UFC on Fox 30 Alvarez vs Poirier II

mkess101 said:
The Conor loss was a 1 shot KO, the prolonged beatings from Max have most likely taken a far greater toll. Also, while Aldo deservedly got the W vs Frankie, go rewatch. It was WAY more competitive than I think most people seem to remember.

All that said, no way I'd play Stephens ML. I think there's some value on Aldo now, but if I was gonna play Jeremy I'd play his KO line. He's probably not winning a dec.
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Yea I mean the max fights def took their toll on Aldo but I still think he has some left and if he doesn’t oh well it’s not like we have to pay up
To find out. Line is nice and low.
 


The study empirically investigates the factors, including fighters hand preference and mixed martial arts style ( Striker or Middle or Grappler ) , affecting the winning rate of Mixed Martial Arts competitions. We crawled the data of fighters and contests from UFC ( Ultimate Fighting Championship ) official website and some MMA platform website by R Language; we used logistic regression to analyze these data. The results show that left-handed fighters increase their winning rate while they confront right-handed fighters; in addition, the results also indicate that Striker is the worst style in UFC, Striker decrease the winning rate while they confront Middle and Grappler. We also found that the fighters with longer reach, younger age, higher strike and takedown defense rate can increase their winning rate. Furthermore we add odds into our model, turns out it significantly reject H_0, which means we found some factors that aren’t considered by dealer.
 
5 dimes is annoying as hell waiting forever to post full props and over under rounds just fucking release it pussies
 
zeckdo said:
Half unit on Kajan Johnson +400, the fact Islam Makachev is -600 is laughable. 1 win over Gleison Tibau and he's juiced down to -600...
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Kajan Johnson is a pillow-fisted fighter who has nothing but good movement and okay bjj. He only got a KO on Martins by frustrating him till he ran into a punch as Martins wanted to stand the whole fight. Makhachev is LEVELS above him and the least I can imagine is him putting on a wrestling clinic for a dominant decision.

To be fair, I've lost by fading Kajan Johnson before, but the skill gaps here are much wider. Kajan's a weak fighter in the division who happens to be on a winstreak, while Makhachev is expected to start getting in the ranks. That's why the line is where it is. Not bothering to place a bet here. Making a play on Kajan feels like throwing money away
 
Count me as one who thinks Aldo is done. Thought Stephens would open as a decent size favorite, but ill be placing a couple hundred on Stephens with these odds now that i see them
 
Aldo beating Frankie after Conor loss is enough to convince me he'll laugh at Stephens. Can't believe his odds here, as Everyone is gonna lose to Max in 145. Aldo will fight v cagey and immobilise Stephens with leg kicks, hes a better striker too. Stephens can will by KO i he catches him but its a very big if and his odds to win are a joke.Easy points win for Aldo.
 
ilwab said:
Aldo beating Frankie after Conor loss is enough to convince me he'll laugh at Stephens. Can't believe his odds here, as Everyone is gonna lose to Max in 145. Aldo will fight v cagey and immobilise Stephens with leg kicks, hes a better striker too. Stephens can will by KO i he catches him but its a very big if and his odds to win are a joke.Easy points win for Aldo.
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People continually bring up Aldo leg kicks; they did before both max fights & they are now. He doesn't use them anymore; if he did he probably wouldn't have been battered as bad as he was. Should he use them? Absolutely! Will he? We can't be confident in that anymore...

Edit: I'm on Aldo at -120 or better, just saying the leg kicks are a near myth at this point
 
MMAJay said:
I can get Ortiz ML @ +205 - Im thinking about a play on him as well. He has solid nonstop wrestling pressure and good scrambling abilities both offensive and defensively. Im impressed by Nicolau, but I imagine that he won't get his striking offense going before Ortiz close the distance over and over again. Nicolau has 100% TDD, but Ortiz gritty wrestling style is much different from Smolka and Moraga.
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excactly my thoughts pretty much. where did you find +205?
 
Really starting to feel Makdessi as my favorite bet for this card. Some small plays but not enough confidence in most of the dogs, and my confident picks are now getting too juiced.

Makdessi's not going on a title run anytime soon, but he can still fight extremely solid. Pearson's looked like he's on his way out for a while, and a win over an aging Hirota doesn't impress me much. Pearson's best chances are usually with volume striking, but statistically Makdessi should have the advantage even there.
 
I also think people are seriously overlooking Devin Powell's line. Herrera is straight up not at a UFC level at all. Only reason he's still here was because of a flash ko of someone on his TUF season. His last two fights were completely one-sided.

Powell is by no means a very high-level fighter, but he has toughness and a decent overall game. He's a strong level above anything Herrera has. Powell should either sub him or grind out a dominant decision.

If I didn't lose half my money tonight fading that Jesse Eisenberg kid I'd get on Powell pretty heavy. His ML is a steal right now
 
rev0lver said:
I also think people are seriously overlooking Devin Powell's line. Herrera is straight up not at a UFC level at all. Only reason he's still here was because of a flash ko of someone on his TUF season. His last two fights were completely one-sided.

Powell is by no means a very high-level fighter, but he has toughness and a decent overall game. He's a strong level above anything Herrera has. Powell should either sub him or grind out a dominant decision.

