UFC FOX 26 - RDA vs Lawler - Winnipeg

[Stunna77]

FWIW he mentioned having issues with his past gym/people around him, hence the move to Rofus.

 

[MidgardSerpent]

You're asking who benefits in a forum full of degen gamblers? Dude...

What arguments do you have for it being fixed and by whom? Just random bettors fixing a ufc fight? You think Ward, being pretty close to Conor, is just going to take some quick cash to take a fall? He's not that good a fighter to begin with, getting starched by an explosive fighter doesn't sound that outlandish a scenario to me. I don't follow your reasoning here at all.

 

[vkram]

You're asking who benefits in a forum full of degen gamblers? Dude...

There are much easier ways to fix a fight than getting knocked out by a slam KO, like losing a boring decision or giving up a submission. Also, there wasn't any weird betting activity around that fight IIRC.

 

[Soccer Steve]

What arguments do you have for it being fixed and by whom? Just random bettors fixing a ufc fight? You think Ward, being pretty close to Conor, is just going to take some quick cash to take a fall? I don't follow your reasoning here at all.

OK, busted! I do not think it was fixed. I was being facetious when I said "fixed, honestly". It was a very strange KO, I'll leave it at that. My point is I give it little weight when looking to pick the dog Bofando versus the light fav in a more experienced UFC vet.

 

[Yotsuya]

I think that if we see a finish from Di chirico, it will be late in the 2nd round or in the 3rd, and if we see it from Bamgbose, it will be in the 1st.
Bamgbose gasses, but Di Chirico hasn't looked like a finisher in the UFC so far, he couldn't even finish a gassed Mcllelan, who is a bad fighter with awful defense.

McLellan was surprisingly tough. R2 Bamgbose could be easier to finish than R3 McLellan actually. Also, we have not seen what progress Chirico has made past year, because he fell for Spicely's weird (?) triangle. Hard to say if a loss like that will make him more carefull or more eager to get a strong finish. But looks like Chiciro's ml has fallen (got it at 2.1), so over could be clearly better value now.

 

[MidgardSerpent]

OK, busted! I do not think it was fixed. I was being facetious when I said "fixed, honestly". It was a very strange KO, I'll leave it at that. My point is I give it little weight when looking to pick the dog Bofando versus the light fav in a more experienced UFC vet.

Fair enough, didn't plan to make a big deal out of it, but I thought it was a bit strange you mentioned that.

 

[vkram]

OK, busted! I do not think it was fixed. I was being facetious when I said "fixed, honestly". It was a very strange KO, I'll leave it at that. My point is I give it little weight when looking to pick the dog Bofando versus the light fav in a more experienced UFC vet.

I agree with you regarding the odds tbh, I was expecting Laprise to be a bigger favourite. Still a lot of unknowns about Bofando whilst Laprise is a solid fighter with good fundamentals. Although Bofando is the more athletic fighter of the two.

 

[Stunna77]

Bofando nearly impossible to cap IMO. Clearly a freak athlete with absurd power, but we haven't seen him in there with anyone of note. If I was going big on Laprise I would certainly hedge with Bofando KO.

 

[vkram]

Bofando nearly impossible to cap IMO. Clearly a freak athlete with absurd power, but we haven't seen him in there with anyone of note. If I was going big on Laprise I would certainly hedge with Bofando KO.

Do we know that he has absurd power though?

 

[rev0lver]

Do we know that he has absurd power though?

I mean anyone who throws kicks the way he does can knock anyone else out with them. He looks powerful otherwise, I don't doubt he could knock Laprise out. We just haven't seen him fight someone with Laprise's level of defense and striking technique.

 

[Yotsuya]

Oluwale bamgbose
-trained with sam alvey

Smart!

 

[t6p]

I wouldn't call Abel a confident pick for me but I'm def leaning to him more than others here. Makdessi hasn't looked good recently. He hasn't looked good in years, in fact. I think it could be a mental thing more than just the Cerrone beating

Crazy to play Abel at -200 IMO. Makessi's recent results aren't great but other than maybe his chin not being as good as it was pre broken jaw he's looked like pretty much the same fighter to me. I'm not putting too much stock into the Lando fight because it ended on such a low percentage strike.

