UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs Shahbazyan

[Tirimasuperman]

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Randy Brown at +162 is kinda intriguing as a gut feeling without any research. Say that because Luque looks like he's been on the decline to me, probably been in too many wars. Arguably lost to Perry, got smashed by Wonderboy and struggled mightily vs Niko Price. Meanwhile from memory Brown has been looking better fight to fight lately. Needs some research though and I'm also waiting to see if the line gets even wider.

Also the Brunson main event is going to be 3 rounds only instead of 5, although might not matter.

 

[BigSteve]

Randy Brown at +162 is kinda intriguing as a gut feeling without any research. Say that because Luque looks like he's been on the decline to me, probably been in too many wars. Arguably lost to Perry, got smashed by Wonderboy and struggled mightily vs Niko Price. Meanwhile from memory Brown has been looking better fight to fight lately. Needs some research though and I'm also waiting to see if the line gets even wider.

Also the Brunson main event is going to be 3 rounds only instead of 5, although might not matter.

Agreed, I was a serial Brown fader, guy has improved leaps and bounds. Gota give it to him. Placed 2u on him.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

This is a much better fight card.

I am liking Ed Herman/ Meerscharert. A number of odds had still not being added yet.Meerscharert should be a fav?

 

[Broe.]

Agreed, I was a serial Brown fader, guy has improved leaps and bounds. Gota give it to him. Placed 2u on him.

Yeah but the leg kicks, historically a big problem for Brown. And Luque is a master at it.

 

[BigSteve]

Yeah but the leg kicks, historically a big problem for Brown. And Luque is a master at it.

Il have to look into it more before I decide to let it ride or add more. Id like to think the leg defence has improved since the Belal fight when it was a big problem. Warley fight didn't pose much problems but there wasn't much standup. At those odds its worth a shot I think, but regardless Luque by finish is a good hedge

 

[BigSteve]

Anyone got any early thoughts on Valiev making his debu weight class up against Emmers? Emmers 5'10 and 74 inch each v 5'6 and 68 reach. Emmers size plus wrestling background, potentially bad matchup. Iv seen Valiev taken down in his last 2 regional fights with reactive shots, he usually gets up or outmuscles his opponent's, but thats at BW.

Im not a fan of Emmers fight IQ though

 

[edole]

Martinez should be able to take care of 39-year old Saenz.

Perez should be able to take care of Spicely.

Imo

 

[Broe.]

is gutierrez not fighting luke sanders?

 

[2020Tracked]

Can't see how anyone would watch tape and come away thinking Brown is a good bet. He's really bad off of his back, his take down defence is weak, he doesn't have power, he's really heavy on his lead leg and in the Balal fight he took 25 kicks to the lower leg in just the first round.

Luque can pressure him back, kick the leg, has a good submission game, will jump into his guard if they end up on the ground, a rock chin, better boxing, more power.

I see Brown's only paths either being a fluke sub from bottom or if Luque's durability has jumped off a cliff and a jab just collapses him.

 

[2020Tracked]

Have to imagine Brunson will have the Izzy/Hall game plan, look to clinch early against the cage and try and weigh on Edmun. Have to question Brunson in terms of age and durability at this point, but he did look fine against Heinisch.

Edmun seems to pack more of a punch than people expect, but his quick KO's are against bums. He ground out Swewart for 2 rounds but it all fell apart in the third, very strange fight.

I'd have to favour Edmun slightly but no value in his money line, potentially a play on his KO/TKO, line depending, but most likely a pass fight unless you trust Edmun as a parley peice.

I have no doubt if it's close and goes to a decision then Edmun gets it

 

[Tirimasuperman]

Hate myself for this, but JoJo Calderwood sucks off her back

Was dominated there by Kalindra Faria until she got the Hail Mary sub, Andrea Lee got her down twice and held here there for a minute or so

Obviously she has the advantage on the feet, but if Maia gets JoJo down it'll be a while before she's back up again, and that doesn't look great to the judges

 

[2020Tracked]

Hate myself for this, but JoJo Calderwood sucks off her back

Was dominated there by Kalindra Faria until she got the Hail Mary sub, Andrea Lee got her down twice and held here there for a minute or so

Obviously she has the advantage on the feet, but if Maia gets JoJo down it'll be a while before she's back up again, and that doesn't look great to the judges

I see it as a 50/50 fight, split decision is the likely outcome. I'd give Calderwood the edge in terms of variety and out put, Maia the edge in terms of power and physicality.

I think the fight will come down to very small moments.

Kind of have to take the dog as the value side, may as well play the decision too on who ever you pick

 

[TrueAscension]

Randy Brown at +162 is kinda intriguing as a gut feeling without any research. Say that because Luque looks like he's been on the decline to me, probably been in too many wars. Arguably lost to Perry, got smashed by Wonderboy and struggled mightily vs Niko Price. Meanwhile from memory Brown has been looking better fight to fight lately. Needs some research though and I'm also waiting to see if the line gets even wider.

Also the Brunson main event is going to be 3 rounds only instead of 5, although might not matter.

The step up in competition for Brown is massive.

 

[Tirimasuperman]

I see it as a 50/50 fight, split decision is the likely outcome. I'd give Calderwood the edge in terms of variety and out put, Maia the edge in terms of power and physicality.

I think the fight will come down to very small moments.

Kind of have to take the dog as the value side, may as well play the decision too on who ever you pick

Haunting memories of the last time I took a DEC line in a WMMA match and Tecia won by sub

 

[lefontes]

This event will be in small cage? This is the great info for our bets.

 

[TrueAscension]

This event will be in small cage? This is the great info for our bets.

Ya bunnnnnnch of round 1 props should cash.

 

[Broe.]

The step up in competition for Brown is massive.

Its not really. Luque had a competitive fight with price. Brown was dominating Price before the freakish KO. It is just a hard matchup for him I think. But rankingwise I would put them around the same spot.

 

[theTKDguy]

I love to fade brunson but shahbazyan ml is unplayable at current odds imho. Im sold on his abbilities but i really feel he's small for mw (ala gastelum), brunson could employ a grappling heavy gameplan and maybe overpower him over the course of 3+ rds. Of course derek is chinny af so Shahbazyan by tko is the most likely outcome, but brunson ml and the under 4.5 or fdgtd could be good.

Maybe holland?

 

[TrueAscension]

Its not really. Luque had a competitive fight with price. Brown was dominating Price before the freakish KO. It is just a hard matchup for him I think. But rankingwise I would put them around the same spot.

Luque has fought much higher competition than Brown. At these odds, its hard to pass up betting on Brown but Luque just brings it so hard every fight he's hard to bet against imo. Ya Wonderboy wooped his ass but Luque always seems to find a way to win a fight even taking a ton of damage.