2c on this card:
Souza/Markos: Dog or pass here. Souza is always a fade for me. Randas got some things going for her and she has been facing absolute killers. She's got the cardio, durability, and aggression advantage. Randa does make bonehead mistakes when she gets a bit over aggressive, not just in her last fight either. Following Dern to the ground, having good takedown defence until she gets mad and the opponent easily level changes under her. Her boxing is a bit underrated. Souza has a nice body and leg kick. She has bad optics, backs up against the cage, looks like she hates pressure and being hit. Not sure if there is much value left and could be slopy but yea.
Molina/Lacerda: I like both of these guys, a shame there is not more tape on Lacerda. In his more recent fights I was impressed with his dynamic striking and kicks. Throws wheel kicks like nothing and seems very athletic. Has a Brown Belt in Jits and aggressive GNP. I can't play Molina at these odds because he starts very slow and im not sure about his takedown defence. Just 2 fights ago, Porter on the regionals had him on the ground all first round and had his back too. Molina most likley wins this if it goes long, but who knows, maybe Lacerda can do it for all 3. He seems like a good talent that hasn't been tested yet and Molinas competition level is not amazing either. Might sprinkle the under here at plus money covering early or late finish if Lacerda slows down and Molina keeps piling on the pressure.
Herbert/Worthy: Herbert should spark Worthy early. Paper chin V some of the quickest hands in the division. Herbert has 2 losses in the UFC but he was lighting up both opponents on the feet. Worthy can also crack and Herbert is also chinny, so the unders are safe plays. Keeping it simple.
Staropoli/Pickett: Taped this fight last week, odds are insane. Low level fight, not sure how anyone can play Stapololi at those odds with the massive hole in his defensive wrestling. Pickett also has an 8.5' reach advantage and is a big MW who will use his wrestling occasionally. I don't know if I can hit him because his game is so average, never lets his hands go while Staopoli is opposite with constant volume and kicks. Then again when he does let them go he has power. Might sprinkle a tiny bit just so I'm not regretting it since Pickett has the size, reach and wrestling advantage. Otherwise, the overs have potential, specially if Pickett wrestles.
Ricci/Oliveira: Ricci should close the distance and smother her on the ground. She's small but solid, has a bit of pop on her punches too when she blitzes in. Nothing I really like about Olivera, she's a can crusher. Ricci has good control on top, a nice armbar she goes for from mount. Otherwise, she is constantly GNPing her opponents while on top. Ricci finish has potential if you dont want to lay the wood on women's MMA.
Nick/Ike: This is like father V son lol. Two stiff and hittable brawlers with good chins. Nick seems like the more natural LHW, and has some grappling but his takedowns suck. He zombied Camur to a split last fight, if he comes out with that game plan against Ike it's anyone's fight. Ike is like the opposite of a zombie, you can kill him anywhere but the head. Gets hurt to the body and legs constantly but has a brick head skull. I dont like anything here other than a lil sprinkle on Ike as odds are probably wide on such a low-level fight.
JessyJ/Edwards: Dog or pass here too. I remember liking Jessy because she was very technical and strong, unlike other female fighters. Taping her against didn't make her live up to those expectations. Didn't realize how much stronger Pennie looked against her in their fight. Also, that was a clear 30-27 where Jessy got schooled in the standup. Edwards is a natural BW who I bet in debut as a dog then faded hard against Rosa. She has average TDD that Jessy could potentially exploit but she has some funky scrambles and an active guard. Rosa made her look like she was a turtle off her back but even she got hit with that flexible reversal from the bottom mount. Edwards has hit on regionals as well. She showed heart in that fight and even busted the inside of Rosas mouth with a nice combination. Jessy will have to neutralize her for 3 rounds but I think Edwards is more dynamic and dangerous wherever the fight goes, as long as she stays aggressive and doesn't do too much stupid shit.
Costa/Vettori: Man this is my dream fight. Two blockheads meeting in the middle with the same game plan. Tough fight to bet on, Costa is not getting the respect he deserves because he got cucked by Isreal. Vettori is going to give him the fight he wants, he's a human punching bag but is super durable and doesn't stop coming forward. He doesn't have the power or athletism of someone like Romero to constantly hurt Costa. Vettori does have improved boxing though il give him that, nice straight left and pull counters. Costa will be working that body both with hooks and his body kick which he rips at 100%. That could even out the cardio a bit, even though I don't think Vettori has the clear-cut cardio advantage. Costas output and pressure is insane, he throws everything at 100%. Anyone that does that with that much muscle on his frame has great cardio. At these odds, it's a pass. Was eyeing the over but doesn't sit well with me even though I think both will come out with a bit of respect early. I am just going to sit back and enjoy this one, and potentially live bet after a few rounds.