UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori

I can't believe Gregory Rodrigues is one year older than me

I'm no spring chicken but he looks like he could be my Dad

He impressed me against Dusko anyway I think I'll be playing him against Park
 
lyndon955 said:
I can't believe Gregory Rodrigues is one year older than me

I'm no spring chicken but he looks like he could be my Dad

He impressed me against Dusko anyway I think I'll be playing him against Park
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Same for me, got him at +100. He's got a bit of size and reach on Park, his striking has looked solid but he originally comes from a BJJ background so he has skill there too. Plus he's training at Sanford with Hooft.

The loss to Jordan Williams of all people is a little worrying, but I like the way he didn't let himself get trapped against the cage and blitzed again when he was fighting Todorovic, so hopefully he's learning.
 
Vir_Ars said:
yeah, people saying that costa got bad cardio must be blind... Dude fight like an absolute killer with power and volume.
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If he does that then he will be gassed in round 3 like he was vs. Romero.
 
We have seen Vettori go 5 hard rounds several times now. Costa has only been 3 rounds recently once and he was seen in the 3rd round trying to take a break because he was so exhausted.

Vettori is tough as fuck and I don't think he's going to just go away from Costa's pressure. Even if he loses the first 2 rounds I think he comes on in the 3rd and 4th rounds and possibly wins via stoppage.

Great fight. I'm taking Vettori.
 
BigSteve said:
2c on this card:

Souza/Markos: Dog or pass here. Souza is always a fade for me. Randas got some things going for her and she has been facing absolute killers. She's got the cardio, durability, and aggression advantage. Randa does make bonehead mistakes when she gets a bit over aggressive, not just in her last fight either. Following Dern to the ground, having good takedown defence until she gets mad and the opponent easily level changes under her. Her boxing is a bit underrated. Souza has a nice body and leg kick. She has bad optics, backs up against the cage, looks like she hates pressure and being hit. Not sure if there is much value left and could be slopy but yea.

Molina/Lacerda: I like both of these guys, a shame there is not more tape on Lacerda. In his more recent fights I was impressed with his dynamic striking and kicks. Throws wheel kicks like nothing and seems very athletic. Has a Brown Belt in Jits and aggressive GNP. I can't play Molina at these odds because he starts very slow and im not sure about his takedown defence. Just 2 fights ago, Porter on the regionals had him on the ground all first round and had his back too. Molina most likley wins this if it goes long, but who knows, maybe Lacerda can do it for all 3. He seems like a good talent that hasn't been tested yet and Molinas competition level is not amazing either. Might sprinkle the under here at plus money covering early or late finish if Lacerda slows down and Molina keeps piling on the pressure.

Herbert/Worthy: Herbert should spark Worthy early. Paper chin V some of the quickest hands in the division. Herbert has 2 losses in the UFC but he was lighting up both opponents on the feet. Worthy can also crack and Herbert is also chinny, so the unders are safe plays. Keeping it simple.

Staropoli/Pickett: Taped this fight last week, odds are insane. Low level fight, not sure how anyone can play Stapololi at those odds with the massive hole in his defensive wrestling. Pickett also has an 8.5' reach advantage and is a big MW who will use his wrestling occasionally. I don't know if I can hit him because his game is so average, never lets his hands go while Staopoli is opposite with constant volume and kicks. Then again when he does let them go he has power. Might sprinkle a tiny bit just so I'm not regretting it since Pickett has the size, reach and wrestling advantage. Otherwise, the overs have potential, specially if Pickett wrestles.

Ricci/Oliveira: Ricci should close the distance and smother her on the ground. She's small but solid, has a bit of pop on her punches too when she blitzes in. Nothing I really like about Olivera, she's a can crusher. Ricci has good control on top, a nice armbar she goes for from mount. Otherwise, she is constantly GNPing her opponents while on top. Ricci finish has potential if you dont want to lay the wood on women's MMA.

Nick/Ike: This is like father V son lol. Two stiff and hittable brawlers with good chins. Nick seems like the more natural LHW, and has some grappling but his takedowns suck. He zombied Camur to a split last fight, if he comes out with that game plan against Ike it's anyone's fight. Ike is like the opposite of a zombie, you can kill him anywhere but the head. Gets hurt to the body and legs constantly but has a brick head skull. I dont like anything here other than a lil sprinkle on Ike as odds are probably wide on such a low-level fight.

