UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs Gastelum - Discussion Thread

[Noel Wards]

Panjota had a real bad case of Covid, he might be fully recovered he might not.

I'm liking Porter over Sherman. Heavy GnP and BJJ brown belt with good boxing & cardio over former bare Knuckle fighter.

 

[Thesnake101]

Panjota had a real bad case of Covid, he might be fully recovered he might not.

I'm liking Porter over Sherman. Heavy GnP and BJJ brown belt with good boxing & cardio over former bare Knuckle fighter.

He's also a hittable, blown up LHW though. I guess he might be worth it as a dog, but Chase might just leg kick him to death.

Honestly, this reminds me of that fight Roque Martinez had a few months ago against a dude whose name escapes me - low level HW affair that can go either way and should not have much money put on.

Sidenote: I actually feel like Madsen might be close to a lock here, but maybe I'm just being a tard that's overstating the value of a silver medal.

Can't see Clay trying to do anything besides trying to outbox Mark given what I believe to be the wrestling disparity between an ancient Clay and a relative newcomer in Madsen. Sure, Guida was competitive with Bobby Green but I think that was more due to the matchup rather than him having a lot left on the tank.

Bobby has been put on bad positions by guys like Erik Koch, and Guida didn't look as dominant as he should have over an extremely washed up Penn. The MJ fight I don't put too much stock on since Johnson made Stevie Ray look like Rockhold.

 

[Noel Wards]

I'm liking Madsen too. In the end I'm probably just gonna pick him & Cannonier.

 

[mkess101]

You can't be serious with this one can you? The guy that knocked BJ out had a considerable weight advantage and BJ was wasted. Anyways, what's Madsens path to victory here? From what I remember about him (haven't watched tape) but his striking is almost non existent, and relies on takedowns, but his top control isn't that good so he has to rely on mat returns. Correct me if I'm wrong but that's how he beat Hubbard, and Hubbard in the stand up was just scared to throw because of the fear of the takedown.

Guida might be a fossil but he's still a guy that will fight for your money, I think he can outgrind Madsen. If the fight stays standing I favour Guida pretty easily. Madsen isn't a young guy himself either, he's 36 and has been wrestling at a high level since 2004

The BJ thing was a joke mostly.

Madsen is a one trick pony but he's beyond elite at that one trick. I think he wins 2 rounds with takedowns and holding Clay against the cage, then yeah he could definitely fade but at that point Guida needs a finish.

 

[Thesnake101]

Some excerpts I found in a 2017 article about Neto...

"Back in July 2015, Antonio Braga Neto pulled out of his UFC welterweight debut due to an injury. Now, years later, he finally is returning to the Octagon."
""I disappeared because I had some problems, I was a bit upset and didn’t want to talk to anyone,” Neto said. "But I’m fine now, thank God.”"
""I couldn’t train with my head worried about those problems I had to solve,” he said."
"The two-time jiu-jitsu world champion then decided to change sports — and found a new passion in poker."
"Neto weights 247 pounds now"
"I was desperate and anxious,” he continued. "If I’m using all the money I’m making now to survive, when I stop fighting I’ll be f*cked. I decided to do other things to make money and don’t depend on that money to survive, but I realize now that fighting is what I love to do, that’s what makes me happy.”
"Neto said he just wants to be happy."


Neto then proceeded to go on a 4 year hiatus


And more from wikipedia...

"Neto was scheduled to face Andrew Sanchez on August 25, 2018 at UFC Fight Night 135. However, Neto was removed from the bout on August 2 for undisclosed personal issues and replaced by Markus Perez Echeimberg."
"Neto was scheduled to face Deron Winn on December 19, 2020 at UFC Fight Night 185However, Braga Neto was removed from the contest due to undisclosed reasons and replaced by Antônio Arroyo."



Alhassen vs Neto is headcase against headcase. Hard pass.

No, we go all in on Neto.

Jokes aside, I am picking him, and might throw a little his way, but yeah, it's got all the makings of a weird fight. Antonio blocks punches with his face to get to the takedown, and he is durable when fresh, and Abdul looked downright awful when defending takedowns against Malkoun.

 

[Deleted member 581330]

Panjota had a real bad case of Covid, he might be fully recovered he might not.

