UFC Fight Night: Covington v Woodley

[StewDogg11]

Price will finish Donald Duck, dude should retire

Cowboy has never lost to someone on Price’s level. Only the best of the best. I’ll take Cowboy as a dog all day and night.

 

[careto]

And Chimaev has only taken/knocked out one good fighter other fighter he has taken out is a sketchy one. Knowingly he was already having losses with the UFC banner.

Granted, im basing my opinion based on the potential of Chimaev, rather than on anything he has proven in past fights. He has mostly fought unproven fighters or gimme fights but still, has shown great potential since before the UFC. I think he will finish GM3 in the second or third, at worst, ai think he will dominate to a decision.

 

[theTKDguy]

Parlay with colby, khamzat and laramie cause saftic said so. Very solid to me

Waiting for the fdgtd prop for cowboy v price. Someone getting finished there.

 

[loller90278]

if i was a betting man, i'd wager @Sadistics likes cerrone U1.5

 

[Sadistics]

if i was a betting man, i'd wager @Sadistics likes cerrone U1.5

Haha I kinda do, but I hate u1.5s, prob passing

 

[theTKDguy]

Haha I kinda do, but I hate u1.5s, prob passing

Which are your picks for this one bro? You know we are all waiting for it <45>

 

[Sadistics]

Which are your picks for this one bro? You know we are all waiting for it <45>

Gonna be a light card for me, main plays are Nam and Newson atm

 

[theTKDguy]

Gonna be a light card for me, main plays are Nam and Newson atm

What do you think about the odds shifting in that one? Costa is a legit threat in the first rd but does fade after that. Maybe the under? 1.5 is sketchy tho, agreed

 

[2020Tracked]

Gonna be a light card for me, main plays are Nam and Newson atm

I'm on Nam and Newson too, wouldn't play Nam at his current price though. Seeing a lot of people taking Costa but I just see him being wide open for counters and Newson appears to be very durable and should weather the early storm.

 

[Sadistics]

What do you think about the odds shifting in that one? Costa is a legit threat in the first rd but does fade after that. Maybe the under? 1.5 is sketchy tho, agreed

I do still think he's playable around -130, but LB may be the better angle.

I'm on Nam and Newson too, wouldn't play Nam at his current price though. Seeing a lot of people taking Costa but I just see him being wide open for counters and Newson appears to be very durable and should weather the early storm.

Exactly, looks to be crazy durable, if he can make it out of the first 7 mins it should be smooth sailing. The leg kicks should aid in breaking Costa down too. Newson may just KO him rd1

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

Newsom has that nasty KO his last time out IIRC. I usually favor smaller dudes at the lighter weight classes so I like his ML and KO line hopefully it’s good on MB and bovada when it drops.

also, Okamoto just tweeted this,
“Khamzat Chimaev at his first UFC press conference, interrupting Gerald Meerschaert, asking him why he's lost so many fights. Meerschaert says if Chimaev submits him he cave have his black belt. Chimaev says, 'When I submit you, you are done with this sport.”



confidence increase on the under 1.5 for Chimaev vs GM3

 

[benebox]

Cheers, just added 2u on Newton

Anyone like the Holland sub line +600?

 

[careto]

Newsom has that nasty KO his last time out IIRC. I usually favor smaller dudes at the lighter weight classes so I like his ML and KO line hopefully it’s good on MB and bovada when it drops.

also, Okamoto just tweeted this,
“Khamzat Chimaev at his first UFC press conference, interrupting Gerald Meerschaert, asking him why he's lost so many fights. Meerschaert says if Chimaev submits him he cave have his black belt. Chimaev says, 'When I submit you, you are done with this sport.”



confidence increase on the under 1.5 for Chimaev vs GM3

Chimaev is a badass but he is just so damn annoying, I really wish he was fighting Maia, Magny, or someone who is worth a damn.

 

[2bet]

Gerald is a likeable guy but Khamzat is fucking funny

 

[GoatArtemLobov]

There is good value on Dvorak at -125. He is a more complete fighter and will get the W. He needs to take the fight to the ground where he has a distinct advantage, otherwise it might go to a decision and risk the judges fumbling the call.

Yes, he most likely going to win by submission .

