UFC FN: Max Holloway vs. Arnold Allen, April 15
- Thread starter DabanggData
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You're kinda right in the fact that the fight barely got past 5 minutes and Kattar was on legged. Any thernway of looking at it is Holloway put on an absolute clinic against Kattar, broke multiple records and beat him down in a way we've rarely ever seen in the Octagon.
If you're comparing those two fights you might be able to make an argument that Allen struggled less with Kattar than Holloway did,.but conversely Holloway was far far more impressive in his win over Kattar.
Allen has proven himself to be elite for sure. If he beats Max though, I don't think it's going to because Max's chin is dust. People have been saying in these topics he's taken too many shots/has too much mileage since the first Aldo fight. I don't think it's a case of betting against Max in the hope that his chin is past it - if you're going to bet against him it has to be because you're confident his opponent can win multiple rounds against him.
For me it's a case of not being able to bet Allen because I don't think he's quite at that level. Maybe he is, he's passed pretty much every test so far but the Kattar fight for me wasn't long enough to convince me.
Max on the other hand until his Volk and Dustin losses was probably top 2 active p4p. He probably still ranks in top 15 active p4p and I'd in the all time GOAT discussions - with his only losses at 145 in the last decade against what might be the 145 GOAT, it's difficult to say if he's on the downward or not. Until I see that against someone who is not a GOAT contender, I can't bet against him.
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The guy who can’t stop takedowns and is a turtle?
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Also fighting guys way way bigger than him to be fair. Plus Cutelabas gas tank...no Bueno. Can't say I'm dying to bet either guy in this one...
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meh, even in the little time Allen fought Kattar, he did a lot better at winning the exchanges. You can watch a side by side comparison to see that. Max literally stands in front of him and eats jabs with his face. I don't believe Alex got so much better, but Max decline more since his last fight.
There is no reason not to play Allen, he's a high level fighter with clean technique, he has some flaws, but he's a southpaw and has momentum. This was an easy quick blind bet for me. I didn't need to retape to see Allen as the value side. Same with Azamat.
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azamat is so low output !!! …. He’s always losing 2 rounds to none then scored a 3rd round knockout .
jacoby isn’t chinny ….
I’m betting jacoby the minute winner to win and not get knocked out by azamat the moment winner
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Reach advantage is gonna be huge for Jacoby too.
Personally I can't back the guy that was down 2 rounds against Tafon Nchukwi. Dustin's been too consistent so far in his return and, imo, should've gotten the nod against Khalil.
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I was on the Allen side as well but the more i looked in to it the more i like Max here.
I think Allen has not really been tested so it's hard to know how good he really is. Looking at his last 5 fights they look pretty good on paper but not to good in reality.
Melendez - Washed when they fought... little to no value imo.
Lentz - Can't remember this fight, so perhaps he steamrolled him, i don't know. But Lentz is not elite imo so even if he steamrolled him I don't hold this win too high.
Yusuff - His best win for sure, but I would say that he was actually losing this fight, but for a few good moments that won him the rounds. Still really solid win for sure. Yusuff is no joke, so good win.
Hooker - This was probably the worst version of Hooker we have even seen. Half the division beats this version of Hooker.
Katter - Very short fight. Little value.
So i'm not sure that I trust Allen vs a guy like Max who is only loosing to the very best guys in the world. I feel that a bet on Allen is like a bet on that Max is washed.... which he might be.
I don't think Max is washed and as the fight progress Max will take over more and more.
I think Allen has not really been tested so it's hard to know how good he really is. Looking at his last 5 fights they look pretty good on paper but not to good in reality.
Melendez - Washed when they fought... little to no value imo.
Lentz - Can't remember this fight, so perhaps he steamrolled him, i don't know. But Lentz is not elite imo so even if he steamrolled him I don't hold this win too high.
Yusuff - His best win for sure, but I would say that he was actually losing this fight, but for a few good moments that won him the rounds. Still really solid win for sure. Yusuff is no joke, so good win.
Hooker - This was probably the worst version of Hooker we have even seen. Half the division beats this version of Hooker.
Katter - Very short fight. Little value.
So i'm not sure that I trust Allen vs a guy like Max who is only loosing to the very best guys in the world. I feel that a bet on Allen is like a bet on that Max is washed.... which he might be.
I don't think Max is washed and as the fight progress Max will take over more and more.
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Jacoby is also big for the division and I feel like Azamat is kinda small for the division. I think Jacoby should win this by decision pretty comfortably. The only worry is that judges might not appreciate jabs and value a few big power punches more.
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Jacoby never really puts a stamp on his wins and that’s a problem. He was gifted a win against Maxin Grishin, was also dropped twice. also a draw with Cutalaba, Azamat is a Russian grappler and can force Jacoby to worry about the td. Yeah Azamat looked half ass against Tafon but is tafon capable of doing what Roundtree did? Winning a narrow split dec with Jacoby, id say yes. Jacoby isn’t bad but he isn’t consistent, he’s a guy that looks like a killer sometimes and then average some nights. Azamat has heavy hands too, i’m happy i got him at 170+ , don’t believe Jacoby should have been a -200 fav like that.
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Great points. Guys who refuse to press and leave no doubt on any round are a liability and I don't bet them. Jacoby is solid and is the type of guy I would normally be all over but he does just enough, and with the state of judging these days, you need to do more.
I think it's worth saying too that, for as kind-of mid as Boser is, he's only been knocked out once in dozens of HW fights against decent comp. Cutelaba is going to wear himself out. I think Boser's a solid pick.
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So many fights come down to cardio and Holloway thrives in 5 round fights. Allen has probably upped his cardio but he is completely untested in the 4th and 5th rounds. It's very unlikely that he finishes Holloway so you have to think, can he hang for 5 rounds? I seriously doubt it. I think he possibly takes 1 or 2 of the first 3 and then loses the last 2 clearly. If he totally gasses, Holloway will butcher him. I said it before the Chito/Cory fight, level of competition is everything in MMA. Allen's record is not impressive. You can't count the Kattar fight as it was one round and Kattar always starts slow. That one would've been interesting and told us a lot had it gone a few rounds. Outside of that, his best win is.. Sodiq Yusuff, and it wasn't impressive.
Lastly, I think Volk is just THAT good atm and Holloway had a bad night. I don't think he has massively declined.
Outside of hoping/assuming that Holloway is washed, I don't see how you can favor Allen.
Lastly, I think Volk is just THAT good atm and Holloway had a bad night. I don't think he has massively declined.
Outside of hoping/assuming that Holloway is washed, I don't see how you can favor Allen.
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Doesn’t make sense to play him prefight. He’s losing round 1 at a high clip and depending on the opponent to gas isn’t a good look for someone who’s only +115
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I'm not convinced he loses rd 1 here. Cutelaba really isn't some grappling ace. Choked out by Johnny Walker in rd 1 is a terrible look. And Ian was at 185 not too long ago, now 205. Boser an undersized HW moving down. So Tanner goes from being smaller than everyone to probably the bigger guy here.
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Not a bad idea. I'll add .1U(just in case there's a KO in round 1) pre fight and look to live bet after round 1.
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I don't really see what Azamat can show Dustin that he hasn't faced a thousand times on the feet, so I've no concerns about Azamat scoring a KO.
That automatically makes me lean towards Jacoby, who has fought bigger, stronger, more powerful guys and looked very solid.
Jacoby to take a decision, but I'll be watching the body work on both sides here as that could present a finish. Again, though, I'd lean Jacoby to finish first.
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going back and forth on the Allen/Max fight. I already have Allen in a rather large parlay with Zak and Gervonta Davis.
