Why John Danaher is wrong about randomness in striking and "punchers chance" compared to grappling

[Enclave]

John Danaher made the point that a fair inferior athlete and fighter can still win via KO with the so called punchers chance in a striking bout. Grappling offers no such opportunity. Everything is fully earned.

I will argue that it's quite the opposite. It's in striking where there truly is no randomness. You can't KO Lennox Lewis, Adesanya or Mayweather via punchers chance.. Line amateurs up.. It's not going to happen..

If you take a high level striker and put him up against any tough guy who never trained striking, not only can't he hurt the striker, he can't touch him.

I know from doing both arts that grappling is far more innate than striking. You will always suck doing sparring for the first time against a black belt in striking, but grappling, and wrestling in particular you can get by if you are talented and big enough. Any outcome: submission, slam, stalling is possible.

So danaher has deduced based on one punch KOs that striking is more random than grappling, when it's due to either one of two things. A) the better striker falls asleep on the switch. Overconfident, arrogant, or tired. He simply doesn't care.

Or
B) neither striker know what they are doing. And so the entire excercise is random.

This entire concept of punchers chance does not mean that you can RANDOMLY KO a World champion. An elite striker understands range. You won't even be in position to hit him, unless he lets you.

Same between intermediate and brawler.

 

[CinemaKingdom]

Nah.

 

[crankyd'arce]

Cope

 

[Silverblur]

An elite competitor in any combat sport is almost never going to lose to an amateur, whether it's striking or grappling. The only exception that comes to mind is Bob Sapp beating Hoost. I don't think it's wrong to think the the skill gap needed to make an upset basically impossible is larger in striking than it is in grappling, especially if you specify that the upset needs to be a finish.

Edit; I will say that there is one exception; in grappling there is more opportunity for a specific hole in someone's game to lead to an upset, leg locks being the most obvious example. However, that's the result of a skill gap in favor of the underdog in one area, so I'm not sure it matters for this discussion.

 

[Enclave]

An elite competitor in any combat sport is almost never going to lose to an amateur, whether it's striking or grappling. The only exception that comes to mind is Bob Sapp beating Hoost. I don't think it's wrong to think the the skill gap needed to make an upset basically impossible is larger in striking than it is in grappling, especially if you specify that the upset needs to be a finish.

Edit; I will say that there is one exception; in grappling there is more opportunity for a specific hole in someone's game to lead to an upset, leg locks being the most obvious example. However, that's the result of a skill gap in favor of the underdog in one area, so I'm not sure it matters for this discussion.

A noob can scramble to get up from a takedown. Seen it in Gracie tapes.

 

[Enclave]

An elite competitor in any combat sport is almost never going to lose to an amateur, whether it's striking or grappling. The only exception that comes to mind is Bob Sapp beating Hoost. I don't think it's wrong to think the the skill gap needed to make an upset basically impossible is larger in striking than it is in grappling, especially if you specify that the upset needs to be a finish.

Edit; I will say that there is one exception; in grappling there is more opportunity for a specific hole in someone's game to lead to an upset, leg locks being the most obvious example. However, that's the result of a skill gap in favor of the underdog in one area, so I'm not sure it matters for this discussion.

My point is that punchers chance has been misconstrued by Danaher to mean any one punch chance. Which is false.

 

[Foppa21]

Respectfully disagree. For me it comes to timing/time spent.

I base it off this comment "not only can't he hurt the striker, he can't touch him". A grappler can be touched but it takes more movement to execute whatever it is they want to execute.

Fight/matchup starts. In striking you swing for the fences, your once chance. You either land or you do not, but in that split second, you've thrown your best shot and it's down to the "fighter" to not get hit. In grappling, you have to shoot (let's just say close the gap), establish whatever grip you want, let's go with the simplest which is grab yourself and execute the takedown/slam. That's a lot of time and space for the "fighter" to react and counter.

 

[Silverblur]

A noob can scramble to get up from a takedown. Seen it in Gracie tapes.

First of all, no disrespect to the early Gracies, but those guys were not even close to the level of grappling that the fighters you listed are at in striking. Secondly getting back to your feet doesn't score, let alone win a match, in submission grappling.

My point is that punchers chance has been misconstrued by Danaher to mean any one punch chance. Which is false.

I don't know what Danaher has said specifically on the subject, but the common sentiment that striking has more opportunity for an upset finish than grappling does is, I think, justified.

 

[TheMaster]

First of all, no disrespect to the early Gracies, but those guys were not even close to the level of grappling that the fighters you listed are at in striking.

A bit ridiculous to say that don't you think

Secondly getting back to your feet doesn't score, let alone win a match, in submission grappling.

