UFN 132 Cerrone vs Edwards

[Stunna77]

Agree with all your leans this time except for Eye of course, who I think is going to clearly outgrapple JRC (that is, up until the point she makes a boneheaded tactical error that possibly loses her the fight).

Looks like you and I are in this one together Turbo as I feel the same way. Pig will still win plenty of cash, he just has a small JCR dec bet .

 

[DevilsPt2]

more breakdowns for this week:

http://piglordmma.com/2018/06/20/ufc-fight-night-cerrone-vs-edwards-betting-predictions/

(if you liked my write ups i'd be eternally grateful for a twitter share #ufcsingapore)

I have never agreed with someone so much about a single card. I said I took 6 dogs and considered a 7th on like page 2, Cerrone, OSP, Abe, Arantes, Anzai and Yan, then I took Schnell as well. As far as favs, Young prob my fav. Sasaki should wreck Lausa but not for that ML price, like him ITD. Also ok with Clark by DEC. Yan is a near lock. Song - Aldana is a no for me right now, I'm sure I'll find a bet I like though.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

I have never agreed with someone so much about a single card. I said I took 6 dogs and considered a 7th on like page 2, Cerrone, OSP, Abe, Arantes, Anzai and Yan, then I took Schnell as well. As far as favs, Young prob my fav. Sasaki should wreck Lausa but not for that ML price, like him ITD. Also ok with Clark by DEC. Yan is a near lock. Song - Aldana is a no for me right now, I'm sure I'll find a bet I like though.

I think everyone(including me) here is favouring or betting Schnell. The price and his chances are great

 

[Stunna77]

at this odds I like Naoki Inoue I thought he would be around -400 against Schnell

I think everyone(including me) here is favouring or betting Schnell. The price and his chances are great

You do more tape or flip flop based on the forum?

 

[MT6ix]

Hey guys, anyone have any thoughts on Arantes vs Song?

I think Song will win but at the current odds which is essentially a pickem, I'm passing. I would have been on Song when he opened at +160 to +170.

Song throws with bad intentions, improving and throws more volume which will look good with the judges. It will be hard to knock out Arantes, Josh Emmett was landing some big right hands on Arantes and couldn't finish him, so he's pretty durable.

Song will be at a big reach disadvantage 73' inch to 67' inch reach and the smaller man, also he has fought a lower level of competition. Song is also overaggressive sometimes which could lead to him getting caught in a submission if it hits the ground.

If I'm betting Song, I'm hedging with an Arantes submission. Not worried about a Arantes decision because he doesn't throw combinations, just pot shots which won't look good with judges when Song is throwing and marching forward.

 

[piglord]

great stuff! no Sasaki/Lausa breakdown?

basically i think sasaki wins but i dislike the price and i'm not inclined to take a shot on lausa, so it's a pass for me.

 

[OutRun]

basically i think sasaki wins but i dislike the price and i'm not inclined to take a shot on lausa, so it's a pass for me.

Do you think he wins by decision? Cause there are good ITD, r1, r2 prices.

 

[Yotsuya]

Ok, I'm gonna stop being a dick (I realize that I am somewhat being one) but you surely have to agree that when you say something as retarded as his "numbers" post in a betting forum of all places you can expect to be called out, possibly by multiple individuals.

There’s a clear line between being critical and just putting someone down. That line was obviously crossed.

 

[piglord]

Do you think he wins by decision? Cause there are good ITD, r1, r2 prices.

yeah actually his itd could be playable, it definitely would have been at the +200 opener jeez.

 

[turbozed]

I think Song will win but at the current odds which is essentially a pickem, I'm passing. I would have been on Song when he opened at +160 to +170.

Song throws with bad intentions, improving and throws more volume which will look good with the judges. It will be hard to knock out Arantes, Josh Emmett was landing some big right hands on Arantes and couldn't finish him, so he's pretty durable.

Song will be at a big reach disadvantage 73' inch to 67' inch reach and the smaller man, also he has fought a lower level of competition. Song is also overaggressive sometimes which could lead to him getting caught in a submission if it hits the ground.

