UFN 146 on ESPN+ 4 Lewis vs Dos Santos

[edole]

I might play Kunitskaya by decision when it becomes available.

I listened to Reneau's interview with James lynch and she opened up her own academy and said her main training partner for this fight was a brown belt named Vanessa, but shes not sure of her last name....

41 years old - cant stay off her back.

Fade city.

 

[Dianabol]

Am I the only one who thinks Boestch should be favored?

Yes, he's 38 years old.

 

[Jordan3399]

Reneau NSC might be decent but she's 41, still has no idea how to wrestle and sucks at winning rounds. She was a good bet vs McMann cause McMann has zero heart and Reneau is a finisher but the Zingano fight showed she just isn't top level at all.

Took Kunitskya at -138 and will likely add to her dec line. As long as she can avoid Reneau's inevitable triangle and armbar attempts she should get an easy win.

 

[ill800]

Reneau NSC might be decent but she's 41, still has no idea how to wrestle and sucks at winning rounds. She was a good bet vs McMann cause McMann has zero heart and Reneau is a finisher but the Zingano fight showed she just isn't top level at all.

Took Kunitskya at -138 and will likely add to her dec line. As long as she can avoid Reneau's inevitable triangle and armbar attempts she should get an easy win.

So kunitskaya is going to outstrike her?

I’m struggling to see where exactly she has an advantage

 

[ClipYourDirtyWings]

Coming off my worst card since 2017 last night. Going to hit Zaleski for 3-4u, and leaning Dariush for 1-2. Other than that no idea yet. Feel good about Zaleski though.

 

[Jordan3399]

So kunitskaya is going to outstrike her?

I’m struggling to see where exactly she has an advantage

Kunitskya has decent enough striking to make it competitive but she can control Reneau pretty easily in the clinch and on the ground to a dull but one sided decision.

 

[LiquidNuke]

Dawson/Erosa is a fight with two of the most fragile chins around the weight. Neither one takes a shot very well...

 

[DevilsPt2]

I have 4 dogs I'm betting for sure, just waiting on better prices. Bet Lewis already and there is one other dog I'm looking at. Not sure what to think about Boetsch, Reneau and Smolka's fights but may end up playing the dogs there in some way but then again maybe I wont.

 

[Dianabol]

I have 4 dogs I'm betting for sure, just waiting on better prices. Bet Lewis already and there is one other dog I'm looking at. Not sure what to think about Boetsch, Reneau and Smolka's fights but may end up playing the dogs there in some way but then again maybe I wont.

The only dog I really like is Nico Price, I'm shocked by his current line. Tim Means is always overvalued though. Also think Lewis is a live dog but IDK if I'll take him.

My MO for this card is just to fade the hell out of all these old ass fighters like Marion, Boetsch, Rothwell.

Marion, 41 year old school teacher, can't wrestle and can't win a kickboxing match vs Yana
Boetsch, 38 years old, been on the decline for years, outmatched everywhere against the Dag IMO
Rothwell, 37 years old, 3 year layoff, doubt he's made for the USADA era, guy was a legit drug cheat

 

[piglord]

love boetsch as an underdog, went in at +175

 

[DevilsPt2]

The only dog I really like is Nico Price, I'm shocked by his current line. Tim Means is always overvalued though. Also think Lewis is a live dog but IDK if I'll take him.

My MO for this card is just to fade the hell out of all these old ass fighters like Marion, Boetsch, Rothwell.

Marion, 41 year old school teacher, can't wrestle and can't win a kickboxing match vs Yana
Boetsch, 38 years old, been on the decline for years, outmatched everywhere against the Dag IMO
Rothwell, 37 years old, 3 year layoff, doubt he's made for the USADA era, guy was a legit drug cheat

Yeah those old fghters have a lot of flags but I'm most intrigued by Boetsch and Rothwell. Boetsch has lost a lot of fights, he's lost them badly and hes lost them relatively recently but hes losing to really good competition the way those guys should beat him. I know thats cliche but Shoeface, Jacare, Rockhold and Leites subbing him? Cmon, thats not surprising. Getting KOed by Henderson is not surprising. Now his Herman and Philipou fights were kinda surprising. The guy knocked out Tavares which was surprising and him knocking out Hendricks surprised me but I know other people werent. They guy is very strong and is a real KO threat, hes also not a bad wrestler.

Rothwell if not for his layoff, age, milage and possible lack of steroids I would be pretty confident in betting, esp at dog money.

 

[chemmy]

The only dog I really like is Nico Price, I'm shocked by his current line. Tim Means is always overvalued though. Also think Lewis is a live dog but IDK if I'll take him.

My MO for this card is just to fade the hell out of all these old ass fighters like Marion, Boetsch, Rothwell.

