UFC on Fox 31 Iaquinta vs Lee II

I think Lee should be -500. Only chance I see Al winning are stuffing a few shots in the first round and swarming Lee on the feet with power punches
you do understand that -500 means that you are giving Lee 83.3% and historically 82% of the fighters within -400~-567 have won. Hmm.. that is a tough pill to swallow. I advocate Lee but not at -500. Even current line of -310 is far too hyped. Needs to come down to -200 or so.
 
you do understand that -500 means that you are giving Lee 83.3% and historically 82% of the fighters within -400~-567 have won. Hmm.. that is a tough pill to swallow. I advocate Lee but not at -500. Even current line of -310 is far too hyped. Needs to come down to -200 or so.
didn't you just learn how to do the math yourself 1 day ago???
Your numbers are off. -310 implies over 75%. Plus, you have to factor in the juice on the other side so if you contemplating a dog play, you have to take the actual odds on the dog instead of just substracting the implied probability of the favorite winning from 100%.

So in this case where Lee is -310 and Iaquinta is +255, the actual percentages you are looking at when considering a play are 75.61% and 28.17%.

I know the implied probability of -500... Do you have any reasoning why Iaquinta should be +170 instead of +255?
 
didn't you just learn how to do the math yourself 1 day ago???
I know the implied probability of -500... Do you have any reasoning why Iaquinta should be +170 instead of +255?
No need to be abrasive here. I think you misread the intent of my post. It wasn't to sound like a condescending douche. I apologize if it did.
Here is why I think Lee should be closer to -200 than -500.
1) when two professional fighters duel it out, especially in the top 10 or near the top 10, it is rarely one sided. From that alone, I assume that most fights among the high rankers is around 50:50.
2) Second, I can actually imagine some ways that Iaquinta could beat Kevin Lee. And I think putting Iaquinta's odds of winning at 35% ~+185 is reasonable.
I also agree with many of the posters who mentioned that Al has a strong TDD. Lee is also a bit chinny. Lee is not the best grappler. (I think Lee is nowhere near Khabib's level, the only reason why he looked great against Barboza is because Khabib already solved the puzzle for him)
 
No need to be abrasive here. I think you misread the intent of my post. It wasn't to sound like a condescending douche. I apologize if it did.
Here is why I think Lee should be closer to -200 than -500.
1) when two professional fighters duel it out, especially in the top 10 or near the top 10, it is rarely one sided. From that alone, I assume that most fights among the high rankers is around 50:50.
2) Second, I can actually imagine some ways that Iaquinta could beat Kevin Lee. And I think putting Iaquinta's odds of winning at 35% ~+185 is reasonable.
I also agree with many of the posters who mentioned that Al has a strong TDD. Lee is also a bit chinny. Lee is not the best grappler. (I think Lee is nowhere near Khabib's level, the only reason why he looked great against Barboza is because Khabib already solved the puzzle for him)
Lee is a better top control player than Khabib, and probably beats him head to head via being a very similar athlete, having a better gastank and being able to get top position. Khabib probably beats more guys in the top 15 than Lee, but Lee's got a ton of advantages straight up.

Iaquinta's an awkward matchup for him, though. Lee's not as good as Khabib at getting guys down, is chinny and has defensive striking issues.

Point 1 is insane. There are plenty of one-sided top 10 matchups, based on how styles interlock, how big the gaps are in divisions and dumb luck.
 
i have 1k on barboza needa make back my 2k loss from this weekend T_T

i betted like 10 events straight breaking even on half and winnin good on the other half for a total of 7k so it was bound to happen but it makes me feel scared. i get vulnerable. i lose my reason to exist and breathe air. but then i look at the betting odds for the next event and i see barboza as a dog and i get happy again. if this loses ill quit betting take my winnings and hire a private investigator to help me find the 11k cash i lost from my suitcase. the police collected and reviewed all the relevant footage and we believe it was left in the uber drivers trunk now so he's our main lead.
 
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LOL Lee sure talks a lot of crap out of his behind. For someone that lost the belt to Tony and couldn't hold on to. Not to mention the Dagestan fighter always chances his fighting styles. I am surprised he didn't challenge Max Holloway yet! lol.
http://www.ufc.ca/news/Lee-Practices-Patience-Eyes-A-Future-As-Champ
Nurmagomedov’s submission win upped his perfect record to 27-0, but Lee has long believed that he’s the one who will put a “1” in the Dagestan native’s loss column. And though he would love to get a shot at the belt now, he believes that next title fight shouldn’t belong to him.
 
I certainly favor Kevin Lee, but I'd need the line to shift pretty significantly.

Right now it's a pass.
 