If I'm betting Song, I'm hedging with an Arantes submission. Not worried about a Arantes decision because he doesn't throw combinations, just pot shots which won't look good with judges when Song is throwing and marching forward.

I have a big bet on Arantes because I'm not sure if Song is at UFC level yet. He was a short notice replacement for his teammate Pingyuan Liu who actually was more successful at WLF (chinese regional). Song had lost twice to some Mongolian dude (second loss not listed on Tapology) and they were matching him up with 0-1 guys there. He did beat Edgars Skrivers which is a very legit victory though. Unfortunately, I can find nothing from that fight (not even an play by play). Maybe his training at TAM has paid dividends. He has been at TAM for the past 4 months or so and again last year for a couple of months. Still, not sure that he can hang with a BJJ brown belt that had guys like Filhi in trouble on the ground. All I see is him working pads on his insta posts.

Also, I think we are underestimating Arantes' performance against Emmett. Emmett came out and demolished Arantes in the first round but Arantes showed pretty damn good durability. IMO, he won the striking exchanges in Rd2 landing crisp punch combos and knees on Emmett and only possibly lost that round because of a late takedown. Rd3 was also a close tossup. Watch those last two rounds again and let me know if that changes your opinion. Maybe Yadong is a better striking now than Emmett but I highly doubt it. If the two are evenly matched on the feet, and Arantes is a better grappler, then it's hard to pick Song in this matchup.

 

[NorthernLights]

 

[Stunna77]

I have a big bet on Arantes because I'm not sure if Song is at UFC level yet. He was a short notice replacement for his teammate Pingyuan Liu who actually was more successful at WLF (chinese regional). Song had lost twice to some Mongolian dude (second loss not listed on Tapology) and they were matching him up with 0-1 guys there. He did beat Edgars Skrivers which is a very legit victory though. Unfortunately, I can find nothing from that fight (not even an play by play). Maybe his training at TAM has paid dividends. He has been at TAM for the past 4 months or so and again last year for a couple of months. Still, not sure that he can hang with a BJJ brown belt that had guys like Filhi in trouble on the ground. All I see is him working pads on his insta posts.

Also, I think we are underestimating Arantes' performance against Emmett. Emmett came out and demolished Arantes in the first round but Arantes showed pretty damn good durability. IMO, he won the striking exchanges in Rd2 landing crisp punch combos and knees on Emmett and only possibly lost that round because of a late takedown. Rd3 was also a close tossup. Watch those last two rounds again and let me know if that changes your opinion. Maybe Yadong is a better striking now than Emmett but I highly doubt it. If the two are evenly matched on the feet, and Arantes is a better grappler, then it's hard to pick Song in this matchup.

On re-watch it certainly looked like Emmett was taking parts of rd2 off as he exerted a lot of energy going for the finish on multiple occasions in rd1. I thought it was still a clear 30-26, but Emmett is a beast. Arantes seemed to struggle with Emmett's movement and boxing, which is where I think YaDong "the thong" Song can find success. He may come in with a similar gameplan to Emmett and utilize late takedowns to seal rounds, while not giving Arantes time to work his dangerous guard game. Artantes is more flash than substance on the feet for me, with his step in knee being his most dangerous weapon. I played Song for 1u at +175, probably a pass for me at current odds.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

@Stunna77 To be honest the first post you qouted was before I saw Matts last fight. He impressed me against Beltran plus I read some good info on the board and thats why I changed my mind about the fight. I overrated Naoki

 

[MT6ix]

I have a big bet on Arantes because I'm not sure if Song is at UFC level yet. He was a short notice replacement for his teammate Pingyuan Liu who actually was more successful at WLF (chinese regional). Song had lost twice to some Mongolian dude (second loss not listed on Tapology) and they were matching him up with 0-1 guys there. He did beat Edgars Skrivers which is a very legit victory though. Unfortunately, I can find nothing from that fight (not even an play by play). Maybe his training at TAM has paid dividends. He has been at TAM for the past 4 months or so and again last year for a couple of months. Still, not sure that he can hang with a BJJ brown belt that had guys like Filhi in trouble on the ground. All I see is him working pads on his insta posts.

