UFN 95 - Cyborg vs Lansberg - Brazil

[EzFlyer]

Nover's getting smoked man. Just watched his fight with Nam what a fuckin robbery. I have no recollection of Nover fights but from watching the Nam fight he is a grappler correct with limited standup? Barao is impossible to take down very much like Aldo. Everyone wrote Aldo off before the Edgar fight and I expect a dominant display from Baroa who looked fine to me in the Stephens fight, especially up until he was rocked. This seems a horrible stylistic fight for Nover. Will watch his last fight later.

Oh, he should be 0-5 in the UFC.

I don't think you can say

'i have no recollection of nover fights'

and

'nover's getting smoked, man'

In the same post...

 

[vkram]

Watched Gregor Gillespie's last fight, which went to split decision. Obviously has very strong wrestling wrestling base, likes to take the back which sometimes leads to him losing position. Also, that fight shouldn't have been a split decision at all.

 

[rille31]

i think felder is coming out like a man possessed in this fight, I'm 100% on him and will add to a parlay to help get plus odds

Is that really correct, I actually think ufc fly in their own regular point officials

 

[Sham5916910]

I don't think you can say

'i have no recollection of nover fights'

and

'nover's getting smoked, man'

In the same post...

I just watched the Nam fight hence the reference to Nam being robbed.

 

[Oblivian]

I don't think you can say

'i have no recollection of nover fights'

and

'nover's getting smoked, man'

In the same post...

I think I'm actually going to be on "Not Barao ITD". Nover is not an easy guy to take out, and I think this fight may end up being more competitive than people think.

 

[Brick Top]

I personally think people are going overboard paying juice.

Hell, look at this last weekend. Yankovic and brown were getting bet still at like -450, etc. I don't mind saying this: terrible bets. They won, but terrible bets. Both couldve lost.

It hurts me saying this, cause I'm getting better prices as a result, but itd like people don't care what the odds are lately. They want to bet one side, they pay any price.

That's what the bookie wants...

I didn't play Brown or Belal last weekend because I didn't see any value there, especially with a green fighter like Brown but I honestly think Nelson, Barao and Santos have value. They are all squash matches.

Do you think they only win their fights 50% of the time? I think it's much higher, so there's value there. There was no value on Brown at all, he should have been like -200 if not higher like I expected him to

 

[vkram]

I didn't play Brown or Belal last weekend because I didn't see any value there, especially with a green fighter like Brown but I honestly think Nelson, Barao and Santos have value. They are all squash matches.

Do you think they only win their fights 50% of the time? I think it's much higher, so there's value there. There was no value on Brown at all, he should have been like -200 if not higher like I expected him to

Don't think there is value on Nelson, it's HW after all and Nelson hasn't has 1 win in nearly 2 and a half years. Maybe Nelson round 1 or Nelson KO if the odds are good (which I doubt).

 

[piglord]

i think felder is coming out like a man possessed in this fight, I'm 100% on him and will add to a parlay to help get plus odds

i've been watching some tape. i think felder crushes trinaldo if he comes to brawl like he did against yancy. still, trinaldo's slip and rip strategy against ross pearson was really smart and if he does something similar against felder, he could really frustrate him.

that being said, ross pearson has no ability to adjust his gameplan midfight and needs to be at boxing range to be effective. felder is much more dynamic and should be able to land even if trinaldo is on his bike.

moreso, trinaldo fades badly in fights. i could see him winning round 1 against the cage and then getting outstruck in 2 and 3 to a clear dec for felder. pick 'em odds would be fair so i think there's some value in felder.

 

[Bork Lazer]

Bigfoot EZ LOL?

They had to do it in Brazil. Doubtful he'd be sanctioned in the northern hemisphere.

I've been watching, following, training, and betting on MMA for about 17 years. I'm trying to remember a more clear case of a completely shot fighter and right now...I'm coming up empty.

But...it is at HW if nothing else LOL

Sakuraba coming back to fight Aoki at Rizin's first event at the ripe old age of 47?

 

[Oblivian]

Don't think there is value on Nelson, it's HW after all and Nelson hasn't has 1 win in nearly 2 and a half years. Maybe Nelson round 1 or Nelson KO if the odds are good (which I doubt).

I'm personally playing the under 1.5 and then a tiny play on Bigfoot when odds get reduced. I think if it does go past 1.5, Bigfoot's chances go up quite a bit.

 

[piglord]

I didn't play Brown or Belal last weekend because I didn't see any value there, especially with a green fighter like Brown but I honestly think Nelson, Barao and Santos have value. They are all squash matches.