JessyJ/Edwards: Dog or pass here too. I remember liking Jessy because she was very technical and strong, unlike other female fighters. Taping her against didn't make her live up to those expectations. Didn't realize how much stronger Pennie looked against her in their fight. Also, that was a clear 30-27 where Jessy got schooled in the standup. Edwards is a natural BW who I bet in debut as a dog then faded hard against Rosa. She has average TDD that Jessy could potentially exploit but she has some funky scrambles and an active guard. Rosa made her look like she was a turtle off her back but even she got hit with that flexible reversal from the bottom mount. Edwards has hit on regionals as well. She showed heart in that fight and even busted the inside of Rosas mouth with a nice combination. Jessy will have to neutralize her for 3 rounds but I think Edwards is more dynamic and dangerous wherever the fight goes, as long as she stays aggressive and doesn't do too much stupid shit.

Costa/Vettori: Man this is my dream fight. Two blockheads meeting in the middle with the same game plan. Tough fight to bet on, Costa is not getting the respect he deserves because he got cucked by Isreal. Vettori is going to give him the fight he wants, he's a human punching bag but is super durable and doesn't stop coming forward. He doesn't have the power or athletism of someone like Romero to constantly hurt Costa. Vettori does have improved boxing though il give him that, nice straight left and pull counters. Costa will be working that body both with hooks and his body kick which he rips at 100%. That could even out the cardio a bit, even though I don't think Vettori has the clear-cut cardio advantage. Costas output and pressure is insane, he throws everything at 100%. Anyone that does that with that much muscle on his frame has great cardio. At these odds, it's a pass. Was eyeing the over but doesn't sit well with me even though I think both will come out with a bit of respect early. I am just going to sit back and enjoy this one, and potentially live bet after a few rounds.
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Yeah, I might hit Randa if the odds get much longer. I don't see why she won't be able to execute the same gameplan that Brianna Van Buren did against Livinha.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
Yeah, I might hit Randa if the odds get much longer. I don't see why she won't be able to execute the same gameplan that Brianna Van Buren did against Livinha.
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Markos has -20 fight iq that's one reason why she wouldn't lol. It's very frustrating betting on stupid fighters, her dive into Dern's guard is a solid nomination for the darwin awards that year.
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
Markos has -20 fight iq that's one reason why she wouldn't lol. It's very frustrating betting on stupid fighters, her dive into Dern's guard is a solid nomination for the darwin awards that year.
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Pretty much. I'm thinking I might punt a little on Souza by sub depending on how that line looks. Randa seems to be done, so I suspect that she might either phone it in, or have a mental lapse that leads to an armbar or something.
 
BigSteve said:
2c on this card:

Souza/Markos: Dog or pass here. Souza is always a fade for me. Randas got some things going for her and she has been facing absolute killers. She's got the cardio, durability, and aggression advantage. Randa does make bonehead mistakes when she gets a bit over aggressive, not just in her last fight either. Following Dern to the ground, having good takedown defence until she gets mad and the opponent easily level changes under her. Her boxing is a bit underrated. Souza has a nice body and leg kick. She has bad optics, backs up against the cage, looks like she hates pressure and being hit. Not sure if there is much value left and could be slopy but yea.

Molina/Lacerda: I like both of these guys, a shame there is not more tape on Lacerda. In his more recent fights I was impressed with his dynamic striking and kicks. Throws wheel kicks like nothing and seems very athletic. Has a Brown Belt in Jits and aggressive GNP. I can't play Molina at these odds because he starts very slow and im not sure about his takedown defence. Just 2 fights ago, Porter on the regionals had him on the ground all first round and had his back too. Molina most likley wins this if it goes long, but who knows, maybe Lacerda can do it for all 3. He seems like a good talent that hasn't been tested yet and Molinas competition level is not amazing either. Might sprinkle the under here at plus money covering early or late finish if Lacerda slows down and Molina keeps piling on the pressure.

Herbert/Worthy: Herbert should spark Worthy early. Paper chin V some of the quickest hands in the division. Herbert has 2 losses in the UFC but he was lighting up both opponents on the feet. Worthy can also crack and Herbert is also chinny, so the unders are safe plays. Keeping it simple.

