UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs Gastelum - Discussion Thread

Noel Wards said:
Fair enough. 2015 & 2016 matches. How would you rate Cannonier's cardio Mr Snake?
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It's not bad either, I can't say I've ever seen him gas real badly. Closest he's come to that was when Glover ragdolled him, but he still acquitted himself quite decently compared to other LHWs who get topped by Teixeira.

I don't think either guy has a clear advantage there if I'm honest. Jared lacks 5 round experience, but the few times he's reached deepish waters in his fights give promising returns, and the only time we've seen Gastelum get blown out the water late was against Adesanya, and I think that's perfectly reasonable given how that fight went.

Against Whittaker he was still trying to take his head off late, the fight with Till never got out of second gear so we can't really look at it for anything significant, and while he did make things closer than he should have against an exhausted, old Jacare, he was still the fresher of the two in the third.
 
Thesnake101 said:
It's not bad either, I can't say I've ever seen him gas real badly. Closest he's come to that was when Glover ragdolled him, but he still acquitted himself quite decently compared to other LHWs who get topped by Teixeira.

I don't think either guy has a clear advantage there if I'm honest. Jared lacks 5 round experience, but the few times he's reached deepish waters in his fights give promising returns, and the only time we've seen Gastelum get blown out the water late was against Adesanya, and I think that's perfectly reasonable given how that fight went.

Against Whittaker he was still trying to take his head off late, the fight with Till never got out of second gear so we can't really look at it for anything significant, and while he did make things closer than he should have against an exhausted, old Jacare, he was still the fresher of the two in the third.
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Mr Snake do you feel Gastelum's speed advantage & better footwork might make the difference?
 
Main_Card_MMA said:
Yeah, but will the clinching tire out Cannonier if Gastelum is trying 3+ tds a round? Whittaker got it down in the 3rd, right? Even after taking 20+ leg kicks in the first 2 and not trying many tds? Gastelum had a pretty good showing against Heinisch thanks to his tds and he has some power in his hands like you said, but I won't pretend Gastelum is as good as Whittaker when it comes to footwork. He'll probably eat a lot more leg kicks unless he grapples often.

The leg kicks will make a big difference, very good point, so if Gastelum slows down enough, will he be a sitting duck for power shots? Will Cannonier gas himself out going for a finish against a guy with a good chin? I dunno. My first thought was Cannonier for sure, but now I'm questioning it a bit. Gastelum doesn't seem as motivated as before and they're on different career trajectories, but I'll wait a bit to see how low the Cannonier line gets. @TrueAscension is on Cannonier so I'm probably wrong to doubt, but I can't shake this feeling that if his cardio fails he'll wind up in a close split dec with MMA judging. Might just bet Cannonier straight with a Gastelum DEC hedge.

I'm kinda lazy with tape, usually only 2-4 fights where I look for relevant stuff instead of going deep on a fighter, and don't like betting on guys who don't have at least 4 UFC fights, but both of these guys have plenty of evidence for what they're likely to bring. The early bettors are on Gastelum, but they were on Sakai as well.

EDIT: I'll look into the over, too. If it's 2.5 or 3.5 at a decent price then it might be an ok play. The books I use don't offer multiple over/unders.
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i just don’t think Gastelum is a very good fighter tbh.
 
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Noel Wards said:
@Main_Card_MMA

I think Cannonier's cardio is good. Gastelum is the one that can't run 5 miles without puking. He gave a good performance with Whittaker after breaking his arm early.

If Cannonier can stuff Whittaker's takedowns I think he should be fine with Gastelums. Whittaker outwrestled Gastelum more comfortably. His BJJ defense looked solid there too.

I like Cannonier defense, some decent fundamentals and has good power. There's a chance he gets countered by Gastelum.

