UFC on ESPN+ 24 Blaydes vs Dos Santos

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Looks like a great card for dogs

I already like dos santos at +200

bol opened gravely at +175. Wish I wasn’t sleeping when that line dropped
 
Cmon William Hill....get these bets up...I'm dying here. Soooomany juicy bets.
 
Sara McMann is coming off of pregnancy and is 39

otherwise I would drop a bomb on her. She opened at +120
 
Perez and Montel will win for 95%
Arnold Allen should outpoint Emmett to A Dec.
Curtis will wrestle fuck JDS
 
Mcmann is nice at pick'em odds. But she is totally unreliable, she should have the advantage everywhere, but a big chance she will fuck it up again. MCmann is the fighter I think I lost the most money on ever.
 
Emmett+100(KO2)
Hill-155(DEC)
Gravely-110(KO2)
Lansberg-145(DEC)
Kish+160(DEC)
Landwher+140(DEC)
Cifers+150(DEC
 


McMann’s Quintet matches at 1:14. Weighed in at 150 pounds, subbed fast two 100-110 pound girls and then got armbared by 110 pounder in less than 90 seconds. Looked big as usual, but hard to say anything about her gastank based on this. I did bet against McMann in two previous bouts because I think she’s mentally weak, does not deal well with advercity and looks for way out after she starts getting tired and taking damage. The girl she lost to in Quintet is really slick, but getting armbared by someone almost 20 kg lighter is not a good look and whole tournament goes well with the pattern that McMann seems to be in hurry to get a finish before she crumbles. I’m not a grappling expert though, so I don’t really know how much chance she had to power through that position.
 
Yotsuya said:


McMann’s Quintet matches at 1:14. Weighed in at 150 pounds, subbed fast two 100-110 pound girls and then got armbared by 110 pounder in less than 90 seconds. Looked big as usual, but hard to say anything about her gastank based on this. I did bet against McMann in two previous bouts because I think she’s mentally weak, does not deal well with advercity and looks for way out after she starts getting tired and taking damage. The girl she lost to in Quintet is really slick, but getting armbared by someone almost 20 kg lighter is not a good look and whole tournament goes well with the pattern that McMann seems to be in hurry to get a finish before she crumbles. I’m not a grappling expert though, so I don’t really know how much chance she had to power through that position.
Click to expand...

Being 20kg heavier doesnt give you bjj immunity
 
ill800 said:
Being 20kg heavier doesnt give you bjj immunity
Click to expand...
I know, that’s why I asked in the last sentence for expert opinion if the armbar was too slick to just gut it out and use force to get out of it.
 
Montel Jackson, easy pick. Alex Perez, Herbert Burns and Curtis Blaydes all win.

Lina is probably a good bet
 
Without any research Im liking a ton of spots.
RDA and Blaydes solid bets. Been treating Blaydes like Ngannou, on that train untill he lets me down.
RDA is not going to be held against the cage and outgrappled by Chiesa let be honest. His finish of Lee showed us he still has stuff in the tank.

Im liking Angela HIll , ( and her odds have gotten better)?

Perez and Montel should be locks. Although at least Perez aint as juiced.
 
I also like RDA. Even at his current line. Dont see Chiesa having much for him. I can even see RDA finishing pretty easily, so excited to see the props.
 
RDA at -205 here is a gift IMO. I'd cap him -320ish

I've never rated Chiesa though so maybe I'm blinded a bit?

Chiesa is at that camp that don't believe in checking leg kicks? If so, RDA chops him down
 
I feel like a lot of people undervalue Chiesa , I am not trying to be one of them. Just looking at it from a stylistic perspective. RDA is so well rounded and he wont gass. Dont see Chiesas advantage.
 
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