Staropoli/Pickett: Taped this fight last week, odds are insane. Low level fight, not sure how anyone can play Stapololi at those odds with the massive hole in his defensive wrestling. Pickett also has an 8.5' reach advantage and is a big MW who will use his wrestling occasionally. I don't know if I can hit him because his game is so average, never lets his hands go while Staopoli is opposite with constant volume and kicks. Then again when he does let them go he has power. Might sprinkle a tiny bit just so I'm not regretting it since Pickett has the size, reach and wrestling advantage. Otherwise, the overs have potential, specially if Pickett wrestles.

Ricci/Oliveira: Ricci should close the distance and smother her on the ground. She's small but solid, has a bit of pop on her punches too when she blitzes in. Nothing I really like about Olivera, she's a can crusher. Ricci has good control on top, a nice armbar she goes for from mount. Otherwise, she is constantly GNPing her opponents while on top. Ricci finish has potential if you dont want to lay the wood on women's MMA.

Nick/Ike: This is like father V son lol. Two stiff and hittable brawlers with good chins. Nick seems like the more natural LHW, and has some grappling but his takedowns suck. He zombied Camur to a split last fight, if he comes out with that game plan against Ike it's anyone's fight. Ike is like the opposite of a zombie, you can kill him anywhere but the head. Gets hurt to the body and legs constantly but has a brick head skull. I dont like anything here other than a lil sprinkle on Ike as odds are probably wide on such a low-level fight.

JessyJ/Edwards: Dog or pass here too. I remember liking Jessy because she was very technical and strong, unlike other female fighters. Taping her against didn't make her live up to those expectations. Didn't realize how much stronger Pennie looked against her in their fight. Also, that was a clear 30-27 where Jessy got schooled in the standup. Edwards is a natural BW who I bet in debut as a dog then faded hard against Rosa. She has average TDD that Jessy could potentially exploit but she has some funky scrambles and an active guard. Rosa made her look like she was a turtle off her back but even she got hit with that flexible reversal from the bottom mount. Edwards has hit on regionals as well. She showed heart in that fight and even busted the inside of Rosas mouth with a nice combination. Jessy will have to neutralize her for 3 rounds but I think Edwards is more dynamic and dangerous wherever the fight goes, as long as she stays aggressive and doesn't do too much stupid shit.

Costa/Vettori: Man this is my dream fight. Two blockheads meeting in the middle with the same game plan. Tough fight to bet on, Costa is not getting the respect he deserves because he got cucked by Isreal. Vettori is going to give him the fight he wants, he's a human punching bag but is super durable and doesn't stop coming forward. He doesn't have the power or athletism of someone like Romero to constantly hurt Costa. Vettori does have improved boxing though il give him that, nice straight left and pull counters. Costa will be working that body both with hooks and his body kick which he rips at 100%. That could even out the cardio a bit, even though I don't think Vettori has the clear-cut cardio advantage. Costas output and pressure is insane, he throws everything at 100%. Anyone that does that with that much muscle on his frame has great cardio. At these odds, it's a pass. Was eyeing the over but doesn't sit well with me even though I think both will come out with a bit of respect early. I am just going to sit back and enjoy this one, and potentially live bet after a few rounds.
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I think you're giving Edwards way too much credit here. Aside from those few punches she landed against Rosa she was completely dominated. Edwards TDD isn't even close to average, she doesn't really even attempt to sprawl and just accepts them. Also theres no shame in losing to Pannie, she is levels above Edwards as a striker so don't think that fight is too relevant for this matchup. Jessy Jess is giving up a little size but is far more skilled.
 
BigDramaShow26 said:
We have seen Vettori go 5 hard rounds several times now. Costa has only been 3 rounds recently once and he was seen in the 3rd round trying to take a break because he was so exhausted.

Vettori is tough as fuck and I don't think he's going to just go away from Costa's pressure. Even if he loses the first 2 rounds I think he comes on in the 3rd and 4th rounds and possibly wins via stoppage.

Great fight. I'm taking Vettori.
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Costa with all that mass, he cannot go a full 5 without gassing. Even with EPO.

I think marv can finish him
 
Screenshot_20211020-005157_Samsung Internet.jpg My plays so far. Some straight bets some 2-4 leg parlays.