That was before the Kape fight and he looked fine during it.

 

[ballsackarino]

Outside of these plays I think Sherman gets it done relatively easily. Don't know if I like him more than -200 though.

Sherman is not a good fighter. He's making bums on Island Fights look decent. His defence is terrible, and Parker Porter despite his horrendous physique does have pretty good boxing for heavyweight, is voluminous, and has decent cardio to back it up. I think Porter is the side in this matchup. Sherman too much of a bum to be betting at -200

 

[Noel Wards]

Agreed on Porter. @ballsackarino

Might take a risk and add to my parlay. Sherman doesn't really have the power of a decent HW anyway.

 

[Main_Card_MMA]

I don't see a lot that I like on this card. Probably gonna skip betting unless some of the props are good. Lotta old guys.

Is there any chance of a finish in Madsen/Guida or Pichel/Hubbard? I think the DEC lines might be good, but if they aren't +170 or higher then I'll avoid them. The overs will probably be 2.5 and in the -200s, maybe more, so might be a 2 leg parlay.

Cannonier's losses aren't that bad, but he only went 5 once and as a heavyweight. Gastelum has limited striking so I think he will have to wrestle the bigger, stronger guy and I'm not sold on Cannonier's td defense especially in the 3rd and beyond. I don't know if Cannonier will hold up well in the 4th and 5th so I guess I'll look for Gastelum DEC and maybe SUB/TKO or RD4/5 lines if the they are high enough. The line is coming down on Cannonier which means waiting a bit to play him straight, but can he finish Gastelum with strikes? Gastelum was dropped by Adesanya so his chin isn't perfect, but he recovers well and should be able to take a lot of shots until Cannonier slows down. I'm guessing on Cannonier's cardio, but it doesn't seem like it will hold up well especially not against Gastelum's.

Pantoja should be able to handle Royval, but there's always a chance of a fluky finish. Maybe Royval ITD as a hedge.

Forget the rest of these fights. I'm sure the actual experts will get some good value from them, but I'll wait for the next card.

 

[Noel Wards]

@Main_Card_MMA

I think Cannonier's cardio is good. Gastelum is the one that can't run 5 miles without puking. He gave a good performance with Whittaker after breaking his arm early.

If Cannonier can stuff Whittaker's takedowns I think he should be fine with Gastelums. Whittaker outwrestled Gastelum more comfortably. His BJJ defense looked solid there too.

I like Cannonier defense, some decent fundamentals and has good power. There's a chance he gets countered by Gastelum.

His footwork isn't great, however, if he chops at that leg like the Whittaker match Gastelum is slowing down not speeding up.

 

[Kazda1]

Sherman is not a good fighter. He's making bums on Island Fights look decent. His defence is terrible, and Parker Porter despite his horrendous physique does have pretty good boxing for heavyweight, is voluminous, and has decent cardio to back it up. I think Porter is the side in this matchup. Sherman too much of a bum to be betting at -200

Fair points. I think maybe recency bias got the best of me. Sherman was rather fragile and I have to take into account Daukaus is a way better boxer than I initially expected. I remember picking Porter in that fight for the reason that his boxing wasn't bad either. Sherman has made improvements but again, probably looks better against terrible competition.

 

[Noel Wards]

@Kazda1

On Chris Daukaus:
"He has good boxing throwing the jab and always throwing combinations. He’ll do a lot of touch-touch-bang setting up his power strikes nicely."

I think that's a fair assessment of him.

 

[Main_Card_MMA]

@Main_Card_MMA

I think Cannonier's cardio is good. Gastelum is the one that can't run 5 miles without puking. He gave a good performance with Whittaker after breaking his arm early.

If Cannonier can stuff Whittaker's takedowns I think he should be fine with Gastelums. Whittaker outwrestled Gastelum more comfortably. His BJJ defense looked solid there too.

I like Cannonier defense, some decent fundamentals and has good power. There's a chance he gets countered by Gastelum.

His footwork isn't great, however, if he chopps at that leg like the Whittaker match Gastelum is slowing down not speeding up.