Do you think they only win their fights 50% of the time? I think it's much higher, so there's value there. There was no value on Brown at all, he should have been like -200 if not higher like I expected him to

i'm one of the biggest juice lords on the site and agree with you about yankova. i bet her because she looked hot with no research but it was a small stake. absolutely terrible bet.

based on the tape, brown/montano did look like a huge mismatch and brown clearly underperformed. that happens sometimes. i don't regret the bet but it's a reminder to be more careful about playing green prospects with large wagers.

i don't care that much about individual odds for parlays, i'm mainly looking to find 2-3 mismatches that returns approx even money. so long as you do your research and split the legit mismatches from the fights that merely look like mismatches based on the lines, i find the strategy to be successful.

obviously i still love dogs though. woof.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Talking about Bigfoot is depressing. Hearing multiple people wagering on him is more depressing lol so lets talk about a fight with zero conversation

Thoughts on Pepey vs De La Torre? I wanna watch some tape on De La Torre but initial lean is Pepey at -150 or better. Its a battle of the explosive guy with barely any skills against the skilled jiu jitsu guy with zero fight IQ. But I don't think Pepey will be as lost here as he was against Elkins, and likely finds a sub.

 

[mkess101]

Sorry Joe B LOL but another point about Bigfoot: it's not just that his chin looks totally shot (which it does). Robbie also mentioned his large head making a large target (it is). It's also how much these KO's have deteriorated his reflexes. Getting put away all these times doesn't just make his chin shot. It also makes him more likely to get hit in the first place.

Guys who've never had good chins but are younger and still have striking defense and can see punches coming and slip them is one thing. Their chin may be crap but maybe they avoid getting hit enough to get by sometimes. Not only does BF look to have a totally shot chin, he also looks like he has no chance to actually avoid being hit as well.

That's a really bad combination...

 

[Oblivian]

Talking about Bigfoot is depressing. Hearing multiple people wagering on him is more depressing lol so lets talk about a fight with zero conversation

Thoughts on Pepey vs De La Torre? I wanna watch some tape on De La Torre but initial lean is Pepey at -150 or better. Its a battle of the explosive guy with barely any skills against the skilled jiu jitsu guy with zero fight IQ. But I don't think Pepey will be as lost here as he was against Elkins, and likely finds a sub.

ITD. Pepey either gets blasted standing or catches a sub.

 

[vkram]

Talking about Bigfoot is depressing. Hearing multiple people wagering on him is more depressing lol so lets talk about a fight with zero conversation

Thoughts on Pepey vs De La Torre? I wanna watch some tape on De La Torre but initial lean is Pepey at -150 or better. Its a battle of the explosive guy with barely any skills against the skilled jiu jitsu guy with zero fight IQ. But I don't think Pepey will be as lost here as he was against Elkins, and likely finds a sub.

Pepey submission and/or Pepey round 1 will probably be the best plays here. Pepey had Elkins in some dangerous positions early on too.

 

[SalvadorAllende]

I see Trinaldo vs Felder being a close fight. Both guys tend to fight at their opponent level, specially Felder.

Regarding Felder, despite his total destruction of Danny Castillo he has not impressed me at all in the UFC.
He had a lot of close fights (SD Saggo, Barboza, Felder even Burkman fight was kind of close).
His only two finishes are against Castillo and a real late against Daron C.

Trinaldo is a game fither and can put a fight against most of guys. He is not easy to finish and hardly puts him self in dangerous positions during fights. He has been looking better lately (6 fight winning streak!!!) but I cant help to think that father time is going to catch him from one day to another. He turned 38 last month.

I think this fight goes over 2.5 most of the time.

And as I have a shitty bookies site I dont have a single bet available for this card for now... so I dont know the odds but I would play it at 1/3 (-333) or even a little higher (dont know where is at right now).



Agree with most of you guys in that there are a lot of squash matches here. They are just pleasing JBG and brazilians fans on this card. Pure show but shit happens.
I will get the worst odds in the world for this card tho... the other bookie site in my country only have Cyborg fight availble (Cyborg -1000, the other girl +485).

 

[Brick Top]

Don't think there is value on Nelson, it's HW after all and Nelson hasn't has 1 win in nearly 2 and a half years. Maybe Nelson round 1 or Nelson KO if the odds are good (which I doubt).

Look at who he's fought

 

[vkram]

Look at who he's fought

Thats true but he didn't look great even in his win vs Rosholt. I definitely think Nelson wins this, probably in the first round but at his current odds there is just no value in him.

 

[SalvadorAllende]

Thats true but he didn't look great even in his win vs Rosholt. I definitely think Nelson wins this, probably in the first round but at his current odds there is just no value in him.

Roy and Bigfoot are pure fade material at this point. But Nelson ate huge bombs from Lewis and kept going. Bigfoot is the most shot fighter I have ever seen in the UFC.

I understand why people dont want to pay juice on Nelson tho... he is awful these days.

 

[piglord]

nover:

"I'm a full time registered nurse; I'm certified in cardiac cath. I work in a pretty intense environment. I assist interventional cardiologists. We put stents in people's hearts. I do that full time and along with that I'm training everyday. Before work, after work, during work I'm always training so I have no excuses. I'm always grinding, man."

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2016/8/3...t-renan-barao-is-a-135er-brazil-mma-interview