Going to be on some props when available to me.

Curious if anyone has an opinion on the Grant fight?

Grants reach advantage and being a natural WW are what lean me to take the plus odds. Trinaldo has been rocked in both of his last two fights.
 
KingRyan said:
View attachment 885749 My plays so far. Some straight bets some 2-4 leg parlays.

Going to be on some props when available to me.

Curious if anyone has an opinion on the Grant fight?

Grants reach advantage and being a natural WW are what lean me to take the plus odds. Trinaldo has been rocked in both of his last two fights.
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Too much juice on Choi to have him in there vs a vet like Caceras imo. Yeah I'd pick Choi to win straight up, but -300? Bruce Leeroy is the kind of guy who can just make guys look bad. Fights more disciplined now too. Choi isn't a guy I'd trust enough to pay that kind of juice on vs a cagey guy like Alex.
 
mkess101 said:
Too much juice on Choi to have him in there vs a vet like Caceras imo. Yeah I'd pick Choi to win straight up, but -300? Bruce Leeroy is the kind of guy who can just make guys look bad. Fights more disciplined now too. Choi isn't a guy I'd trust enough to pay that kind of juice on vs a cagey guy like Alex.
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Leeroy Dec +400 and his ml +260 both value plays.

Highly doubt Choi ends up looking like -300
 
KingRyan said:
View attachment 885749 My plays so far. Some straight bets some 2-4 leg parlays.


Going to be on some props when available to me.

Curious if anyone has an opinion on the Grant fight?

Grants reach advantage and being a natural WW are what lean me to take the plus odds. Trinaldo has been rocked in both of his last two fights.
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tabatha ricci and greg Rodriguez are risky bets bro.
The iron turtle won’t be taken down easily, is way more durable and has decent jab and ground game.

maria oliveira has smashed just as many cans as ricci …ricci is literally a midget. the odds are ridiculous
 
I like Rodriguez.He looked good against Todorovic and Park barelly squazed passed Tefon who is slow as hell,Rodriguez is better on the feet.
Trinaldo is in my opininion a level above grant.Grant almost lost to a guy that's not UFC level in Sekulić,Trinaldo is a tough guy,hard to knockout,I think he'll easily outstrike Grant,probably win a decision.
Caceres odds are 3,50 that's definitely too much,seems like he's getting things together,the odds are too wide.
I'll play Staropoli despite him being pretty favorised by the oddsmaker,think it should be even lower,he's much higher volume and better striker then Picket who may have a grappling advantage but also has bad cardio,think Staropoli does a lot of damage throwing everything at him.
 
mkess101 said:
Too much juice on Choi to have him in there vs a vet like Caceras imo. Yeah I'd pick Choi to win straight up, but -300? Bruce Leeroy is the kind of guy who can just make guys look bad. Fights more disciplined now too. Choi isn't a guy I'd trust enough to pay that kind of juice on vs a cagey guy like Alex.
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One thing to note is that the only time Choi lost a fight on the feet he got sparked early, and he wound up avenging that same loss within the year. His other two losses came against guys who are leagues better than Caceres imo, at the very least when it comes to wrestling.

I think his range and power will let him negate most of what Alex does, and really, Springer, Croom, Hooper and Peterson are quite literally some of the most hittable guys at that weight, so I don't buy this "new and improved" Alex narrative.

-300 for Choi is definitely steep (I got him within the mid 200s), but I think it's relatively safe.
 
Like Lacerda as dog, this fight is 50 50. Im live in Rio de Janeiro and know him. Hes well rounded, good in all areas and killer instict.

Others picks: Herbert, Trinaldo, Rodrigues, Clark, Over 1.5 Nick/Ike.
Thoughts about my picks?
 
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Interested in what odds we'll get on Onama and Zviad, those are two good quality late replacements.
 
(said this in the boxing forum but again..) Been reading this forum awhile, and I enjoy the MMA and boxing insights from everyone. Finally joined a few days ago.

Of course, anything can happen... and possible weight issues aside, what's Costa's path to victory? KOing a guy who doesn't get KO'd? A decision where he'd clearly win 3/5 rounds + avoiding takedowns?

Wine excuses, worrying about plugs.. Vettori is no world beater, but I definitely think he's a Costa beater.
 
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