UFC on ESPN 54: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot

[PuertoRican]

Main Card (ESPN / ESPN+)​
Women's Flyweight	Erin Blanchfield	vs.	Manon Fiorot
Welterweight	Vicente Luque	vs.	Joaquin Buckley
Middleweight	Chris Weidman	vs.	Bruno Silva
Middleweight	Nursulton Ruziboev	vs.	Sedriques Dumas
Featherweight	Bill Algeo	vs.	Kyle Nelson
Welterweight	Chidi Njokuani	vs.	Rhys McKee
Preliminary Card (ESPN / ESPN+)​
Featherweight	Nate Landwehr	vs.	Jamall Emmers
Women's Strawweight	Virna Jandiroba	vs.	Loopy Godinez
Featherweight	Julio Arce	vs.	Herbert Burns
Featherweight	Dennis Buzukja	vs.	Connor Matthews
Light Heavyweight	Ibo Aslan	vs.	Anton Turkalj
Women's Flyweight	Viktoriia Dudakova	vs.	Melissa Gatto
Middleweight	Andre Petroski	vs.	Jacob Malkoun
Bantamweight	Angel Pacheco	vs.	Caolan Loughran

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Played Petroski so far, I think he's going to do more on the feet and as an actual decent wrestler I think he can avoid Malkoun taking him down for the most part. My main concern is him slowing down late.

Watching line movements on a couple of other fights

 

[yellowbean]

Anyone has any idea on luque vs buckley？

 

[burge13]

I liked Luque but line seems to be moving against me so maybe im missing something.

Algeo/Bruno double and Landwehr what im looking at. The boxings on so wont be watching this garbage card live anyway. Might catch replay of Luque fight if its any good

 

[Jasper_RB81]

I have a pretty square parley with 1U on Algeo and Silva @+110. I just don't think you need to complicate these fights much.
Algeo puts on a great pace and Nelson likes to keep the fight slow and presumably still has bad cardio. I think Algeo will break Nelson eventually.
Weidman is just so old and has been so inactive. I know some people think the Tavares fight was a good look for Weidman and admittedly he looked better than expected, but he still looked so slow and plodding. I think the time has past Weidman a long time ago. Silva is probably going to knock him out.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

Anyone has any idea on luque vs buckley？

Line is getting steamed on the Buckley side. I think a lot of it has to do with Luque saying something about being afraid to get hit after the RDA fight and also the way he fought towards the end of that fight. Feels like he might be done very soon. Haven't bet anything myself, but it's Buckley or pass for sure.

 

[Thesnake101]

I really like Emmers here, think he'll be too slick for Landwehr.

Petroski and Chidi are also guys I'm looking at, especially Chidi since he should be much better than Rhys. Maybe I'll hit his KO line there.

 

[guesswhoseback]

Anyone has any idea on luque vs buckley？

Luque-dec

 

[guesswhoseback]

Aslan-ko1-115
Mckee-ko3+165
Loughran-ko2-325
Dudakeva-dec+140
Petroski-dec+165
Burns-ko1+300
Godinez-dec-200
Algeo-dec-225
Ruzibeov-sub1-250
Silva-ko2-280
Luque-dec-110
Blanchfield-dec-180

 

[Jasper_RB81]

I really like Emmers here, think he'll be too slick for Landwehr.

Petroski and Chidi are also guys I'm looking at, especially Chidi since he should be much better than Rhys. Maybe I'll hit his KO line there.

Just be aware that Chidi is going down in weight class for the first time UFC. It's not like he has a lot of fat on him as it is, so not sure where he is going to find that weight to cut.... might have to remove a foot or something. He is also 35 with questionable cardio and durability as it is.

 

[Thesnake101]

Just be aware that Chidi is going down in weight class for the first time UFC. It's not like he has a lot of fat on him as it is, so not sure where he is going to find that weight to cut.... might have to remove a foot or something. He is also 35 with questionable cardio and durability as it is.

He's a former WW, that's where he started in Bellator and I think in the regionals as well.

He fought and beat Jouban way back in the day at WW.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

He's a former WW, that's where he started in Bellator and I think in the regionals as well.

He fought and beat Jouban way back in the day at WW.

Ye, but look at his physique against Michal. He is shredded, there's not much fat on that body. Perhaps he can do it, but it's a rough cut for sure. He is by far the better striker, barely comparable but if he can't get Rhys out of there in the first 5 minutes he is done.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

I have a pretty square parley with 1U on Algeo and Silva @+110. I just don't think you need to complicate these fights much.
Weidman is just so old and has been so inactive. I know some people think the Tavares fight was a good look for Weidman and admittedly he looked better than expected, but he still looked so slow and plodding. I think the time has past Weidman a long time ago. Silva is probably going to knock him out.