Marion, 41 year old school teacher, can't wrestle and can't win a kickboxing match vs Yana
Boetsch, 38 years old, been on the decline for years, outmatched everywhere against the Dag IMO
Rothwell, 37 years old, 3 year layoff, doubt he's made for the USADA era, guy was a legit drug cheat

I’m not seeing how Akhmedov outclasses him anywhere in this fight. Age is a concern, but Boetch is the naturally bigger guy, with Akhmedov fighting 7 of his last 8 UFC fights at 170 lbs.

 

[edole]

Dawson/Erosa is a fight with two of the most fragile chins around the weight. Neither one takes a shot very well...

I havent seen all of Dawson's fights. Can you recommend a fight where his chin looked suspect?

 

[Dianabol]

I’m not seeing how Akhmedov outclasses him anywhere in this fight. Age is a concern, but Boetch is the naturally bigger guy, with Akhmedov fighting 7 of his last 8 UFC fights at 170 lbs.

Akhmedov has KO power, he's a better wrestler, better athlete and probably a better striker too. 7 years younger, still putting in work, been at ATT for the last 5 months. I'm glad he moved back to MW too, I think it's much better for his cardio and chin, I don't think he's a small MW either, he's filled out.

Boetsch is 38, way past him prime, can't even beat Ed Herman. The only guys he's beating are guys that are done and on their way out like Natal and Hendricks. Boetsch is a family man now, he's more interested in being a dad and having some BBQ's

Akmedov gets underrated, I remember cashing him as a +225 dog vs Alhassan. Boetsch is easy work IMO

 

[chemmy]

Akhmedov has KO power, he's a better wrestler, better athlete and probably a better striker too. 7 years younger, still putting in work, been at ATT for the last 5 months. I'm glad he moved back to MW too, I think it's much better for his cardio and chin, I don't think he's a small MW either, he's filled out.

Boetsch is 38, way past him prime, can't even beat Ed Herman. The only guys he's beating are guys that are done and on their way out like Natal and Hendricks. Boetsch is a family man now, he's more interested in being a dad and having some BBQ's

Akmedov gets underrated, I remember cashing him as a +225 dog vs Alhassan. Boetsch is easy work IMO

I cashed him at big plus money in that Alhassan fight too. I think Boetsch matches up pretty evenly with Akhmedov here though so the only side I’m looking at is the dog. You definitely make some valid points though.

 

[LiquidNuke]

I havent seen all of Dawson's fights. Can you recommend a fight where his chin looked suspect?

 

[edole]

So kunitskaya is going to outstrike her?

I’m struggling to see where exactly she has an advantage

Kunitskaya is a serviceable striker. She took down Cyborg twice and had some control time against her in the clinch against the cage. Reneau spends too much time on her back.

 

[Austisthunder]

If Daruish loses im gonna chimp the fuck out

 

[Naught2Sixty]

If Camacho can land a couple of TD's and top control against Dober, I don't see why Benny can't. Only trouble with that I see is Benny can get predictable with his shots if they arent successful. That's how Barboza caught him. Read the jab shoot jab shoot. Otherwise I see a decision win for Benny.

 

[Sham5916910]

The only dog I really like is Nico Price, I'm shocked by his current line. Tim Means is always overvalued though. Also think Lewis is a live dog but IDK if I'll take him.

My MO for this card is just to fade the hell out of all these old ass fighters like Marion, Boetsch, Rothwell.

Marion, 41 year old school teacher, can't wrestle and can't win a kickboxing match vs Yana
Boetsch, 38 years old, been on the decline for years, outmatched everywhere against the Dag IMO
Rothwell, 37 years old, 3 year layoff, doubt he's made for the USADA era, guy was a legit drug cheat

I get the difficulty trusting Means narrative i havent bet him since his Garcia fight. Had the two debacles with BC and just didnt seem to do enough in the Belal and Sergio fights. But in reality the Belal fight was very close, and he beat Sergio (MMA media scored it 13-1 Means). Sergio only got that as it was in Brazil. The td threat from Sergio probably played a part there, much like i think Garcia's td threat did too. But Means' tdd is pretty damn good now hes certainly worked on it a lot.

Regarding Niko he is on the same kinda level as Rainey, Homasi and Howard imo maybe slightly above them and look what Means did to all three. Niko is not good and hes chinny. Dropped by Morono, basically kod by Luque, hurt by Randy and potentially life altering ko last time against Razak. Whats Niko's path here? Ok he has power and the only path i see is a ko against a guy whos never been stopped. Niko's striking sucks was getting tooled by Morono until he started gassing. Randy Brown was on his way to winning until he got kod in the flukiest circumstances. I bet Niko over God awful George Sullivan and it was a horrible sweat. He was losing literally up until the point he finished. If i recall correctly Sullivan was outstriking him in the brief standup exchanges and i think he even stunned him. He isnt getting Means down in this fight Means can dictate where this fight goes and i think a standing ko from Means or gnp win like the Rainey fight are the two likeliest outcomes. I expect Means to walk thru this guy.