War Room OT Discussion v3

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waiguoren said:
The real experts are the bettors, so yeah, that's how betting odds work.

Who are the "experts" according to you? People like Nate Silver? Ask @m52nickerson about that guy.
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They aren't actually saying who is the favorite or who they think is going to win , they are setting the line to get equal money on both sides ....thats how they win
 
AnGrYcRoW said:
They aren't actually saying who is the favorite or who they think is going to win , they are setting the line to get equal money on both sides ....thats how they win
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You need to brush up on this subject.

The oddsmakers set the initial line, but subsequently the lines move in response to the money that comes in on each side.
 
Limbo Pete said:
I remember some betting site paying out on Hillary before the election was even over lmao
Experts my ass hahahaha
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I would actually be interested in seeing Paddy Power's analysis behind their decision to pay out ~1 million early at a discounted rate. It was probably a really smart move on average. It paid off for them with Obama in '12.
 
waiguoren said:
You need to brush up on this subject.

The oddsmakers set the initial line, but subsequently the lines move in response to the money that comes in on each side.
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Ya .....
 
Masterpiece Cakeshop, Ltd. v. Colorado Civil Rights Commission has reached the Supreme Court. Interesting case imo.
 
waiguoren said:
The real experts are the bettors, so yeah, that's how betting odds work.

Who are the "experts" according to you? People like Nate Silver? Ask @m52nickerson about that guy.
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About Nate Silver, he is a great statistician. Don't think because you got closer in a few states during our bet Nate Silver does not know what he is doing. Far more likely you got lucky.

@AnGrYcRoW
 
m52nickerson said:
About Nate Silver, he is a great statistician. Don't think because you got closer in a few states during our bet Nate Silver does not know what he is doing. Far more likely you got lucky.

@AnGrYcRoW
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If I beat him again in 2020, will you say the same thing? How many times do I have to beat him before you acknowledge I'm just better than him?
 
Fellas, don't forget to vote in the OT Ugg Off

http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/who-is-uglier-john-wang-vs-pupi-gifs-of-hot-chicks-inside.3671611/

Vote for @John Wang as one of the ugliest humans on sherdog

image.jpg
 
waiguoren said:
If I beat him again in 2020, will you say the same thing? How many times do I have to beat him before you acknowledge I'm just better than him?
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Did Nate Silver bang your girl or something lol
 
Limbo Pete said:
Did Nate Silver bang your girl or something lol
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Nate Silver and I banged your mom in 1947 when she was still a 5. Then Nate screwed everything up by finishing too fast. I never forgave him.
 
waiguoren said:
If I beat him again in 2020, will you say the same thing? How many times do I have to beat him before you acknowledge I'm just better than him?
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Was your one-way competition with him done independently, or did you take the 50/50 chance of being closer to the result than him, knowing his prediction?
 
Fawlty said:
Was your one-way competition with him done independently, or did you take the 50/50 chance of being closer to the result than him, knowing his prediction?
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To be fair, you can probably do better than 50/50 if you pick and choose the four predictions you want to challenge ahead of time.
 
Quipling said:
To be fair, you can probably do better than 50/50 if you pick and choose the four predictions you want to challenge ahead of time.
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hmm, sounds like some extreme cherrypicking. I'm too lazy to dig through the search tome to find the terms of that one.
 
Fawlty said:
Was your one-way competition with him done independently, or did you take the 50/50 chance of being closer to the result than him, knowing his prediction?
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I made my figures based on his. I took his best, and made them better.
 
waiguoren said:
I made my figures based on his. I took his best, and made them better.
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Not impressed, based on that. It takes far less expertise and intelligence to find flaws in an expert's work than it does to produce an original work that is subject to criticism. You should stop pretending you're above him. You're not nearly as intelligent as you think. You're obviously not close to stupid, but you're probably not in the top 10% here.
 
Fawlty said:
Was your one-way competition with him done independently, or did you take the 50/50 chance of being closer to the result than him, knowing his prediction?
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By the way, I'm quite sure I would have beaten him regardless. I facepalm when I see people talk Silver up. His election work is little more than poll aggregation + weighting.

Maybe he was some kind of brilliant baseball analyst, but he's nothing special when it comes to politics.
 
Fawlty said:
You're not nearly as intelligent as you think. You're obviously not close to stupid, but you're probably not in the top 10% here.
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If you ever find the balls to challenge me to a mutually agreeable bet, you will discover my true place in the hierarchy.
 
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