BTW he didnt have preparation camp, before his debut match. and was not able to train for +−3 months, injury ..... so i expect perfect performance cuz David is after 4 months preparation without any injury

The fight has potential to be FOTN if it stays standing but the path to victory is for Dvorak to take it to the ground and avoid taking damage. Im surprised Dvorak is not a bigger favorite here.

After watching tape on Dvorak, it doesn't stand out to me that he has the wrestling to take Espinosa down.
Therefore, we will see a kickboxing match IMO, in which I slightly favor Espinosa (both are very good but Espinosa looks a bit faster and that jab is a thing of beauty...)
Would have taken a shot at Espinosa when he was +140, but now at pick'em odds it's a pass.

 

[careto]

After watching tape on Dvorak, it doesn't stand out to me that he has the wrestling to take Espinosa down.
Therefore, we will see a kickboxing match IMO, in which I slightly favor Espinosa (both are very good but Espinosa looks a bit faster and that jab is a thing of beauty...)
Would have taken a shot at Espinosa when he was +140, but now at pick'em odds it's a pass.

I think Espinosa tends to fade and Dvorak has better cardio, but yes, I think Dvorak doesnt have great wrestling take down Espinosa.
If the fight does end up in the ground, then Dvorak does have a clear advantage over Espinosa but its a close fight overall.

 

[svmr_db]

Miguel Baeza vs Jeremiah Wells is off

 

[Hashish]

Just got done with my tape, which confirmed my instinct. Dern is undervalued against Markos. Before, I thought maybe Markos would give Dern some trouble on the feet. Now, I don't believe Dern has anything to fear from Markos on the feet. In fact, Dern is the better striker.

I'm sure most of you will scoff at that, but she looked MUCH better on the feet against Ribas than she had in any of her other fights. That was shortly after giving birth. She will undoubtedly look even better this time out with a full recovery and more time to improve.

On the other hand, Markos will look worse. She is 35, and you don't get quicker at that age. She was much slower than Ribas, but Dern was not much slower than Ribas. Ribas just has sharper boxing. Dern will have the speed and power edge on Markos on the feet.

Of course, if it goes to the mat, which it likely will because Markos can't resist it, it will probably be lights out quick. It's just good to know after watching film that Dern should handle Markos on the feet too.

Max bet on Dern for me.

 

[Vitor Apologist]

Just got done with my tape, which confirmed my instinct. Dern is undervalued against Markos. Before, I thought maybe Markos would give Dern some trouble on the feet. Now, I don't believe Dern has anything to fear from Markos on the feet. In fact, Dern is the better striker.

I'm sure most of you will scoff at that, but she looked MUCH better on the feet against Ribas than she had in any of her other fights. That was shortly after giving birth. She will undoubtedly look even better this time out with a full recovery and more time to improve.

On the other hand, Markos will look worse. She is 35, and you don't get quicker at that age. She was much slower than Ribas, but Dern was not much slower than Ribas. Ribas just has sharper boxing. Dern will have the speed and power edge on Markos on the feet.

Of course, if it goes to the mat, which it likely will because Markos can't resist it, it will probably be lights out quick. It's just good to know after watching film that Dern should handle Markos on the feet too.

Max bet on Dern for me.

Do you lean towards sub or decision? I don’t remember the last time I saw a Randa markos fight but what I know is that she’s a grappler herself and an unathletic one lol. 35 and she is going up against the best grappler she has ever faced. I do think that you are right with Dern being undervalued as this is grappler vs grappler. But there is a chance markos could win a split because Dern isn’t reliable enough to convincingly win rounds. There’s a good chance she gasses out within 1.5 rounds trying to force a submission against a strong grappler. Dern has definitely neglected the wrestling part of her game as seen in the Ribas fight where she was the one getting handled. Now Ribas is a beast, but it shows you Dern is just your typical WMMA fighter when it comes to non BJJ things.

Think the line is fine as it is. Dern in the -250 range is unreliable considering that she would struggle against Hannah cifers in a MMA fight where they can’t go to the ground.

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

Chimaev is a badass but he is just so damn annoying, I really wish he was fighting Maia, Magny, or someone who is worth a damn.

this is a middleweight fight.