Why JAILTON ALMEIDA is the slight favourite against curtis?

[BonesWinckleJones]

60% of his wins by sub,curtis is the best wrestler in hw how can jailton win?

 

[achoo42]

The difference is that Derrick Lewis knocked out Curtis Blaydes but couldn't hurt Jailton Almeida.

I'm not saying that this makes sense, but it's a reason why Almeida might be the favorite.

 

[meast]

all the rest of his wins are by KO besides his l

 

[OldFashion]

Blaydes wrestling is hella overrated. Almeida is the much better grappler.

 

[BonesWinckleJones]

The difference is that Derrick Lewis knocked out Curtis Blaydes but couldn't hurt Jailton Almeida.

it was a perfect uppercut,can jailton punch any close to that?

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

I agree that Blaydes should be fav; but, has had injuries which is harder for HW to come back from and has had his brain scrambled a few times.

 

[Croton]

I'm surprised he's not a bigger favorite tbh,

 

[achoo42]

it was a perfect uppercut,can jailton punch any close to that?

It's not about Jailton being able to land it. It's that Derrick could land it on Blaydes but couldn't on Jailton. That's what the bettors see.

 

[Levi_]

Terrible responses lately on Sherdog, worse than usual.

The difference is that Derrick Lewis knocked out Curtis Blaydes but couldn't hurt Jailton Almeida.

You realize that matchups matter and MMAth is faulty, right? Yes, Blaydes has been vulnerable to hard punchers. Problem is: Almedia is nothing of the sort. Other than fighting Lewis, his opponents have been utter cans. The ability to hold people down with no other notable abilities will only take you so far in MMA these days.

 

[Qwerty1]

Maybe heavyweight wrestling just isn't that good and I know Blaydes has accolades in it but his grappling does not impress.

 

[achoo42]

Terrible responses lately on Sherdog, worse than usual.

You realize that matchups matter and MMAth is faulty, right? Yes, Blaydes has been vulnerable to hard punchers. Problem is: Almedia is nothing of the sort. Other than fighting Lewis, his opponents have been utter cans. The ability to hold people down with no other notable abilities will only take you so far in MMA these days.

I have no idea, personally, who is going to win. But if you look at their shared opponents, Jailton Almeida did much better. That is my guess for why the odds are the way they are, which are mostly influenced by how other people bet.

So no, it's not a terrible response. It is a perfectly reasonable response. People betting see, "Blaydes lost to Lewis, Almeida beat Lewis" and bet accordingly. That's not necessarily sound logic but that's a possibility for why the odds are what they are.

 

[Levi_]

You do realize that, if two guys have never fought each other, the main way of deciding the ODDS are by MMath, right?

I have no idea, personally, who is going to win. But if you look at their shared opponents, Jailton Almeida did much better. That is my explanation for the odds, which are mostly influenced by how other people bet.

So no, it's not a terrible response. It is a perfectly reasonable response. People betting see, "Blaydes lost to Lewis, Almeida beat Lewis" and bet accordingly. That's not necessarily sound logic but that's why the odds are what they are.

That's why you THINK the odds are that way; there are a lot of reasons people make the bets they do. That isn't a reliable as an identified 'most common' betting strategy; the odds don't consistently reflect that.

That is obviously an atrocious way to pick fights (or any sport) because it ignores the specific matchups as well as overall context, which are the most important thing. This is a bad matchup for Almeida. In ANY sport, fighter/team A may be able to beat fighter/team B, and fighter/team B may be able to beat fighter/team C, but that DOES NOT follow that team A can necessarily beat team C.

 

[xhaydenx]

The difference is that Derrick Lewis knocked out Curtis Blaydes but couldn't hurt Jailton Almeida.

Blaydes got caught when he went for naked shot in a fight where Blaydes had been dominating easily on the feet with his boxing.

Jailton doesn't have that sort of power or punch timing.

 

[WillyWill]

by being a better pure submission grappler and MMA grappler. And by being tenacious. Very winnable

 

[CatchtheseHands]

Because Curt has the tendency to shit the bed in match ups he should win on paper. Most of the big fights he lost have been because his IQ just decides to not show up that night. Like trying to trade with Sergei and shooting on Derrick without set up

 

[AndrewGolota48]

That's why you THINK the odds are that way; there are a lot of reasons people make the bets they do. That isn't a reliable as an identified 'most common' betting strategy; the odds don't consistently reflect that.

That is obviously an atrocious way to pick fights (or any sport) because it ignores the specific matchups as well as overall context, which are the most important thing. This is a bad matchup for Almeida. In ANY sport, fighter/team A may be able to beat fighter/team B, and fighter/team B may be able to beat fighter/team C, but that DOES NOT follow that team A can necessarily beat team C.

I completely agree about this matchup, another recent example would be Josh Emmet as the underdog vs Bryce Mitchell. You have a fighter whose style will be completely nullified by the ability of the opponent, but is still the favorite due to overall performance, MMAth, or other factors like age, win streak, etc.

But with Blaydes it's always scary because you feel like he can get caught with a wild haymaker at any time.

 

[sdpdude9]

How many guys have tried to take Blaydes down? Volkov, Daniel Omielanczyk, and Cody East. They went 4/6 in attempts.

 

[WillyWill]

Maybe heavyweight wrestling just isn't that good and I know Blaydes has accolades in it but his grappling does not impress.

for real. Ive trined with so many legit college wrestlers who steamroll white up through bue belts, but when they go against someone who can lay some traps they start taking the bait. The big one is exposing their backs. Even when they start being offensive machines they still cant seem to break that.

 

[WillyWill]

Terrible responses lately on Sherdog, worse than usual.

You realize that matchups matter and MMAth is faulty, right? Yes, Blaydes has been vulnerable to hard punchers. Problem is: Almedia is nothing of the sort. Other than fighting Lewis, his opponents have been utter cans. The ability to hold people down with no other notable abilities will only take you so far in MMA these days.

well Francis became champ while having about the opposite but till as limited skill set as Almeida. But i admit i am completely unsure and cant WSIT to see this fight whole crd is stacked

 

[Dr Fong]

Blaydes will win this easily.

And if he doesn't I'll just claim I picked Almeida all along.