His footwork isn't great, however, if he chops at that leg like the Whittaker match Gastelum is slowing down not speeding up.
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Comparing their performance vs whitaker, jared did not get hit nearly as much as Kelvin did.His massive frame works for him in the wrestling. My biggest concern for Jared his low head strikes numbers. Kelvin seems to land more head strikes. While jared generates the more power when he lands.
 
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Doggo_Stat_Collector said:
Comparing their performance vs whitaker, jared did not get hit nearly as much as Kelvin did. And the knockdown is worth something. His massive frame works for him in the wrestling. My biggest concern for Jared his low head strikes numbers. Kelvin seems to land more head strikes. While jared generates the more power when he lands.
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Yeh his striking defense is sitting at 64%. Gastelum has lost to worse fighters in his recent run.
 
MrShady said:
That's what I'm seeing. If anything I feel he has regressed while Cannonier has improved since his middleweight introduction.
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To play devil's advocate. We never seen Jared go 5 rounds. Kelvin has 3 five rounders. Jared started to slow down in the third round vs Robert. Kelvin can win it in the later rounds. Score few takedowns , remain fresh all the way to the fifth round. Jared's gas tank is the biggest con he has and the lack of main event fights. Might end up sprinkling some on Kelvin for this reason. He has durability too so he can with stand his shots.
 
Noel Wards said:
Mr Snake do you feel Gastelum's speed advantage & better footwork might make the difference?
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For that one I'll have to refresh my memory and look at some tape of the two, will get back to you on that once I do. Most likely on fight week since I'll focus myself on PFL and Bellator this week.
 
Is Gastelum good? Serious question. I used to think so, but if you take away his war with Adesanya, what's the last time he looked good?

I like Royval. I think I might be buying low on him. I would cap his fight closer to a pick 'em.

Not sure what else I like on this card....kinda low key for me.
 
The problem with Kelvin is that there IS a very good fighter in there somewhere and you never know when it will come out. Maybe he has regressed to where he just sucks now, but you never know. Add that to Cannonier's age, injury layoff, questionable cardio/zero 5 round experience.. it's a pass from me, dawg.

Good luck to the bettors tho.
 
I think that Gastelum has regressed since coming to middleweight. His boxing used to be crispest in the division.

Now he just spams 1-2's and everyone seems to get the better of him on the feet these days.

He's been saying this is the fight is to show his championship potential. So you might think he'll pull out all the stops for this one.

However, what stopped him from doing that before losing 4 in his 6. Fight age is more important than real age, Cannonier has had 18 to Gastelum's 24.
 
Mark Madsen betters - apparently the reason he hasn't fought in while amongst other things is his jaw broke and didn't heal correctly.

Makes me a bit nervous betting on him. He showed a good chin getting punched with the broken jaw tho.
 
Noel Wards said:
Mark Madsen betters - apparently the reason he hasn't fought in while amongst other things is his jaw broke and didn't heal correctly.

Makes me a bit nervous betting on him. He showed a good chin getting punched with the broken jaw tho.
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Problem is we’ve literally seen Clay Guida crush Rafael Dos Anjos jaw lol.
 
Don't overthink this, Izzy took Kelvin's soul.

Kelvin to this day still gets respect from bookies for going 5 and holding his own against Izzy.

Kelvin reached the pinnacle of the sport, only to fall short. That's got to be so disheartening.

He hasn't looked the same since. And his win streak leading up to the Izzy fight consisted of older vets(Bisping/Vitor off TRT/Kennedy).

Cannonier has been on an upward trajectory, and was actually the favorite going into the Whittaker fight.

He broke his arm early, continued to fight, and still managed to drop Rob at one point.

He has a cardio and power advantage. Kelvin, in his prime, was faster. Still probably is now by a slim margin, but it won't matter.

They're both durable though, so the over/Cannonier ML is the play here.
 
There is value hidden all over this card, just going to be a slog to find it.

After a weeks break and coming back to the Apex with a 15 fight card that lacks name value I have to suspect the UFC have planned for violence.

ITD's may be the plays here
 
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