UFC on ESPN 3 Ngannou vs Dos Santos

Oblivian said:
I could go on and on about things with him. This is a guy who started his touting service literally not really caring about odds. He only wanted to bet "winners". It could definitely give an appearance of good runs as he'd win three events in a row, but most of the bets were heavy favs. Those winnings would all be diminished with one bad event.

He was also horrible at insisting bets that lost were still a good bet based upon "all of the tape that was available pre fight". It was obviously just variance, right?

Then there is the distortion of units. Rather than define units traditionally, he used a smaller unit size so bets were bigger. What this does is distorts winnings to make them look bigger than they are. What sucked for him is that he was so shitty, it also really distorted losses. I think I remember a 30-40 unit loss one event.

Then comes along live betting which has probably been the best thing to happen to touts. They are selling packages for pre fight bets, but then they distort results with live bets that did or didn't happen.

Quite frankly, he characterizes some of the worst traits in gamblers. Not all, but a good portion of degenerate gamblers who like to describe themselves as "pros" or aspiring pros really live in a distorted reality. On top of that, he has the tout thing going which are generally cons. The reason these touts can make money is due to the bad traits of gamblers looking for their big break.

/rant
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Heh, this reminds me of a random who shares a mutual friend with me on Facebook, a very successful poker pro. He posted on the poker pro's wall how insanely easy it is to make a profit on MMA. I was curious, and asked him how he did it.

He responded that he follows the recommendations of one of these touts on Twitter and claimed his ROI was something like 17%. I looked up the guy's results, and for the majority of the 3 years he had been posting picks, he had been a losing gambler. However, over the past 5 months he had hit a hot streak, which gave him a whopping +3u in 3 years. (Nowhere near 17% ROI, obviously)

I asked the random idiot how this was "insanely easy" and why there were so many losses until very recently. The guy confidently replied that the tout had made mistakes earlier, but he learned from them, and NOW he was bullet-proof! (Famous last words)

Naturally, I checked back on the tout's results 6 months later...and he was a deeply losing gambler again.
 
Sauna said:
Pretty sure diary of a pro gambler is polarbearsomething.
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This is funny on so many levels. I would never, ever want to be a tout.

Notice I very, very rarely even analyze fights or post my plays until right before the event in the public threads here anymore.
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
Where's the EZ money guy at? Need his picks so I can fade and make some coins. Been in a bit of a slump.
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I was wondering this earlier and got no response. I wonder if he was "taken out". I mean did you read his analysis and fight breakdowns for his picks? Damn- It almost seemed like he was cheating the system.
 
sonhow said:
I was wondering this earlier and got no response. I wonder if he was "taken out". I mean did you read his analysis and fight breakdowns for his picks? Damn- It almost seemed like he was cheating the system.
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He admittedly had a good week last week but the several weeks prior his bets were bonafide fade material
 
TrueAscension said:
He admittedly had a good week last week but the several weeks prior his bets were bonafide fade material
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Ascenion, what do you think about a four way parlay, all guys inside the distance, with Dober, Ramos, Menifield & Anders? 25 bucks pays more than 300.

My shitty logic is that Dober is a durable and hard hitter with a wrestling degree against a mediocre chinned guy who's completely lost on the ground... Ramos is in my opinion a full level above Journey.

Anders is facing a glorified punching bag who couldn't be any more immobile if his feet were in cement and who fights with no head movement and a stationary high guard... porous defense and a weak chin also plague Craig and he's in there with a real hitter.
 
Bought out for a freeroll on Formiga. Didn't like betting against JoeB as it was and late movement sealed the deal. He probably wins.
 
LiquidNuke said:
Ascenion, what do you think about a four way parlay, all guys inside the distance, with Dober, Ramos, Menifield & Anders? 25 bucks pays more than 300.

My shitty logic is that Dober is a durable and hard hitter with a wrestling degree against a mediocre chinned guy who's completely lost on the ground... Ramos is in my opinion a full level above Journey.

Anders is facing a glorified punching bag who couldn't be any more immobile if his feet were in cement and who fights with no head movement and a stationary high guard... porous defense and a weak chin also plague Craig and he's in there with a real hitter.
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If you're asking if I like parlaying all 4 of those end in a finish, I like it. That said, I would do another one sans Dober.
 
