of how young he is. He showed more in his last fight than he did in his prior fight and if he continues to improve then he becomes a much more interesting fighter. Jones has shown the same level of grit and skill in each fight so I think we know what we're gonna get with him.

Anyone halfway tempted by Rosa here? I've been very critical of Rosa in the past, but these odds are very inflated.

Absolutely not. Even with a size advantage Rosa isn't explosive enough and his takedown defense is atrocious.

 

[The Disasters]

I think Leavitt, Hermansson and Bladyes all get it easily done.

I don't think Leavitt does anything easily! He seems to make things as hard as he can for himself. This is another one where the odds are stupid but I don't like the other side enough to risk much.

I'm with you on on Hermansson though, and I will hit Blaydes medium as we get closer to the fight because I think he'll keep getting longer. Highest I have available is +125 and I think I'll find it over +130 before the fight.

 

[mkess101]

I think Leavitt, Hermansson and Bladyes all get it easily done

Hermansson is a minute winner regardless of whether the fight does to the mats or not. Dude pushes high volume, smart fight IQ, persistent and strong cardio.
Leavitt and Blaydes are simply better grapplers and will have their way with the opponents who will gladly and willingly grapple.

I'd heavily favor Jack if it was 5 rounds. Curtis slowed vs Viera after 2. I would worry about Curtis stuffing TD's and being the more accurate striker for 10 minutes and then fading but only enough for Jack to win Rd 3 and drop the decision.

I really think Jack needs to hit a TD and have some control time in Rd 1 or 2 nd steal one of those rounds that way.

 

[TrueAscension]

Settled on a small parlay and 2500 dollar bet on Aspinall. Was going to do 10k but I’m a puss. GL all

 

[PuertoRican]

UFC FN 208 PBP/Discussion: https://forums.sherdog.com/threads/ufc-fn-208-pbp-discussion.4248254/

 

[Stat_Collector]

Really seems like it will come down to whether Jack can get his grappling going at all. He just seems too pedestrian with his standup. Curtis showed good counter grappling vs Viera, maybe Jack's TD's are a bit better (maybe) even if he's not the phenom that Rodolfo is once it hits the mat.

I agree that Curtis has defensive holes standing. Hawes was piecing him up until Curtis landed the big shot that turned ths fight around. Curtis does seem to have a good chin and solid power so if Jack can't get him down he's in danger the whole time. Jack is very hittable standing, he needs this to be a grinding type fight with cage hugging, TD's, etc.

Jack has a bigger frame 6'1 vs 5'10. and i dont see major difference in the standup, jack throws everything with solid form. he landed a lot on Sean Strickland who is like a orthodox version of Curtis. I don't like the resistance here. Chris can win this but there is too much competition here. The odds are dead tie and its accurate, also the placement of the fight being co main is a parlay killer. Despite playing aspinall at the end, i have higher confidence in him because of his speed movement and bjj.