Yeah, but will the clinching tire out Cannonier if Gastelum is trying 3+ tds a round? Whittaker got it down in the 3rd, right? Even after taking 20+ leg kicks in the first 2 and not trying many tds? Gastelum had a pretty good showing against Heinisch thanks to his tds and he has some power in his hands like you said, but I won't pretend Gastelum is as good as Whittaker when it comes to footwork. He'll probably eat a lot more leg kicks unless he grapples often.

The leg kicks will make a big difference, very good point, so if Gastelum slows down enough, will he be a sitting duck for power shots? Will Cannonier gas himself out going for a finish against a guy with a good chin? I dunno. My first thought was Cannonier for sure, but now I'm questioning it a bit. Gastelum doesn't seem as motivated as before and they're on different career trajectories, but I'll wait a bit to see how low the Cannonier line gets. @TrueAscension is on Cannonier so I'm probably wrong to doubt, but I can't shake this feeling that if his cardio fails he'll wind up in a close split dec with MMA judging. Might just bet Cannonier straight with a Gastelum DEC hedge.

I'm kinda lazy with tape, usually only 2-4 fights where I look for relevant stuff instead of going deep on a fighter, and don't like betting on guys who don't have at least 4 UFC fights, but both of these guys have plenty of evidence for what they're likely to bring. The early bettors are on Gastelum, but they were on Sakai as well.

EDIT: I'll look into the over, too. If it's 2.5 or 3.5 at a decent price then it might be an ok play. The books I use don't offer multiple over/unders.

 

[Noel Wards]

@Main_Card_MMA

I re-watched the highlights quickly. No Cannonier Stuffed both takedowns Whittaker did. One because he popped back up and broke Whittaker grip with never having touching his hands to the ground or something so I don't believe it's counted.

Whittaker caught him with his Jab-Head kick combo and that is how they were on the ground. Cannonier showed solid grappling defense there. Anyway, to your points. I don't know about the clinch, is Gastelum particularly technical there?

Its usually bad to be in there with the taller stronger guy in the clinch. With frequent TDs from Gastelum, I believe Cannonier is good enough to stop them. He caught Jack Hermansson coming in for a takedown, plus going for a TD and not getting it is more tiring then defending them.

This will work for Gastelum if he has a significantly better gas, which I can't think for a reason why i would give him that. Has Gastelum showed a real good gas tank? I may be blanking. Whittaker was definitely reacting to the leg kicks, however, this is the same dude who beat Prime Romero with a totally busted leg.

I can't see into Cannonier's gameplan. However, he kicked very heavily with both Silva & Whittaker. I think it is one of his staples. He may finish him, the kicks are bankable strikes that score well and delodge some movement & power from a faster opponent.

Cannonier seems slower than Gastelum, thats definitely a point in Gastelum side. Probably better footwork too.

 

[Main_Card_MMA]

@Main_Card_MMA

I re-watched the highlights quickly. No Cannonier Stuffed both takedowns Whittaker did. One because he popped back up and broke Whittaker grip with never having touching his hands to the ground or something so I don't believe it's counted.

Whittaker caught him with his Jab-Head kick combo and that is how they were on the ground. Cannonier showed solid grappling defense there. Anyway, to your points. I don't know about the clinch, is Gastelum particularly technical there?

Its usually bad to be in there with the taller stronger guy in the clinch. With frequent TDs from Gastelum, I believe Cannonier is good enough to stop them. He caught Jack Hermansson coming in for a takedown, plus going for a TD and not getting it is more tiring then defending them.

This will work for Gastelum if he has a significantly better gas, which I can't think for a reason why i would give him that. Has Gastelum showed a real good gas tank? I may be blanking. Whittaker was definitely reacting to the leg kicks, however, this is the same dude who beat Prime Romero with a totally busted leg.

I can't see into Cannonier's gameplan. However, he kicked very heavily with both Silva & Whittaker. I think it is one of his staples. He may finish him, the kicks are bankable strikes that score well and delodge some movement & power from a faster opponent.

Cannonier seems slower than Gastelum, thats definitely a point in Gastelum side. Probably better footwork too.

Good to know and great points. I wasn't concerned with the technical clinch work, just the effort it will take to deal with a lot of td attempts that wind up with Cannonier carrying a bit of Gastelum's weight for long enough to slow him down. I haven't seen Cannonier do a ton of defensive grappling and the Whittaker fight played out mostly on the feet. I think the Branch fight had some. I'll probably play Cannonier and avoid most of the other bets, but only after I watch some tape and the line settles.