Also, I think we are underestimating Arantes' performance against Emmett. Emmett came out and demolished Arantes in the first round but Arantes showed pretty damn good durability. IMO, he won the striking exchanges in Rd2 landing crisp punch combos and knees on Emmett and only possibly lost that round because of a late takedown. Rd3 was also a close tossup. Watch those last two rounds again and let me know if that changes your opinion. Maybe Yadong is a better striking now than Emmett but I highly doubt it. If the two are evenly matched on the feet, and Arantes is a better grappler, then it's hard to pick Song in this matchup.

I think Song is UFC level but his victory over Kandare doesn't say a whole lot.

As I mentioned before at current odds, Song is a pass for me at pickem odds, but a bet @ +160 to +170 opening odds.

I don't like the reach disadvantage, size difference , big step up in competition and his overaggressive which could lead to a submission, it's his nature to be really aggressive.

I just feel that if it hit's the scorecards, Song will win because Arantes is too durable to knockout and Arantes doesn't throw enough. Also when Arantes gets pressured, he likes fighting off his back foot too much and Song pressures. I like an Arantes submission hedge.

In Josh Emmett fight, he kept falling for Emmett's feints which led to getting hit by big rights. Later rounds, he adapted to it. Aside from Emmett fights he still shows a tendency to get hit.

It's a pass for me at current odds.

 

[ChoKuRei]

Not really sure what everyone is seeing in Matt Schnell.

After watching some tape I feel like Naoki’s competition hasn’t been so great, but he’s been doing exactly what he should be doing, either finishing all his lesser opponents or getting a unanimous decision over them.

I honestly don’t even feel like Schnell has a striking advantage especially with that chin of his. I have this glaring memory of Hector Sandoval dropping Schnell and tapping his chin with hammerfists, putting him completely out.

His best win is a unanimous over Marco Beltran, he has not only lost to greater competition but gotten finished in the very first round each time, .... feel like he settles at +140ish but still don’t even feel confident enough to bite that @ +160.

I know Naoki fights out of a hole in the wall gym in Japan, fought trash competition.. but still he hasn’t even gone to a split decision. All finishes or unanimous dec.. every time Schnell steps up he fails Badly.. I see him getting out struck and outgrappled here too... maybe even getting finished in the first round again.

Just my opinions I’ll pass on this one I think.. if I’m missing anything feel free to reply although I’ll be cruising back in the thread to see what’s up

 

[turbozed]

I think Song is UFC level but his victory over Kandare doesn't say a whole lot.

As I mentioned before at current odds, Song is a pass for me at pickem odds, but a bet @ +160 to +170 opening odds.

I don't like the reach disadvantage, size difference , big step up in competition and his overaggressive which could lead to a submission, it's his nature to be really aggressive.

I just feel that if it hit's the scorecards, Song will win because Arantes is too durable to knockout and Arantes doesn't throw enough. Also when Arantes gets pressured, he likes fighting off his back foot too much and Song pressures. I like an Arantes submission hedge.

In Josh Emmett fight, he kept falling for Emmett's feints which led to getting hit by big rights. Later rounds, he adapted to it. Aside from Emmett fights he still shows a tendency to get hit.

It's a pass for me at current odds.

How do you feel about him getting outboxed and outstruck in 2 consecutrive fights by Renat Onder (0-2 at the time) in WLF just 1.5 years ago?

WLF EPIC 9 vs Renat Ondar (0-2)



WLF WARS 10 vs Renat Ondar (1-2 rematch)



To be fair, Ondar looks to be a pretty decent fighter. But do you think 1.5 years of training is enough to go from losing to a 0-2 guy to UFC level comparable to Josh Emmett? I suppose it is possible, but I'd have to see more than a few minutes of it versus Khandare who is terrible. Very few guys in the UFC just stand there and let a wide right hand land like that.

