UFN 158 on ESPN+ 16 Cowboy vs Gaethje

[MrShady]

I'm on Cerrone. Jabs, body/head kick, knees....Gaethje is going down

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

Made some room on the Cowboy train for ya, O. Join us...

I’m hopping on boys

 

[Danis_champ]

Does not look "ill" here. I hope UFC releases this giant pussy because he is boring and refuses to fight. Apparently this is second time in a row. He was feeling ill because Vettori was about to kick his ass.

 

[Sadistics]

Any tape on Connolly anyone?

Recent stuff is behind a paywall, this is the most recent available that I could find.

Oct 2015


May 2019

 

[ApplesVild]

What is Justin talking about in that video, what's wrong with his eyes?

 

[Kyle Stephens]

I guess I'll be the only one on Cowboy?

I am on him because he is the underdog and I think there is some value. Keep in mind I am one of these guys that doesn't bet, but wander about betting threads for fun.

My thoughts about the fight itself: I agree with a lot of you guys. Cowboy not liking pressure is prolly gonna cost him again. But we have to specify what type of pressure he particulary doesn't like.

Typically pressure applied by guys vs who Cowboy can't rely on his reach to get out of trouble - long armed dudes who uses their full reach (straight punchers). And in addition to that, guys who can apply that pressure for longer time - until he breaks (endurance athletes). Vs shorter armed wrestlers with looping punches he does better. I will repeat - he doesn't like anybody to pressure him, doesn't matter what type of pressure, but some types of pressure he is a bit more suit to deal with.

Gaethje uses so high of a tempo and on top of that absorbs so much damage that he is often sapping his own energy more than his opponent's. So if he can't get rid off Cowboy inside of 2-3 rounds, there is very high chance he gets so tired by the 4th that can't defend himself and gets finished. A small detail that can turn out to be huge is that Justin uses a very high guard which is very susceptible for anything comming straight through the middle and below. It's an invitation for one of these Cowboy knees IMO. Not to mention bodykicks and bodypunches.

I personally still favour Justin to win, but not as much as his odds implies. Cowboy has a little of that bully mentality, he crumbles when you don't give him the fight that he wants. But I still like him. I always liked him because of his style. What more do you want - an exciting, technical kickboxer who fights every other month! Go Cowboy!!!

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Is marvin Vettori the blackest person in the UFC

 

[Deleted member 316645]

The talk is always more oversized than the bet.

Look at the last few events I've bet on, I'm on an incredible streak.

Keep making an ass out of yourself by assuming things, though.

I'm on Gaethje for 5 units. Cowboy has ways to win, and this is MMA, so I'm never going to throw down my entire bankroll on a fight.

But it's hard not to be incredibly confident in this play.

At the same time, I had Dillishaw against Cejudo at around the same odds, and same level of confidence. Shit happens.

 

[Blockbets]

Wiki cap

Connolly
Most his recent fights were booked for 5*5 rounds. So a guy who presumably has trained accordingly and been in pretty good shape.
Had a catchweight bout at 150 in 2011
Also a featherweight bout in 2011 weighing in at 145.
Came in at 180 for a middleweight bout in 2013.
Maybe his out of shape walking around weight.
Another featherweight in 2015 making 144.9
All lightweight since 2015

Clearly undersized for this one. Maybe could still make 145. Probably still a smaller 155 if not.

Taking on a huge welterweight who been taking middleweight bouts pre ufc.

Size isn’t everything but likely a factor here

 

[Blockbets]

https://mobile.twitter.com/mr_honky?lang=en

Connolly finishes

 

[MrShady]

@Invictus
Looks like the incredible win streak is about to end for one of us this weekend. I'm as confident in cerrone as you are Gaethje. Should be over by R3/4

 

[TrueAscension]

@Invictus
Looks like the incredible win streak is about to end for one of us this weekend. I'm as confident in cerrone as you are Gaethje. Should be over by R3/4

Or round 1- Gaethje makes a statement and will be in the conversation for a belt soon.

 

[MrShady]

Or round 1- Gaethje makes a statement and will be in the conversation for a belt soon.

Always a possibility. I rewatched Gaethje Barboza and Cerrone and Al and while Gaethje has the pressure game Cerrone is susceptible to, he's not a long range power striker and I believe that's where Cerrone will find success. Find the jabs and leg kicks, counter Gaethje's aggression and forward movement with well-timed knees and body/head kicks.

I think people are running with the old narrative of Round 1/slow starter Cerrone. He's gonna beat him like he did Al, who had no answers because Cerrone with a reach advantage is a different fighter imo

 

[Jordan3399]

Always a possibility. I rewatched Gaethje Barboza and Cerrone and Al and while Gaethje has the pressure game Cerrone is susceptible to, he's not a long range power striker and I believe that's where Cerrone will find success. Find the jabs and leg kicks, counter Gaethje's aggression and forward movement with well-timed knees and body/head kicks.

I think people are running with the old narrative of Round 1/slow starter Cerrone. He's gonna beat him like he did Al, who had no answers because Cerrone with a reach advantage is a different fighter imo

Iaquinta did a terrible job of consistently pressuring and let Cowboy get into his rhythm at range early. The length certainly didn't help but Al had plenty of options available that he just didn't go to.

Wouldn't count on him doing well there as a guarantee of success here when Gaethje will definitely pressure and use more tools to keep Cowboy uncomfortable.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

I am on him because he is the underdog and I think there is some value. Keep in mind I am one of these guys that doesn't bet, but wander about betting threads for fun.

