- Joined
- Oct 13, 2020
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- 35
Gonna break the fights down in segments, these are the early prelims with my picks in brackets
Ziam +111 vs [Mularkey -135]
Ziam is a great guy for the regional scene in that he can do everything passably but I do not see him succeeding at the UFC level. Firstly, he's very passive and wilts back when pressed without offering anything until it hits the cage. Against the cage he isn't terrible, he can dig underhooks, take dominant foot position, jack dudes up that drop but there's nothing stinging coming back to discourage pressing him. Secondly, even when he is allowed to do his thing and awkwardly jerk in open space, he looks rough. His head movement is wiiiiide, his footwork is really stiff and unnatural, he doesn't feint and worst of all, he doesn't know how to sit down on his strikes without overextending. His punches are either a looping shot that pulls him way forward of his center or are wild WorldStar haymakers. The last knock on him is his defense is a really rudimentary high guard with nothing else and it gets abandoned whenever he goes on offense, leaving him really open to sharp counters.
What he does have going for him is pretty excellent timing. When he throws knees, elbows, kicks, they're typically in the right window and look clean, especially his low kicks. He's also a willing grappler when being outstruck and these are decently times too. That said, they aren't pretty takedowns and his trip game is non-existent. I don't see him taking down or holding down anyone competent for anything more than a moment.
Mularkey is actually a fairly decent fighter that drew a really hard first fight in the UFC. It gave a pretty bad impression of what he's actually good at since he knew he was heavily outclassed on the feet. If you refer to his regional footage, he's a pretty sharp boxer that uses his shot as a change of pace. Mularkey moves more naturally and confidently and will almost certainly be the fighter looking to pressure here. He has a very sharp one-two as well as a solid sense of how to use boxing combinations between the body and head. Decent feints and head movement really round out a solid wrestle-boxer style. He utilizes leg kicks but he doesn't want to get into two much of a range kicking match with Ziam. His biggest knock is he abandons his defense when he's really feeling his striking and it can leave him open to getting cracked.
I see this fight really only going one way and that's Ziam getting bullied. His striking style leads him open to getting pressured and bopped by straight punches, of which Mularkey throws regularly. His movement is too poor and his head movement too wide to trade with a better boxer for any length of time. They both situationally grapple but Mularkey is just a cleaner, more powerful grappler and much more aggressive when he's in a dominant position. Ziam will have needed to make a pretty dramatic jump since his last fight or Mularkey would need to have been really changed after the beating Riddell laid on him for Ziam to have a shot in this one.
Said -420 vs [Streigel +316]
Said is here for the spinny shit. Big time. He's very smooth, natural and when he's not being pressured his footwork is clean. He can attack the body at all levels and pumps a low kick frequently. His strikes come off with pop, especially his exotic kicks. I haven't seen anything that would indicate he intends to wrestle. He can counter wrestle but nothing exceptional. Where it starts to fall apart is the nuts and bolts of his striking game. He does have a good jab but there isn't a lot of connective tissue holding the game-plan together. This gets really exposed late in the fight when he's tired and is just lazily throwing out his single strikes. It's hidden early on because of how fast his strikes fly and the volume he throws them at. Another issue is he seems way to comfortable throwing his kicks naked. Again, he gets away with it because they're really fast but that works a lot better against regional opponents than it does people that really gameplan for you. He also backs up in straight lines and his flashy game falls apart when he's really pressured until he collects himself.
There really isn't a lot out there on Streigel and he hasn't fought in 18 months, that said, homie is a diehard, committed wrestler and a monster athlete. His shot is very clean, timing is nice and he drives around and through well. He 100% is coming to wrestle from the bell in this fight. His striking is rough rough and Said will tear his shit up if he sits at range with him for any length of time. I don't think there's any question that he's going to wrestle though. I also think he's very likely to ground Said at least a few times.
I don't know if he's going to hold him down though, that's really the big question. Neither fighter has a great gas tank but I think Said's is better. It's gonna come down to who can enforce the gameplan here. If Streigel gasses Said out, he's gonna dominate him in the third and probably get away with two rounds. If he doesn't, I feel pretty confident he's getting finished here. Why I'm leaning towards Streigel is the value, the commitment to his gameplan and specifically the naked kicks and constant spins from Said that are begging for him to be taken down. That said, Said is a very justified favorite and easily could beat the fuck out of Streigel, I just don't see any value in a -420 in this particular matchup.