 

[Noel Wards]

@Main_Card_MMA
Cannonier has showed some real good TDD. Could he defend 5 each round? Maybe, I think he could.

Again he's a dangerous guy to try to take too many times. He caught Jack once and that was lights out.

He stopped sub attempts from Whittaker whose a BJJ back belt. While rocked.

Gastelum went wrestler when Ian was having some real success on the feet. If it goes the same way Cannonier can absolutely stop it.

Gastelum is the faster guy with better footwork. He may be able to counter Jared at some point idk.

 

[Main_Card_MMA]

@Main_Card_MMA
Cannonier has showed some real good TDD. Could he defend 5 each round? Maybe, I think he could.

Again he's a dangerous guy to try to take too many times. He caught Jack once and that was lights out.

He stopped sub attempts from Whittaker whose a BJJ back belt. While rocked.

Gastelum went wrestler when Ian was having some real success on the feet. If it goes the same way Cannonier can absolutely stop it.

Gastelum is the faster guy with better footwork. He may be able to counter Jared at some point idk.

I'll have to look into Cannonier's chin and some of Gastelum's knockouts, but Gastelum hasn't finished anyone since Nov 2017. The Reyes fight looks bad, but that was at 205. Cannonier survived Cutelaba and Blachowicz before Jan's boxing improved, but he was taken down a few times albeit by bigger guys than Gastelum. Gastelum handled Heinisch who is bigger, but not Cannonier big. I'll have to look into which Gastelum fights had someone with speed like Cannonier and how it played out on the feet. Gastelum faced Hall, Hendricks, Ellenberger and Belfort who I think was on TRT and he survived, but this isn't the same Gastelum especially after the Adesanya fight. I'll check out Cannonier/Whittaker to see the defensive grappling when he was rocked, but Whittaker isn't a submission machine. Does Gastelum have good leg kick catch tds and would they work against Cannonier? If he's doing well on the feet, will he even use his wrestling?

 

[Noel Wards]

@Main_Card_MMA

My point exactly. He only took down Ian because he wasn't winning the striking exchanges. Fair play to him.

I don't believe he has any catch kick TD's. At least never showed any to my knowledge. No, Whittaker isn't a submission machine. But he's a good black belt. And he was rocked.

Gastelum is 2-4 in his last 6. His boxing isn't the best in the division like it used to be. He's pretty much is re-cylcing the 1-2's again and again.

He hasn't finished anyone since 2017.

 

[Thesnake101]

@Main_Card_MMA

I re-watched the highlights quickly. No Cannonier Stuffed both takedowns Whittaker did. One because he popped back up and broke Whittaker grip with never having touching his hands to the ground or something so I don't believe it's counted.

Whittaker caught him with his Jab-Head kick combo and that is how they were on the ground. Cannonier showed solid grappling defense there. Anyway, to your points. I don't know about the clinch, is Gastelum particularly technical there?

Its usually bad to be in there with the taller stronger guy in the clinch. With frequent TDs from Gastelum, I believe Cannonier is good enough to stop them. He caught Jack Hermansson coming in for a takedown, plus going for a TD and not getting it is more tiring then defending them.

This will work for Gastelum if he has a significantly better gas, which I can't think for a reason why i would give him that. Has Gastelum showed a real good gas tank? I may be blanking. Whittaker was definitely reacting to the leg kicks, however, this is the same dude who beat Prime Romero with a totally busted leg.

I can't see into Cannonier's gameplan. However, he kicked very heavily with both Silva & Whittaker. I think it is one of his staples. He may finish him, the kicks are bankable strikes that score well and delodge some movement & power from a faster opponent.

Cannonier seems slower than Gastelum, thats definitely a point in Gastelum side. Probably better footwork too.

Gastelum did show good cardio against Magny in Mexico, same when he rallied late against Kennedy.

 

[Noel Wards]

Gastelum did show good cardio against Magny in Mexico, same when he rallied late against Kennedy.

Fair enough. 2015 & 2016 matches. How would you rate Cannonier's cardio Mr Snake?