There's an issue here: You just don't bet Bruno Silva as a favourite. He's more of an underdog type of play. You don't expect much from him and get him for cheap to surprise you. Guy's an action fighter, I'll give him that. Pushes a pace, has a great heart. But there's not a lot of sophistication anywhere, also not a good athlete. How is Brendan Allen knocking you down, man? Twice. He has functional striking, but it's not even his A game.
You get for cheap freaking Chris Weidman, man! Yeah he is shot, but is an actual athlete with "A" level of wrestling and grappling. And let's not forget the recent rejuvenation that some fighters have shown us after UFC kicked out USADA. OSP comes to mind as a fresh example.
Weidman is one of these guys who's game I'm willing to bet will be totally different on and off supplements. He's a strong wrestler with good grappling and control. Even the worst version of Weidman has good chances in this fight, but I'm willing to bet we'll see a refreshed Weidman. Bruno Silva is not a guy who's gonna pick Weidman from a far, kick his legs and be safe from takedowns. He's going right in Weidman's face and is either going to knock him out, or get wrestled to the ground and submitted. More often than not I'm betting the wrestler in such situations and odds from the bookies. It's just more reliable than a KO. And I can hedge with a Silva 1st round knockout if I'm not willing to get completely exposed in this spot.
P.S.Don't be surprised if you see Weidman looking like he got 10 years younger all of a sudden when in the cage.

 

[magpie878]

Why on Earth would Weidman appear ten years younger, when he's admittedly shot?

He could have, and SHOULD have, been finished in his fight with Tavares, who clearly was being a dope and standing and staring, letting him off the hook. More than once if I remember correctly.

Sure, he can win. But I would never count on some magical rejuvenation here.

 

[Thesnake101]

Ye, but look at his physique against Michal. He is shredded, there's not much fat on that body. Perhaps he can do it, but it's a rough cut for sure. He is by far the better striker, barely comparable but if he can't get Rhys out of there in the first 5 minutes he is done.

If he'd never made the cut before, I'd be more concerned. We've seen a ton of crazy cuts over the years, like Aldo going to BW despite looking like death on the scale for some FW fights, I'd only be concerned if he misses weight by a lot or something.

Or if he were fighting anyone more dangerous than Rhys. I could see this looking like Chidi's Contender Series fight, instead of him going balls to the wall for an early finish he just stays ahead and controls McKee when needed.

 

[sonhow]

Just be aware that Chidi is going down in weight class for the first time UFC. It's not like he has a lot of fat on him as it is, so not sure where he is going to find that weight to cut.... might have to remove a foot or something. He is also 35 with questionable cardio and durability as it is.

Isnt this at mw? I was listening to sherdog preview and they said Rhys was going up

 

[XociDe]

Chidi has missed weight SEVEN times at 170. It makes no sense for him to try 170 again at 35 years old where it will be much harder than before. The official UFC site (and everywhere else) says he's going down tho.

I wouldn't touch Chidi either way these days. He seems to have zero heart/cardio. He might just be there for the $$$. If he can't blast Rhys out in 3/4 minutes, he probably gets finished again. Rhys sucks but he is durable and will push a pace for the full 15 mins unless he gets slept.

 

[Broe.]

The only reason Blanchfield beat Santos was a comical error from Santos. She pulled Blanchfield on top of her in the middle of rd 2. Before that it really wasn't going Blanchfield's way. I really think the odds on Blanchfield vs Fiorot are whack. I think Fiorot is likely to win the first 2 rounds with her superior striking and her physicality will prevent any takedowns from Blanchfield imo. After the first 2 rounds it will be interesting to see if Fiorots' cardio will hold up. But I definitely think she is worth a bet at these odds. I might hedge Blanchfield live after rd 1 where I am quite sure she will be like +200 at least.

 

[Stat_Collector]

The only reason Blanchfield beat Santos was a comical error from Santos. She pulled Blanchfield on top of her in the middle of rd 2. Before that it really wasn't going Blanchfield's way. I really think the odds on Blanchfield vs Fiorot are whack. I think Fiorot is likely to win the first 2 rounds with her superior striking and her physicality will prevent any takedowns from Blanchfield imo. After the first 2 rounds it will be interesting to see if Fiorots' cardio will hold up. But I definitely think she is worth a bet at these odds. I might hedge Blanchfield live after rd 1 where I am quite sure she will be like +200 at least.

the only two cons i can think of is that Manon is 34 and her only loss in her career was to a grappler in leah McCourt. i do think she can win this. Santos was coming off a lay off and a dispute with a coach . Those factors screwed it enough for Erin to win.

Erin reminds me of Jailton Almeida of wmma. the right matchups and bad circumstances for her opponent has made her look better than she is.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Manon+Nate+Chidi are a good parlay combo

Nate's chin kinda sucks, but he did pretty well with Ige, landed some high volume, his chin just betrayed him and he gave up rounds by getting wobbled and dropped. hit or miss.