[Antigulov +273] vs Grishin -355
Antigulov cannot strike, his gas tank is bad, his IQ is worse and he doesn't have defense. He's about as glass cannon grappler as it gets and he looks worse with each fight. He is a really really good wrestler though. Operating mostly out of the high c and singles, his stuff is slick and works. You can also reasonably count on him to shoot. Not nearly as much as you can a guy like Streigel though, which takes a bit of value off. Grishin isn't Cutelaba however and if Antigulov does decide to bang with him it won't be an immediate ticket to the shadow realm. It would still be a bad idea but it's not a death sentence for him to mix it up.
Grishin is a nuts and bolts kickboxer. He throws powerful kicks, decent hands, doesn't really combo anything but hits with pop. He's really stiff and upright which won't help him against a dominant wrestler at all. He's still leagues better at striking than Antigulov and if he stuffs takedowns or Antigulov gasses, this'll also be a finish. His defensive wrestling isn't bad and he does work to his feet well, I just don't think it's the level of grappling he's gonna need to not get grounded in this matchup.
One thing I feel that's been overstated lately is how bad Antigulov's gastank is. His last 5 fights have ended in this first round and while I don't think his conditioning is great, I don't think it's accurate to say he's gassing that fast. Ion blasted him when he decided to bang, Michel caught him super early and he was doing exactly what he wanted to Craig before he tapped. I say this not because I think he's gonna go 3 with Grishin because I think he probably needs a finish, as much as I'm trying to say I don't think he's gonna fall apart 3 minutes into the fight. Grishin also being committed to working his way up and not being a sub guy should help Antigulov here as it'll let him be full offense and not worried about a ridiculous submission again. This is probably a finish either or way as a tired Antigulov doesn't stand a change on the feet against Grishin, regardless of how rote and flat his kickboxing appears. I'm gonna side with the grappler here because I think the value is there, but I can't fault anyone for playing Grishin by finish.
[Jun Yong Park -255] vs John Phillips +203
I'm not gonna waste my time writing a lot here. Phillips is gonna get taken down hella, maybe subbed and even on the feet he isn't knocking Park out without landing the perfect shot. I wouldn't bet by finish as Phillips is tough as hell and I don't know if Park's sub skills are dependable or if he'll go for something else. I mean, it'll probably still hit but it would suck to bet finish and just have John Phillips ironman your finish bet to a clear 30-27 loss.
Ziam +111 vs [Mularkey -135]
Ziam is a great guy for the regional scene in that he can do everything passably but I do not see him succeeding at the UFC level. Firstly, he's very passive and wilts back when pressed without offering anything until it hits the cage. Against the cage he isn't terrible, he can dig underhooks, take dominant foot position, jack dudes up that drop but there's nothing stinging coming back to discourage pressing him. Secondly, even when he is allowed to do his thing and awkwardly jerk in open space, he looks rough. His head movement is wiiiiide, his footwork is really stiff and unnatural, he doesn't feint and worst of all, he doesn't know how to sit down on his strikes without overextending. His punches are either a looping shot that pulls him way forward of his center or are wild WorldStar haymakers. The last knock on him is his defense is a really rudimentary high guard with nothing else and it gets abandoned whenever he goes on offense, leaving him really open to sharp counters.
What he does have going for him is pretty excellent timing. When he throws knees, elbows, kicks, they're typically in the right window and look clean, especially his low kicks. He's also a willing grappler when being outstruck and these are decently times too. That said, they aren't pretty takedowns and his trip game is non-existent. I don't see him taking down or holding down anyone competent for anything more than a moment.
Mularkey is actually a fairly decent fighter that drew a really hard first fight in the UFC. It gave a pretty bad impression of what he's actually good at since he knew he was heavily outclassed on the feet. If you refer to his regional footage, he's a pretty sharp boxer that uses his shot as a change of pace. Mularkey moves more naturally and confidently and will almost certainly be the fighter looking to pressure here. He has a very sharp one-two as well as a solid sense of how to use boxing combinations between the body and head. Decent feints and head movement really round out a solid wrestle-boxer style. He utilizes leg kicks but he doesn't want to get into two much of a range kicking match with Ziam. His biggest knock is he abandons his defense when he's really feeling his striking and it can leave him open to getting cracked.
I see this fight really only going one way and that's Ziam getting bullied. His striking style leads him open to getting pressured and bopped by straight punches, of which Mularkey throws regularly. His movement is too poor and his head movement too wide to trade with a better boxer for any length of time. They both situationally grapple but Mularkey is just a cleaner, more powerful grappler and much more aggressive when he's in a dominant position. Ziam will have needed to make a pretty dramatic jump since his last fight or Mularkey would need to have been really changed after the beating Riddell laid on him for Ziam to have a shot in this one.
