UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs Gastelum - Discussion Thread

svmr_db

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No UFC card until Aug 21st but at least all the odds are out

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https://www.sherdog.com/events/UFC-on-ESPN-29-Cannonier-vs-Gastelum-89378

https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/ufc-on-espn-cannonier-vs-gastelum-2166

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_on_ESPN:_Cannonier_vs._Gastelum

https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/79118-ufc-fight-night
 
I need to know what kind of crystals Cannonier is rocking with for this fight before I can invest in him. If anyone knows plz kindly share.

Nah what you really need to find out is if he's training with his magic strobe glasses that allow him to see the future, through walls and in slow mo



 
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Lines have moved on a lot of these fights and 9 or 10 of them are basically in a pick'em odds range. Big card, and two weeks for people pull out and fights to change
 
Gastelum is undefeated against people in their mid to late thirties at MW. He must thrive with a speed advantage.

Cannonier has good power and decent versatility; i felt like he had good performance against Whittaker.

I don't think Gastelum boxing has looked as sharp as it used too. He must of stopping working with that coach.

I don't know how much cannonier power goes for in this match; gastelum has an Iron chin.
 
Gastelum is undefeated against people in their mid to late thirties at MW. He must thrive with a speed advantage.

Cannonier has good power and decent versatility; i felt like he had good performance against Whittaker.

I don't think Gastelum boxing has looked as sharp as it used too. He must of stopping working with that coach.

I don't know how much cannonier power goes for in this match; gastelum has an Iron chin.
The over props could be nice depending on odds.
 
Roberts-Dec
Palotnik-Dec
Martinez-KO2
Cherant-Dec
Pilarte-Dec
Saldana-Dec
Malecki-Dec
Neto-Sub2
Pantoja-Dec
Casey-Dec
Pichel-Dec
Sherman-KO2
Madsen-Dec
Cannoier-KO2
 
Kelvin Gastelum
  • 2-4 in his last 6.
  • Very durable.
  • Boxing hasn't looked as good as it once did; showed some pretty nice wrestling against Ian though.
  • Jumped as replacement for Costa.
Jared Cannonier
  • 3-1 in his career at middleweight. Only lost to Whittaker. Sold me on his durability.
  • Powerful; versatile with his leg kicks. Statistically some pretty good defense.
  • Height, Size & Reach advantage.
  • Old for the division; 37. I would still say he has the athleticism in his advantage, maybe you wouldn't.
  • He stuffed both Whittaker takedowns; who I would consider an above average offensive wrestling.
  • Good Gym at MMA Lab.
 
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Mark Madsen
  • Literal Olympian; Greco-Roman Wrestler. Undefeated
  • Had to win with a lot of injuries; staph infection, shoulder injury & broken jaw.
  • Quite bad striking. Slight height & reach advantage though. Good Chin.
  • Not completely sold on his top control or GnP. Hubbard is quite good at getting up though.
Clay Guida
  • Both have some pretty low volume. Clay has pretty good defense (statistically)
  • My mans is a 39 year lightweight. 2-3 in his last 5. That includes a decision over washed Michael Johnson & BJ Penn. And a loss to current champ and Jim Miller.
 
Likely will play Madsen and Connonier.
 
Guida +235
gastelum +175

pretty obvious plays and great lines.
Other than that, I dunno

Whoa BAS lines are WAY different than that.

Guida +134
Gastelum +136

I'm going against both most likely but that's because I have Madsen -154 and Cannonier -156.
 
I'm gonna go big on Gastelum, think he's got a great matchup in front of him. His speed should give Jared fits on the feet, and his wrestling will be a deal breaker imo.

While Jared seemingly fixed his awful TDD by moving down to MW, the two guys that tested it (Jack and Branch) don't have the best of conventional takedowns and Kelvin actually looked pretty good there against Heinisch, a guy that showcased his takedown defense against many a grappler/wrestler before.

Leomana Martinez is also a guy I'm looking to put money on. His loss to Drako has aged poorly, but he's got more than enough power to absolutely sleep Strader.
 
Took a shot on Cherant at 3.45. I feel like he might give Knight the kind of fight he wants because Cherant does back up a lot and always fishes for that guillotine, but Knight is fucking terrible so I'm willing to bet against this guy if I can get big dog odds.
 
Whoa BAS lines are WAY different than that.

Guida +134
Gastelum +136

I'm going against both most likely but that's because I have Madsen -154 and Cannonier -156.
I got down on gas over a week ago and caught guidas opener

I would get away from bas. I know you’re not playing seriously but you are leaving money on the table by not having a bol account.

you would’ve been able to hedge your Cheisa play and made even more last night

It’s not hard to set up an account and doesn’t take much time

bas is a total wasteland now and only good for
Live betting, which bol also offers
 
Took a shot on Cherant at 3.45. I feel like he might give Knight the kind of fight he wants because Cherant does back up a lot and always fishes for that guillotine, but Knight is fucking terrible so I'm willing to bet against this guy if I can get big dog odds.
Knight is way juiced, line is wide. I’m still considering a play on cherant or a pass

don’t really care for cherant
 
Likely will play Madsen and Connonier.
This is a tailor made matchup for guida to outgrind madsen

think gastelum is going to wear cannonier down over 5 rounds. If it was 3 rounds I’d favor cannonier but not in this spot
 
Jared Cannonier (age 37) will have a 6 inch reach advantage over southpaw Kelvin Gastelum (age 29)