On the flipside, when is the last time Abel actually looked good? Post USADA he's done the following:

1) Gotten choked out in 2 mins by Tibau, later overturned because Tibau popped
2) Looked to be tiring 3 mins into the Sims fight, when Sims inexplicably dove right into a guillotine and did a poor job defending it
3) Barely scraped by Rinaldi, who dominated round 2 but somehow managed to gas worse than Abel in the third
4) Took Vick down and held him there for a few mins in the first and proceeded to get dominated for the rest of the fight/finished

Makdessi is the far superior striker here. His TDD is very good and it's highly unlikely that Abel has the gas tank to wrestle for more than a round. Abel's best chance is by landing an early fight ending shot. I think the chances of that happening are fairly low. Good value on Makdessi at current prices, I think.

 

[ivanilich]

Glover + Lawler = +400
2u on that

 

[rev0lver]

Crazy to play Abel at -200 IMO. Makessi's recent results aren't great but other than maybe his chin not being as good as it was pre broken jaw he's looked like pretty much the same fighter to me. I'm not putting too much stock into the Lando fight because it ended on such a low percentage strike.

On the flipside, when is the last time Abel actually looked good? Post USADA he's done the following:

1) Gotten choked out in 2 mins by Tibau, later overturned because Tibau popped
2) Looked to be tiring 3 mins into the Sims fight, when Sims inexplicably dove right into a guillotine and did a poor job defending it
3) Barely scraped by Rinaldi, who dominated round 2 but somehow managed to gas worse than Abel in the third
4) Took Vick down and held him there for a few mins in the first and proceeded to get dominated for the rest of the fight/finished

Makdessi is the far superior striker here. His TDD is very good and it's highly unlikely that Abel has the gas tank to wrestle for more than a round. Abel's best chance is by landing an early fight ending shot. I think the chances of that happening are fairly low. Good value on Makdessi at current prices, I think.

Are we not factoring in though that Abel has some of the heaviest hands in the division? Against a fighter who might have chin issues and actual, structural chin issues? Abel hasn't been knocked out in 7 years and we've seen how hard he can be to put away. Makdessi may be more technical on the feet, but I don't think the disparity is really that big, and he'd otherwise have to grapplefck Abel.

I'm leaning toward Abel but more likely passing on the fight. There's a lot of risk on both sides, imo

 

[AxeMurderer]

I wouldn't call Abel a confident pick for me but I'm def leaning to him more than others here. Makdessi hasn't looked good recently. He hasn't looked good in years, in fact. I think it could be a mental thing more than just the Cerrone beating

I agree with you 100% I have been looking to fade him and this is the perfect fight to do so. I don’t think he is a lock by any stretch but at -175 I do think Abel is the right bet. I would not think so at the -200 that he is now. He has looked bad , like you said, for years now.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Guys of course I get your point with Makdesi but if Abel would be a +130 dog than everyone would switch to Abel.

 

[SBJJ]

Guys of course I get your point with Makdesi but if Abel would be a +130 dog than everyone would switch to Abel.

But if the pope wore a dress he'd be a nun.

He's not + anything.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

But if the pope wore a dress he'd be a nun.

He's not + anything.

Sure but I see alot love for underdogs anyway I bet him already and I feel pretty confident

 

[t6p]

Are we not factoring in though that Abel has some of the heaviest hands in the division? Against a fighter who might have chin issues and actual, structural chin issues? Abel hasn't been knocked out in 7 years and we've seen how hard he can be to put away. Makdessi may be more technical on the feet, but I don't think the disparity is really that big, and he'd otherwise have to grapplefck Abel.

I'm leaning toward Abel but more likely passing on the fight. There's a lot of risk on both sides, imo

I definitely factor in Abel's power. Although, when is the last time he finished someone with a punch, Varner in 2014? Again, pre-USADA. Like I said, I think his best chance is landing a big shot early in the fight. But, he's been mainly looking to wrestle in recent fights and he doesn't have the gas tank to sustain that gameplan.

I also don't see how you can say Abel is hard to put away, when he's been subbed in 3 of his last 5 fights and clearly wilts late. Ferguson, Tibau and Vick all potentially could have put him away with strikes had they chosen to go that route, but that's not their game.

Mak is clearly more technical on the feet, don't even see it as being close really. If there's a lot of risk on both sides, don't you want to be on the +170 side?

 

[MidgardSerpent]

Do we know that he has absurd power though?

Certainly in his spinning attacks. Not that much material out there of him, but he got lay and prayed by a wrestler for a round, got him in a clinch in the second round and starched him with two knees. And of course he went Tim Boetsch vs Ward.