Said -420 vs [Streigel +316]
Said is here for the spinny shit. Big time. He's very smooth, natural and when he's not being pressured his footwork is clean. He can attack the body at all levels and pumps a low kick frequently. His strikes come off with pop, especially his exotic kicks. I haven't seen anything that would indicate he intends to wrestle. He can counter wrestle but nothing exceptional. Where it starts to fall apart is the nuts and bolts of his striking game. He does have a good jab but there isn't a lot of connective tissue holding the game-plan together. This gets really exposed late in the fight when he's tired and is just lazily throwing out his single strikes. It's hidden early on because of how fast his strikes fly and the volume he throws them at. Another issue is he seems way to comfortable throwing his kicks naked. Again, he gets away with it because they're really fast but that works a lot better against regional opponents than it does people that really gameplan for you. He also backs up in straight lines and his flashy game falls apart when he's really pressured until he collects himself.
There really isn't a lot out there on Streigel and he hasn't fought in 18 months, that said, homie is a diehard, committed wrestler and a monster athlete. His shot is very clean, timing is nice and he drives around and through well. He 100% is coming to wrestle from the bell in this fight. His striking is rough rough and Said will tear his shit up if he sits at range with him for any length of time. I don't think there's any question that he's going to wrestle though. I also think he's very likely to ground Said at least a few times.
I don't know if he's going to hold him down though, that's really the big question. Neither fighter has a great gas tank but I think Said's is better. It's gonna come down to who can enforce the gameplan here. If Streigel gasses Said out, he's gonna dominate him in the third and probably get away with two rounds. If he doesn't, I feel pretty confident he's getting finished here. Why I'm leaning towards Streigel is the value, the commitment to his gameplan and specifically the naked kicks and constant spins from Said that are begging for him to be taken down. That said, Said is a very justified favorite and easily could beat the fuck out of Streigel, I just don't see any value in a -420 in this particular matchup.
[Antigulov +273] vs Grishin -355
Antigulov cannot strike, his gas tank is bad, his IQ is worse and he doesn't have defense. He's about as glass cannon grappler as it gets and he looks worse with each fight. He is a really really good wrestler though. Operating mostly out of the high c and singles, his stuff is slick and works. You can also reasonably count on him to shoot. Not nearly as much as you can a guy like Streigel though, which takes a bit of value off. Grishin isn't Cutelaba however and if Antigulov does decide to bang with him it won't be an immediate ticket to the shadow realm. It would still be a bad idea but it's not a death sentence for him to mix it up.
Grishin is a nuts and bolts kickboxer. He throws powerful kicks, decent hands, doesn't really combo anything but hits with pop. He's really stiff and upright which won't help him against a dominant wrestler at all. He's still leagues better at striking than Antigulov and if he stuffs takedowns or Antigulov gasses, this'll also be a finish. His defensive wrestling isn't bad and he does work to his feet well, I just don't think it's the level of grappling he's gonna need to not get grounded in this matchup.
One thing I feel that's been overstated lately is how bad Antigulov's gastank is. His last 5 fights have ended in this first round and while I don't think his conditioning is great, I don't think it's accurate to say he's gassing that fast. Ion blasted him when he decided to bang, Michel caught him super early and he was doing exactly what he wanted to Craig before he tapped. I say this not because I think he's gonna go 3 with Grishin because I think he probably needs a finish, as much as I'm trying to say I don't think he's gonna fall apart 3 minutes into the fight. Grishin also being committed to working his way up and not being a sub guy should help Antigulov here as it'll let him be full offense and not worried about a ridiculous submission again. This is probably a finish either or way as a tired Antigulov doesn't stand a change on the feet against Grishin, regardless of how rote and flat his kickboxing appears. I'm gonna side with the grappler here because I think the value is there, but I can't fault anyone for playing Grishin by finish.
[Jun Yong Park -255] vs John Phillips +203
I'm not gonna waste my time writing a lot here. Phillips is gonna get taken down hella, maybe subbed and even on the feet he isn't knocking Park out without landing the perfect shot. I wouldn't bet by finish as Phillips is tough as hell and I don't know if Park's sub skills are dependable or if he'll go for something else. I mean, it'll probably still hit but it would suck to bet finish and just have John Phillips ironman your finish bet to a clear 30-27 loss.
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