- Joined
- Apr 26, 2006
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Your analysis was very thoughtful and good (as usual), but with one fatal flaw. You implied that Ostovich has any kind of grappling, size, or strength, when she sucks at all three. You nailed all of PVZ's defects, but you have to keep in mind that Ostovich has many of the same problems, if not worse.
I understand the desire to bet against a garbage, habitually overrated (betting-wise) fighter like VanZant, but Ostovich is like her slightly lousier Hawaiin doppelganger with far less toughness and shorter limbs, whether it's success at being an Instagram thot, choice of fighter husband, or abilities.
Ostovich is definitely bottom tier at 125. For how medicore she is, I think her TDs will be enough for PVZ. Ostovich has landed all of her TD attempts in the UFC (and in her TUF run IIRC) and they weren't sloppy head/arm throws but shots at the legs/hips, which PVZ would probably have a harder time defending based on her striking stance.
Ostovich's striking isn't too bad either. She landed pretty heavy looking overhand rights against Fabian, Honchak, and Montana. I trust Ostovich to land better punches in the pcoket as PVZ isn't much of a puncher. She's either kicking at range or looking for a clinch. That style worked well against Chambers and Curran at 115, but I don't expect her to dominate anyone in the clinch at 125 (2nd biggest jump up in weightclass in UFC % wise). I can see PVZ maybe being successful in the clinch, but I don't see her playing keep away for 3 rounds given that she stops moving in striking distance. I don't love the bet but It's a lot less nauseating backing a lower tier girl like Ostovich when she's got a + next to her name.