Vast improvement will be necessary for Yadong to even compete imo. But Faber's faith in the guy (called him "our Chinese guy" and traveled to Singapore to support him and Teruto) has me a bit worried. I expect his striking to be improved, but I'm not sure he could've improved both striking and grappling in 1.5 years.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

How do you feel about him getting outboxed and outstruck in 2 consecutrive fights by Renat Onder (0-2 at the time) in WLF just 1.5 years ago?

WLF EPIC 9 vs Renat Ondar (0-2)



WLF WARS 10 vs Renat Ondar (1-2 rematch)



To be fair, Ondar looks to be a pretty decent fighter. But do you think 1.5 years of training is enough to go from losing to a 0-2 guy to UFC level comparable to Josh Emmett? I suppose it is possible, but I'd have to see more than a few minutes of it versus Khandare who is terrible. Very few guys in the UFC just stand there and let a wide right hand land like that.

Vast improvement will be necessary for Yadong to even compete imo. But Faber's faith in the guy (called him "our Chinese guy" and traveled to Singapore to support him and Teruto) has me a bit worried. I expect his striking to be improved, but I'm not sure he could've improved both striking and grappling in 1.5 years.

The only thing with Arantes what worries me, is his ground game. Song is a young fighter and he will be improving every fight. If his tdd is on point in this fight, he will win. He has a advantage in striking and on the other side, I dont remember if Felipes wrestling is that good, correct me if im wrong.

 

[turbozed]

The only thing with Arantes what worries me, is his ground game. Song is a young fighter and he will be improving every fight. If his tdd is on point in this fight, he will win. He has a advantage in striking and on the other side, I dont remember if Felipes wrestling is that good, correct me if im wrong.

So would you agree that in 1.5 years Song had indeed improved his striking to the point where he went from losing to a 0-2 fighter in pure striking to being at Emmett's level? Which fight or fights in particular since the Ondar fights made you think that? I'd like to watch them again and see if I agree with your opinion, so please be specific.

 

[Yotsuya]

Not really sure what everyone is seeing in Matt Schnell.

After watching some tape I feel like Naoki’s competition hasn’t been so great, but he’s been doing exactly what he should be doing, either finishing all his lesser opponents or getting a unanimous decision over them.

I honestly don’t even feel like Schnell has a striking advantage especially with that chin of his. I have this glaring memory of Hector Sandoval dropping Schnell and tapping his chin with hammerfists, putting him completely out.

His best win is a unanimous over Marco Beltran, he has not only lost to greater competition but gotten finished in the very first round each time, .... feel like he settles at +140ish but still don’t even feel confident enough to bite that @ +160.

I know Naoki fights out of a hole in the wall gym in Japan, fought trash competition.. but still he hasn’t even gone to a split decision. All finishes or unanimous dec.. every time Schnell steps up he fails Badly.. I see him getting out struck and outgrappled here too... maybe even getting finished in the first round again.

Just my opinions I’ll pass on this one I think.. if I’m missing anything feel free to reply alough I’ll be cruising back in the thread to see what’s up

Schnell was a fearless and gritty underdog against Sandoval and Font until his chin failed. I don’t think Inoue will be able to overwhelm him by high pace scrambles like he’s done to his opponents so far. Schnell had taken a ton of damage before Sandoval’s hammerfists took him out. Inoue’s striking has so far been more about distracting the opponent / to score points than to do damage. I suppose Inoue can hurt him if there’s a brawl, but his chin is untested at this level, so he will be in danger too. Schnell seems to have more power and far more dangerous combinations. I think he should actually be ok unless Inoue lands a knee in clinch.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

To be fair to Schnell, the knee Font landed would have hurt most 135ers. Also, as others have pointed out, Schnell cuts to 125 and Naoki weighed in at 124 against CJ so likely doesn't cut as much weight thus Schnell might have a bit of a weight advantage. A little speculative but, not a totally unreasonable assumption.