I like both Covington points handicap* -5½ -140 1.714 and Covington UDEC 1.95.
I think the fight may be like the Lawler, I only see Woodley winning by a flash KO and Covingtons talk of KO first round and all that is just talk imo. He didn´t ko Usman despite hurting him, and the only stoppage with tko relatively recently was vs Griffin and that was without power and only because Griffin did absolutely nothing. I don´t expect Woodley to let that happen nor get subbed as he´s never been subbed before. I think Covington will fight smart and do what he do best, and Woodley will have chances but just stand and do what he do and get that paycheck.
I don´t understand the ML play here, points handicap should be fairly clear even if one judge gets it close and woodley somehow in the judges eyes can get a round We could see 49-46 49-49, and 48-47 or something. The points handicap seem too high.
I´d cap Colby UDEC at 70% and around 10% woodley finish and 20% colby finish. I just don´t see woodley with a decision we can´t put it at 0%, but its very low maybe max 5% or so I´d max give it - because if he is able to be so dominant something must be wrong with Colby and he may get finished.
People always talk about Colbys great cardio - I agree but he does get tired, he´s tired in round 4 and 5, so the finish later rounds I see as low even though round 4,5 and dec is also a way.
The points handicap for me is the best bet here - it feels fair to pay that price, and if he does win by decision it should be very dominant, and I do like to be covered just because of a new camp, and because he looked so much bigger than Woodley. This also seems a fight that you could hedge if you like, or wait after one round and see how this fight will go and then bet a dec prop for colby possibly.
One thing I´ve started to like is to use prebets as a help for livebet i.e like betting Hooker/Hill prebet, expect them to take the first rounds - then bet at great dog odds and switch sides but be covered. No loss in playing it smart. Anyway think I´ll go with 1u for the points handicap on Colby at 1.71. Available on 5dimes right now.