A bigger stronger noob can takedown a more experienced grappler quite often also. They can also slam them from on top which will finish the fight on a harder surface, and both count in many grappling arts.

I don't know what Danaher has said specifically on the subject, but the common sentiment that striking has more opportunity for an upset finish than grappling does is, I think, justified.

Not really, I don't know if MMA is the best comparison since everyone cross trains. But put a big strong noob in with an elite stiker it's unlikely he will just KO him but its possible. It's also possible he can take a grappler to the limit just by brawling like we saw in Kimo vs Royce.
So while punchers chance is a thing, slammers chance and takedowns chance is also a thing.
Locking a sub obviously requires more knowledge but we saw people who were far inferior grapplers or basically strikers like Overeem tap superior grapplers with moves like guillotines not uncommonly either.

 

[Kforcer]

A bigger stronger noob can takedown a more experienced grappler quite often also.

I don't know how accurate that really is, unless it is a more experienced grappler who doesn't have a strong wrestling game. But you're not going to find a green football star walking into wrestling practice and ragdolling guys. There is generally a huge gulf between someone who knows how to wrestle and a guy who does not, even if that guy is big and strong.

I agree with you about the slam though. Slamming people out of submissions is something a strong, athletic, unskilled spazzy guy could definitely do to injure a skilled grappler seeking to control him. That's sort of the grappling equivalent of the lucky punch, in a way.

 

[yetanother]

First of all, no disrespect to the early Gracies, but those guys were not even close to the level of grappling that the fighters you listed are at in striking.

The early Gracies where not elite grapplers by any modern standard.
I would put money on the current nogi blue belt world champion Pixley over prime Rickson.

 

[ChickenBrother]

Defeating a more skilled but much smaller opponent via overwhelming size and strength is neither "puncher's chance" nor "grappler's chance." Bob Sapp over Ernesto Hoost x 2 wasn't puncher's chance, just like Brian Shaw tapping Poirier in a friendly roll wasn't "grappler's chance." Puncher's chance implies "getting caught" by a less skilled but similar sized combatant, and that's more likely in MMA with 4 oz gloves than in boxing where covering up with boxing gloves is an art in itself. Matt Serra over GSP is a good example of puncher's chance.

And I'd disagree that slamming or taking down a grappler with inferior wrestling is "grappler's chance." That's exploiting a hole in a grappler's game due to ruleset, if they have no experience or scoring incentive to land takedowns. A similarly sized white belt spaz has 0% chance of taking down or slamming a skilled Judoka or freestyle wrestler i.e. their A games.

I'm hard pressed to think of a single example of "grappler's chance" where a superior grappler "got caught" in his own game by a fluke sub, barring freak injury. Even if there are any, they are far less common than "puncher's chance" of which there are examples in MMA and surely many in boxing where the term originated.

 

[Esile]

A noob can scramble to get up from a takedown. Seen it in Gracie tapes.

Can you link it?

 

[Kforcer]

Defeating a more skilled but much smaller opponent via overwhelming size and strength isn't "puncher's chance" nor is it "grappler's chance." Bob Sapp over Ernesto Hoost x 2 wasn't puncher's chance, just like Brian Shaw tapping Poirier in a friendly roll wasn't "grappler's chance." Puncher's chance implies "getting caught" by a less skilled but similar sized combatant, and that's more likely in MMA with 4 oz gloves than in boxing where covering up with boxing gloves is an art in itself. Matt Serra over GSP is a good example of puncher's chance.

And I'd disagree that slamming or taking down a grappler with inferior wrestling is "grappler's chance." That's exploiting a hole in a grappler's game due to ruleset, if they have no experience or scoring incentive to land takedowns. A similarly sized white belt spaz has 0% chance of taking down or slamming a skilled Judoka or freestyle wrestler i.e. their A games.

I'm hard pressed to think of a single example of "grappler's chance" where a superior grappler "got caught" in his own game by a fluke sub, barring freak injury. Even if there are any, they are far less common than "puncher's chance" of which there are examples in MMA and surely many in boxing where the term originated.

I guess I've just had that experience where athletic, strong guys were spazzing out with me and put me in danger from trying to slam out of submissions or in one case, doing somersaults when I had their back in an attempt to dislodge me or maybe spike my head or something. A lot of that did come from the fact that I was in the role of instructor, trying to roll relatively gently with people who didn't really have a sense of control.

As far as a superior grappler being caught, I can think of times that has arguably happened. Koichiro Kimura was certainly a much better grappler than Todd Hays but he was caught with a guillotine, probably in part because he didn't expect that Hays would have the capacity to threaten him at all and in part because he was just overly desperate to get things on the ground. Kimura was a multi-time SAW champion, back when SAW was one of the only no-gi submission-grappling competitions in the world. I also think Minoru Suzuki could fairly be called a superior grappler to Bas Rutten and Bas caught him with a guillotine late in their match, after basically being manhandled for the duration and forced to give up a rope-escape at one point. Rumina Sato was definitely a better grappler than Joel Gershon but he was caught in an armbar.