My thoughts about the fight itself: I agree with a lot of you guys. Cowboy not liking pressure is prolly gonna cost him again. But we have to specify what type of pressure he particulary doesn't like.

Typically pressure applied by guys vs who Cowboy can't rely on his reach to get out of trouble - long armed dudes who uses their full reach (straight punchers). And in addition to that, guys who can apply that pressure for longer time - until he breaks (endurance athletes). Vs shorter armed wrestlers with looping punches he does better. I will repeat - he doesn't like anybody to pressure him, doesn't matter what type of pressure, but some types of pressure he is a bit more suit to deal with.

Gaethje uses so high of a tempo and on top of that absorbs so much damage that he is often sapping his own energy more than his opponent's. So if he can't get rid off Cowboy inside of 2-3 rounds, there is very high chance he gets so tired by the 4th that can't defend himself and gets finished. A small detail that can turn out to be huge is that Justin uses a very high guard which is very susceptible for anything comming straight through the middle and below. It's an invitation for one of these Cowboy knees IMO. Not to mention bodykicks and bodypunches.

I personally still favour Justin to win, but not as much as his odds implies. Cowboy has a little of that bully mentality, he crumbles when you don't give him the fight that he wants. But I still like him. I always liked him because of his style. What more do you want - an exciting, technical kickboxer who fights every other month! Go Cowboy!!!

I agree, I'm not sure whether I'll pull the trigger on betting Cowboy, but I think he has a path to victory. It's not as if everyone Cerrone has beaten haven't tried to pressure him, he's just been able to deal with it in a lot of cases. I don't think Justin brings the kind of fucked up pressure Tony brings where offence is coming from all angles. Cowboy might well be able to deal with this pressure, and if he can start picking Gaethje off as he comes forward, it's not as if he can't hurt him.

 

[longway]

Just wondering what people think. I found the Hall v Shoeface line way too wide after reviewing tape. Hall's style is unbettable as he tends to lose rounds, but I find hard to see Shoeface subbing Hall, as Hall's defensive BJJ is pretty sound, and his overall ground game is decent, and his TDD is pretty good. So I took Hall ML 0.5U at nearly +200 and Shoeface by decision 0.4U at +450. I think I got 80% of the outcomes covered at least. Good betting or not?

 

[Deleted member 560591]

while Gaethje has the pressure game Cerrone is susceptible to, he's not a long range power striker and I believe that's where Cerrone will find success. Find the jabs and leg kicks, counter Gaethje's aggression and forward movement with well-timed knees and body/head kicks.

The Barboza fight showed us that he is very capable of fighting at distance even though it was short sequences we saw. He basically beat Barboza at kicking. Justin timed his kicks very well and made Barboza insecure right away. Most importantly it seems like Gaethje has a jab now lol. He covers distance while taking less damage. A smarter fighting Gaethje is a top 3 fighter imo and Cowboy is not top 3 even at his best.

His defence is also not guarding up and ducking anymore which made it so easy for Eddie Alvarez to land on him constantly. He moves his head now and Gaethje has pretty good technique in general actually.

He's gonna beat him like he did Al, who had no answers because Cerrone with a reach advantage is a different fighter imo

Iaquinta didn’t pressure much at all. It wasn’t really a reach thing. Gaethje will move forward for sure and that will be tough for Cerrone, no matter how better he got moving backwards. Hernandez had some success even though he lost. Gaethje hits hard and pushes forward constantly. The leg kicks could be determining this fight as well.

 

[DevilsPt2]

Sounds like we're going to end up with very similar bets

Yup, looks like it, I played Cirkunov as well. You got much better odds than I did on every bet though.

I would advise people here to stay away from betting Duffee vs. Hughes.

Hughes is a very average fighter, but he has okay striking defense, and some wrestling. Duffee? Who the hell knows how good he is after 4 years? Maybe he's better, worse, or about the same. There's no way to know.

Agreed, I'm glad Hughes is the fav so now I dont even have to consider betting him, I want nothing to do with that fight.

Why would you parlay -455 ?

Hit the inevitable under 2.5 instead

A good portion of Cerrones win condition will be in the later rounds though, if you want to play U2.5, I would suggest you just play Gaethje rd1 and 2. It's possible Cerrone could finish early but a finish n the first 2 favors Gaethje and a finish in the last 3 favors Cerrone. If Gaejthe doesnt finish Cerrone n the frst 2, odds heavily swng in Cerrones favor imo. I personally dont understand the super high confidence in Gaethje though, people are basically sayng he wins in rd1 or 2 and he does it 70% of the time.

 

[Sono07]

Just wondering what people think. I found the Hall v Shoeface line way too wide after reviewing tape. Hall's style is unbettable as he tends to lose rounds, but I find hard to see Shoeface subbing Hall, as Hall's defensive BJJ is pretty sound, and his overall ground game is decent, and his TDD is pretty good. So I took Hall ML 0.5U at nearly +200 and Shoeface by decision 0.4U at +450. I think I got 80% of the outcomes covered at least. Good betting or not?

I think Shoeface is sub or bust and honestly could see Hall win on the cards. Even with Hall's low volume style I like how he seems to pull opponents into his counters. I just don't see ACJ being a threat standing Tim Boetsch landed heavy on him before it went to the ground. I'd say ACJ inside the distance has a better chance than a decision.

 

[clemente]

Gaethje always gassed after first round, and those Cowboy kicks to the body are gonna just make it worse, he either gets a KO early, or Cowboy will just pick him apart.