Diary of a Pro Gambler has had some good leans at times, but nothing that one of a million predictors couldn't come up with. He had Glover over Ion, Ciwboy over Al. I have visited his chat room after a losing event and a bad live bet session before though to see what the chat is and he will just totally dismiss anyone who has a bad word to say, basically saying he knows better and the pick was good based on the info. Also claimes he would be a millionaire now if it wasn't for betting limits haha

I have a feeling that what he has been trying to do is slightly manipulate odds. Basically he will strongly suggest that he wasn't to bet a particular fight because he thinks they will win, and the only reason he's not is because the odds are off.. So then everyone who's watching his videos/on his site makes the bet any way. Then he will have his live betting members bet the other fighter who is the guy he actually favours.

Plus he charges people $200 a month for his live betting service, shocking. Claims to have 30 members live betting, if true hes making $50000 a year just from those subs.

Never seen a bet slip posted from him, never seen any of his members from the live team post a slip, nothing..

Con artist. He does know a thing or two about MMA and betting but no more than any of the regulars here
 
ApplesVild said:
Diary of a Pro Gambler has had some good leans at times, but nothing that one of a million predictors couldn't come up with. He had Glover over Ion, Ciwboy over Al. I have visited his chat room after a losing event and a bad live bet session before though to see what the chat is and he will just totally dismiss anyone who has a bad word to say, basically saying he knows better and the pick was good based on the info. Also claimes he would be a millionaire now if it wasn't for betting limits haha

I have a feeling that what he has been trying to do is slightly manipulate odds. Basically he will strongly suggest that he wasn't to bet a particular fight because he thinks they will win, and the only reason he's not is because the odds are off.. So then everyone who's watching his videos/on his site makes the bet any way. Then he will have his live betting members bet the other fighter who is the guy he actually favours.

Plus he charges people $200 a month for his live betting service, shocking. Claims to have 30 members live betting, if true hes making $50000 a year just from those subs.

Never seen a bet slip posted from him, never seen any of his members from the live team post a slip, nothing..

Con artist. He does know a thing or two about MMA and betting but no more than any of the regulars here
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I find it really scummy to charge for picks in general. There is an uncertainty and risk to sports gambling no matter how good you are, and that risk is assumed by the bettor, not the guy giving the advice. Getting paid for said advice incentivizes scumbags preying on bettors, especially given how easy it is claim fake results. (As several members in this subforum have shown)

Personally, if I like you, I will gladly share my picks and analysis, and will be happy if you win, even if it's a fight I haven't bet myself. If I don't like you, I will make sure you don't see any of that, and will be extra careful posting anything that could help you in your betting approach or specific fights.
 
His current schtick is that he has a crypto currency algorithm that can predict how the market will move with a 75% success rate. He will post constantly about fluctuations and then announce how he made 4/5/6 hundred dollars with that trade... Shows no proof, just says it and people go along with it. I am very sure that over the next few months he will be offering a few exclusive members access to his crypto system... At a cost
 
ApplesVild said:
His current schtick is that he has a crypto currency algorithm that can predict how the market will move with a 75% success rate. He will post constantly about fluctuations and then announce how he made 4/5/6 hundred dollars with that trade... Shows no proof, just says it and people go along with it. I am very sure that over the next few months he will be offering a few exclusive members access to his crypto system... At a cost
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Sounds like stupid people being separated from their common sense and money...
 
LiquidNuke said:
Sounds like stupid people being separated from their common sense and money...
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I'm sure he does watch tape and probably does have some success with live betting, but I think anyone on here could do the same. Give me, you, whoever on here a full week to watch tape for one event and any one of us could make 2 per fight bets that are likely to hit and a hit a few good lines live.
 
Omni1 said:
We haven't seen Ribas in 3 years. She has been training at ATT. I feel very confident she will look much better than 3 years ago. I played her sub prop at +725.
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Coming out of TUF I'd have said Whitmire wasn't UFC caliber then, OK she looked solid enough in her 2 fights since but she fought bottom tier opponents. I like that Ribas trains at ATT, I like that she is a BJJ BB, and I like that she has a solid Judo base (she said she trained with the national team, so I assume she was at a decent level), OK we've no real idea what she'll look like out there - could be awful - but that sub line is reallll sexy against someone who's been finished several times due to grappling and is riding a bit of a hype wave after squashing some cans.

Also Ribas only has 1 loss and it was kinda a fluke (she slipped on some mat advertising, did the splits and ate a combo to her exposed face), since I've seen some ppl saying getting KO'd by Viana is a bad look (which it is, but... context)
 
We're all wasting our time here in the betting sub-forum boys, the real sharps are over in the main UFC forum!:

MsWUd8w.jpg
 
LiquidNuke said:
Sounds like stupid people being separated from their common sense and money...
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Here's one of his customers. He thinks Chris has integrity & is very honest.



“It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled.”

― Mark Twain
 
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