If I didn't lose half my money tonight fading that Jesse Eisenberg kid I'd get on Powell pretty heavy. His ML is a steal right now
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Powell's also not UFC-caliber by any means, but I do trust his toughness/cardio a lot more than I do Herrera's. Powell lost his last fight against a guy who was 9 months off essentially full-body reconstruction surgery. https://www.mmafighting.com/2017/6/27/15878486/the-miraculous-second-life-of-darrell-horcher

Card said:


The study empirically investigates the factors, including fighters hand preference and mixed martial arts style ( Striker or Middle or Grappler ) , affecting the winning rate of Mixed Martial Arts competitions. We crawled the data of fighters and contests from UFC ( Ultimate Fighting Championship ) official website and some MMA platform website by R Language; we used logistic regression to analyze these data. The results show that left-handed fighters increase their winning rate while they confront right-handed fighters; in addition, the results also indicate that Striker is the worst style in UFC, Striker decrease the winning rate while they confront Middle and Grappler. We also found that the fighters with longer reach, younger age, higher strike and takedown defense rate can increase their winning rate. Furthermore we add odds into our model, turns out it significantly reject H_0, which means we found some factors that aren’t considered by dealer.
Click to expand...


Based on my own research, shorter fighters with longer reach than their opponent have like a 15% ROI since 2012. I think it's inflated a bit by outliers like Jones and Lee, but it seems to be worth a hell of a lot.
 
Devin Powell - Alvaro Herrera ( maybe dog wins)
Didnt analyse this fight, both are bums

Randa Markos - Nina Ansarof
Nina should put here out a decision, she has edge in stand up and training with Amanda Nunes should pay off for this fight

Dustin Ortiz - Matheu Niccolau (maybe dog wins, 30%)
Im betting here Matheu, he has good stand up, droped Smolka multiple times and Matheu has a ground game also.
Only concern is cardio but I think he should win this fight. He looked fine after such long layoff against Smolka.

John Makdesi - Ross Pearson
Makdesi will win this, Pearson should retire. John won last fight against Trujilo who would smoke Pearson.
Odds are accurate, Makdesi should win a decision.

Alexis Davis - Katlyn Chookogian
Katlyn should win a decision in Holly Holm style

Antigulov - Cutelaba (maybe Dog wins 30%)
The question is if Antigulov can take down Cutelaba, I bet Antigulov but Im not so confident now that he wins.
If Cutelaba defends the takedowns than he should smoke Antigulov
For me Antigulov 70/30

Kajan Johnson vs Islam
Not much to say, Islam will rape Kajan.
If you want to lose money than better send money to a dog shelter than bet Kajan Johnson

Hakeem Dawodu vs Austin
Hakeem will smoke Austin in stand up, last fight was a fluke and Hakeem will want to make a statement.
Dont bet the dog, better send money to a dog shelter

Jordan Mein vs Alex Morono
Im betting here Jordan, he is way experienced and is well rounded. He should win this fight against Morono who isnt a world beater.
Suprised he is the underdog here LOL

Alexander Hernandez vs OAM
Im on Hernandez, he has showed good movement and ko power. He should pull out a upset here, Im not convinced on OAM

JJ vs Tecia
JJ will smoke Tecia, dont lose money on betting the dog.. better send money on charity or dog shelter.

Jose Aldo vs Jeremy
Well I know Aldo lost 2 fights in the row against Max but I kinda favour him in this fight to win a decision.
Its a risky fight anyway because we dont know how Aldo will look like after the beating he took in the last fight...
Aldo decision or Jeremy ko (Aldo 60/40) no bet for me.

Dustin vs Eddie
I got a feeling that this time Eddie will win, he is very motivated since this is his last fight on the contract and he had his moments in their first fight too. Odds should be near evens but Im happy to bet Eddie at this odds.

Oh and I was serious with dog shelter, when winter comes Im always bringing food and so on to a dog shelter in my city, if you want lose money on dogs who wont win than better use it in a better way and help others.
 
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We still don't have any lines in the UK on my
Book except for Eddie and Dustin

I'm waiting for Aldo

I see no path to victory for Jezza here
Just a quick look down his record and his losses tells the story of this fight, he can't win decisions over decent strikers
I'll take my chances that Aldo's defence holds up
 
MMAJay said:
Good point. I will :) I still favour Cutelabas cardio in later rounds. For me, it all depends whether he can keep it standing in the first round or not. If Antigulov get a decent takedown with top control, he will most likely sub Cutelaba anyways, but I would never pick Antigulov ML or DEC. If he wins, it will be by sub. I will trust Cutelabas sick chin (even if he's coming of suspension) and cardio for later rounds.
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Hey man, PED's are amazing things and I bet you cutelaba gets the good shit where he's from
Without it.. that cardio I'm expecting to be gone
 
Card said:


The study empirically investigates the factors, including fighters hand preference and mixed martial arts style ( Striker or Middle or Grappler ) , affecting the winning rate of Mixed Martial Arts competitions. We crawled the data of fighters and contests from UFC ( Ultimate Fighting Championship ) official website and some MMA platform website by R Language; we used logistic regression to analyze these data. The results show that left-handed fighters increase their winning rate while they confront right-handed fighters; in addition, the results also indicate that Striker is the worst style in UFC, Striker decrease the winning rate while they confront Middle and Grappler. We also found that the fighters with longer reach, younger age, higher strike and takedown defense rate can increase their winning rate. Furthermore we add odds into our model, turns out it significantly reject H_0, which means we found some factors that aren’t considered by dealer.
Click to expand...


Are you able to provide the .PDF? I cant download it.
 
Gugabe said:
Powell's also not UFC-caliber by any means, but I do trust his toughness/cardio a lot more than I do Herrera's. Powell lost his last fight against a guy who was 9 months off essentially full-body reconstruction surgery. https://www.mmafighting.com/2017/6/27/15878486/the-miraculous-second-life-of-darrell-horcher
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Yup I remember that. But it's practically an average regional-level fighter vs a can. Powell isn't great but he's durable, has decent cardio, and has a complete game. Herrera's only chance is an early knockout against a better fighter who's never been knocked out. I'd be smashing Powell's line as long as it stays under -200
 
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