Jared Cannonier has faced 4 southpaws in the UFC:
Shawn Jordan, Ion Cutelaba, Dominick Reyes, Anderson Silva

Interview from Jared Cannonier:
“Kelvin has got a good wrestling base.
He’s got knockout power in his hands.
He’s not afraid to mix it up with bigger guys.
He’s been in the middleweight division since he had come up from the welterweight division. He’s not necessarily a big middleweight.
You know, he’s got the heart of a Mexican warrior and a big ass head to go along with it.
Kelvin Gastelum is a formidable opponent, just by name.
I respect the man a lot, I respect what he’s done, I respect the energy he brings into his fights.
I feel like I have the striking advantage.
Me personally, I think I have a different presence in the Octagon, in a fight in general.
It’s an indomitable presence, if you will.
So I’m interested to see how he deals with it.
He’s going to make his adjustments, and then I’m going to make some more adjustments.
I’m definitely going to put my hands on him, I’m going to try to not get hit by him.
I want to hit and not get hit, and I want to come out of there with not one scratch, no broken limbs or shit like that.
I want to go out there and put him away quick, fast, and in a hurry.
Wherever the fight goes is where I intend to finish the fight.
That’s always my intent. I’m just ready to go in there and throw some hands.
That’s what’s going to happen. No matter what happens, no matter where it goes.
I assume he’s going to have to wrestle.
Because when the fire starts coming in, what else can you do?
The best option for you is to wrestle.”
-Jared Cannonier

............................................

UFC Vegas 34
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum
Saturday, August 21, 2021
6 pm eastern

parlay
+231

Mana Martinez -180 "Manaboi"
Cortney Casey -200 "Cast Iron", 5 inch reach Advantage
William Knight -240 "Knightmare"

#UFCVegas34

Words I found:

Mana Leomana Martinez:
started training karate at the age of 4
Karate black belt, purple belt BJJ
Favorite grappling technique: Armbar
Favorite Striking technique: Leg kicks
Martinez enters with 7 wins in his most recent 8 fights.
His lone loss in the stretch came against Drako Rodriguez on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2020

Mana Martinez defeated Jose Johnson via KO/TKO in 32 seconds on May 16, 2021 at Fury FC 46
.....................

Cortney Casey:
brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu
5 inch reach Advantage
Age 34
Casey Cortney has been competing in the UFC since 2015.
She is a real veteran in the sport and holds wins over fighters like Randa Markos, Jessica Aguilar, and Angela Hill.
Long, rangy striker that isn’t afraid to take fighters to the mat and look for submissions.
Following a length run at 115 pounds, Cortney Casey announced her arrival in the Featherweight division by tapping Mara Romero Borella with a bonus-winning arm bar.
One month later, she stepped up on short notice against Gillian Robertson, who caught her in a rear-naked choke late in the third round.
Casey’s physicality and relentlessness allow her to trade hands with many in the division.
Casey once went to 3 consecutive split decisions and has a lack of upper-body movement.
Casey is woeful to watch but her physical advantages and aggression have carried her in a division where you are rarely punished for sloppy striking defense. Lost when she ends up on her back, Casey instead needs the fight to remain standing. From there, Casey just plants her feet and launches five/six punch combinations. It is a shame then that Casey doesn’t move her feet, head or land many of the shots during those blitzes.
Cortney Casey has allowed 15 takedowns from 25 takedown attempts in her last 6 fights, since 2018.

(Liana Jojua’s only gameplan is to take the fight to the mat and submit an opponent. Being beaten on the feet handily by Diana Belbiţă in a previous fight, Belbiţă screwed the pooch when she entered Jojua’s guard before being submitted by an armbar. Jojua is a one-trick pony)


.....................

William Knight quote:
“I used to fight three times in one month. MMA, Muay Thai, and MMA again.
Or I would fight in a tournament, fight five times in one night, and two weeks later, fight 205 in the cage.
People don’t understand, I come from a wrestling background.
I wrestled four, five times in one day after weighing in.
So the grind is real. They would say it’s different because striking is involved, but when you hit me, I get ramped up.
It’s not like ‘okay he’s hitting me to hurt me.’ People think that I’m hurt, or I’m staggered, I’m ramping up.”
That comes from my past, that I don’t like speaking on, but I was abused as a child.
So me as an adult, I like to ramp up. It ramps me up, it wakes me up, it’s like an adrenaline rush.”

Knight isn’t going to beat many at the mid-range, but he is an extremely powerful grinder who batters the leg before getting up close to land dirty boxing. Unfortunately, when backing up he leaves his chin wide open and aimed at the ceiling.

Knight is a powerhouse of a man who can hold his own on the feet and threaten with the occasional takedown. Knight is a fire hydrant. He’s short, stocky, hugely powerful and extremely explosive, and he has a solid wrestling base.





 
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Gastelum has only beat the also terrible Ian Heinish I his last 5 fights. Yeah he's fighting very good guys but he's just such a one trick pony, just a quick one two and nothing else. He could beat Cannonier here, Cannon coming off an injury, a long lay off, he's never been in a five rounder before, he's an older guy.

Skill for skill I think Cannonier is much more dangerous and versatile, his low kick game alone is a big weapon, but this might just be a case of Cannonier missed the boat on his chance at the top of the devision
 
I remember when Cannonier fought Anderson Silva, everyone was talking about how he can’t handle southpaws. I get that he lost to Reyes and Jordan, but does he actually deal badly with them?
 
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