What's Barboza's win conditions against Hooker? I doubt he'll finish Hooker.

I personally see Hooker implementing a similar gameplan like he did against Yair except executing it better.

I highly doubt he's going to try and strike at Barboza's range. He'll try pressuring him and avoiding striking as much as he can by trying to wrestle/clinch. I feel like Barboza won't handle the pressure well.

what do you guys think? I dont see much value on a Barboza bet. am i missing anything?
 
The amount of damage that Barboza has taken, especially in the last two fight, gotta be career changing. Can't argue that Barboza is past his prime.

Hooker has looked massively improved since his move to LW. Not sure I've seen a fighter benefit as much as Hooker has from changing weight class. Wasn't that long ago that Jason Knight has out striking and beating Hooker all over the Octagon.

How do you not take Hooker in this one, especially at current odds. Do you want a named fighter that is damaged goods and past his prime? Or do you want the guy that's finishing everyone and looking better every time.

The momentum for each fighter could not be more different.

Whats with Barboza going to ATT as well. The guy has lost confidence in himself and his team
 
Point 1 is insane. There are plenty of one-sided top 10 matchups, based on how styles interlock, how big the gaps are in divisions and dumb luck.
But what about their win/loss patterns?
 
But what about their win/loss patterns?
Full respect that what MMA Oracle's been doing for like... 4 events now seems to be working so far, but it's incoherent, insane and at best just random noise in the data.

The amount of damage that Barboza has taken, especially in the last two fight, gotta be career changing. Can't argue that Barboza is past his prime.

Hooker has looked massively improved since his move to LW. Not sure I've seen a fighter benefit as much as Hooker has from changing weight class. Wasn't that long ago that Jason Knight has out striking and beating Hooker all over the Octagon.

How do you not take Hooker in this one, especially at current odds. Do you want a named fighter that is damaged goods and past his prime? Or do you want the guy that's finishing everyone and looking better every time.

The momentum for each fighter could not be more different.

Whats with Barboza going to ATT as well. The guy has lost confidence in himself and his team
Hooker just feels like he'll give Barboza a range striking battle that maximizes Barboza's chance of looking great. Barboza just went in against 2 pure pressure fighters, whilst Hooker's meanwhile's honestly had a fairly weak strength of schedule at LW. Pearson is eh and was giving him a competitive striking match till he got caught, Diakiese was giving him a competitive match despite being unwilling to pull the trigger, Miller looked horrific in there and Burns is the only win I'd really rate of the 4.

Barboza's also had an interesting relationship with damage throughout his career. I remember 5-6 years ago when he was supposedly too chinny and fragile to make it anywhere after the Varner KO. Dude's clearly otherworldly tough, and will get his preferred matchup. Hooker might still win that bout, but I'm going somebody better proven at the top level in Barboza.
 
shoot. I guess I am the mockery of the forum. Here is another prediction.
Out of the main event:

Lee
Barboza
Pettis
Oliveira

Only 3 of these fighters will win and one will lose. I don't know which one for sure but numbers indicate that its Pettis.
So for me, the most likely outcome on the main card is Lee, Barboza, Font and Oliveira.
 
Full respect that what MMA Oracle's been doing for like... 4 events now seems to be working so far, but it's incoherent, insane and at best just random noise in the data.


Hooker just feels like he'll give Barboza a range striking battle that maximizes Barboza's chance of looking great. Barboza just went in against 2 pure pressure fighters, whilst Hooker's meanwhile's honestly had a fairly weak strength of schedule at LW. Pearson is eh and was giving him a competitive striking match till he got caught, Diakiese was giving him a competitive match despite being unwilling to pull the trigger, Miller looked horrific in there and Burns is the only win I'd really rate of the 4.

Barboza's also had an interesting relationship with damage throughout his career. I remember 5-6 years ago when he was supposedly too chinny and fragile to make it anywhere after the Varner KO. Dude's clearly otherworldly tough, and will get his preferred matchup. Hooker might still win that bout, but I'm going somebody better proven at the top level in Barboza.
Yeah I agree with what you're saying but I'd be scared to bet against Hooker right now. I tried with Burns and failed. There were plenty of reasons to think Burns was going to win that fight, it just shows how good Hooker is. No one has ever done anything like that to Burns.

Hooker's potential just seems to grow and grow at LW, just keeps looking impressive.

I think Barboza is more vulnerable than ever, his days as a contender are over, he'll never see a title shot, his career is kind of going no where. Now it's just about him fighting the guys on the way up, guys like Hooker who wanna take his spot. The camp change is also not a good look IMO

Barboza has taken 215 significant strikes to the head over his last two fights
 
So for me, the most likely outcome on the main card is Lee, Barboza, Font and Oliveira.
Sounds good to me. I'm gonna hedge my 2u bet on al. after watching the first fight once more, it's clear that lee is a different fighter now and should win.
Lee by sub
Font by dec
Olivera by sub
Barboza by dec (tko?)
 
Whats with Barboza going to ATT as well.
I didn't know that. Good for him. I can't remember fighter who went there and got worse, all of them improve their game, even if it is by a little bit.

I never liked Barbosa. Always rooted against him. Still remember his awful to watch fight with King Green... He is one of the most boring fighters I can name in the UFC now. When he lose he is not boring, tho. When he wins it's circle circle circle, kick - repeat. His boxing is atrocious. Ok, maybe not that bad, but it's not a highlight of his skills. If he was even a tiny bit dangerous with his hands it could set up his kicks very well and he be headkicking people into oblivion left and right. Very athletic man, but will never be something more than a gatekeeper. Especially not picking and choosing his battles, who the fuck told him it's good idea to fight Lee right after Khabib?
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Sounds good to me. I'm gonna hedge my 2u bet on al. after watching the first fight once more, it's clear that lee is a different fighter now and should win.
Lee by sub
Font by dec
Olivera by sub
Barboza by dec (tko?)

no idea about how Barboza will win. I can see him KOing Hooker or winning by decision. Similar to Ortega, Hooker seems a bit too hyped up. He has never faced anyone of Barboza's caliber.
I also think hedging is always a good idea contrary to what some people may believe. On UFC 231, I was leaning slightly towards Manuwa so I hedged that with a Santos parlay.

Martial Arts - 24029 Elias Theodorou -125 for Game
Martial Arts - 24006 Valentina Shevchenko -330 for Game
Martial Arts - 24010 Thiago Santos -220 for Game
Martial Arts - 24038 Aleksandar Rakic -530 for Game

I am happy that I hedged.
 
I didn't know that. Good for him. I can't remember fighter who went there and got worse, all of them improve their game, even if it is by a little bit.

I never liked Barbosa. Always rooted against him. Still remember his awful to watch fight with King Green... He is one of the most boring fighters I can name in the UFC now. When he lose he is not boring, tho. When he wins it's circle circle circle, kick - repeat. His boxing is atrocious. Ok, maybe not that bad, but it's not a highlight of his skills. If he was even a tiny bit dangerous with his hands it could set up his kicks very well and he be headkicking people into oblivion left and right. Very athletic man, but will never be something more than a gatekeeper. Especially not picking and choosing his battles, who the fuck told him it's good idea to fight Lee right after Khabib?
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Fighter's get worse all the time when they go to ATT, not saying ATT is the only reason they get worse but it happens. I think it's great when young prospects go to train at ATT but I don't share the same enthusiasm when a vet like Barboza joins the team, weird move at this point of his career. Barboza had been with Mark Henry and Ricardo Almedia for so many years while living in New Jersey. Now at 32 years old after a couple brutal losses he think it's time to go join ATT, like that is going to make anything better.

Like I said before, the guy has lost confidence in himself and his team and this move to ATT is some sort of career desperation.
 
Yeah I agree with what you're saying but I'd be scared to bet against Hooker right now. I tried with Burns and failed. There were plenty of reasons to think Burns was going to win that fight, it just shows how good Hooker is. No one has ever done anything like that to Burns.

Hooker's potential just seems to grow and grow at LW, just keeps looking impressive.

I think Barboza is more vulnerable than ever, his days as a contender are over, he'll never see a title shot, his career is kind of going no where. Now it's just about him fighting the guys on the way up, guys like Hooker who wanna take his spot. The camp change is also not a good look IMO

Barboza has taken 215 significant strikes to the head over his last two fights

I get the concerns regarding the damage Barboza has taken. Confidence could be a factor too, but stylistically, I think this is a very winnable fight for him.

Hooker has obviously looked great since the Knight fight and what he did to Burns was super impressive. But, if you look closer at how that fight played out, I'm not sure how relevant it is to this matchup, with Barboza being a completely different striker than Burns. Burns dropped his hands and loaded up a telegraphed right hand which Hooker countered nicely and dropped him. I don't think Burns ever fully recovered. Barboza's speed and footwork is worlds apart from Burns. He'll be looking to land his kicks and get out of range, not sit in the pocket exchanging haymakers.

I think the leg kicks could be major factor here as well. If Barboza can hamper Hooker's movement, he won't be able to pressure the way he needs to (he may not be able to anyway IMO) and he's going to be a sitting duck. I'm also not impressed with Hooker's defense, as I feel he does rely on his chin quite a bit which could leave openings for Barboza to land a big shot.
 
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