I think perhaps people who have a more submission-heavy, scrambling "high risk" approach to submission grappling are naturally a little more open to that sort of thing. That's basically how I try to approach the game and that's probably part of why I've felt a little more vulnerable to things like slams at points, as opposed to if I decided to play a control-based game on people. I actually got slammed badly doing a flying scissor on a guy; I did it fairly gently, he held my weight and then basically fell down onto the mat, crashing atop me.

 

[mattemate]

Good points.
It's a hell of a concept, that if I'm good at doing a thing, I can beat someone who isn't good at it.
Chance comes in to play. I speak Japanese fluently. But some nerd might know a weird obscure word I don't. Judo guys will know plenty of words I don't. So if there's a one question Japanese quiz, maybe I would lose. But let us have a conversation, and it will be immediately obvious who knows more. Kind of a weird example but that's what I thought of.

 

[ChickenBrother]

I guess I've just had that experience where athletic, strong guys were spazzing out with me and put me in danger from trying to slam out of submissions or in one case, doing somersaults when I had their back in an attempt to dislodge me or maybe spike my head or something. A lot of that did come from the fact that I was in the role of instructor, trying to roll relatively gently with people who didn't really have a sense of control.

As far as a superior grappler being caught, I can think of times that has arguably happened. Koichiro Kimura was certainly a much better grappler than Todd Hays but he was caught with a guillotine, probably in part because he didn't expect that Hays would have the capacity to threaten him at all and in part because he was just overly desperate to get things on the ground. Kimura was a multi-time SAW champion, back when SAW was one of the only no-gi submission-grappling competitions in the world. I also think Minoru Suzuki could fairly be called a superior grappler to Bas Rutten and Bas caught him with a guillotine late in their match, after basically being manhandled for the duration and forced to give up a rope-escape at one point. Rumina Sato was definitely a better grappler than Joel Gershon but he was caught in an armbar.

I think perhaps people who have a more submission-heavy, scrambling "high risk" approach to submission grappling are naturally a little more open to that sort of thing. That's basically how I try to approach the game and that's probably part of why I've felt a little more vulnerable to things like slams at points, as opposed to if I decided to play a control-based game on people. I actually got slammed badly doing a flying scissor on a guy; I did it fairly gently, he held my weight and then basically fell down onto the mat, crashing atop me.

Those are interesting examples and are making me rethink my position. Rumina Sato/Joel Gerson practically seems like a grappling equivalent of GSP/Serra 1. That armbar seems to come out of nowhere - it's like Sato gave him the arm while inverted, after threatening subs off his back and forcing Gerson to disengage throughout the earlier part of the round. Gerson was apparently brown in both Judo and BJJ so certainly no slouch and was clearly the superior TD artist in this fight but Rumina Sato was... Rumina Sato.



https://www.grapplearts.com/joel-ge...he-greatest-upset-in-japanese-shooto-history/

I do think fast paced scrambles are inherently more risky than a control-based top pressure game because the same element of randomness is present as in puncher's chance. A freakishly athletic noob can use explosion to momentarily overwhelm a more skilled grappler just as he could explode into a wild haymaker on the feet. But old man top pressure is more effective at minimizing that randomness. If someone "gets caught" in grappling, I think it's generally going to be in a scramble, although the Rutten and Hays guillotines on Suzuki and Kimura are interesting. Both result from a poorly executed double leg (possibly due to exhaustion) that is defended, leading to a front headlock.

 

[Bullitt68]

This is an interesting topic. Some thoughts of mine:

John Danaher made the point that a fair inferior athlete and fighter can still win via KO with the so called punchers chance in a striking bout. Grappling offers no such opportunity. Everything is fully earned.

I will argue that it's quite the opposite. It's in striking where there truly is no randomness. You can't KO Lennox Lewis, Adesanya or Mayweather via punchers chance.. Line amateurs up.. It's not going to happen..

If you take a high level striker and put him up against any tough guy who never trained striking, not only can't he hurt the striker, he can't touch him.

I know from doing both arts that grappling is far more innate than striking. You will always suck doing sparring for the first time against a black belt in striking, but grappling, and wrestling in particular you can get by if you are talented and big enough. Any outcome: submission, slam, stalling is possible.

So danaher has deduced based on one punch KOs that striking is more random than grappling, when it's due to either one of two things. A) the better striker falls asleep on the switch. Overconfident, arrogant, or tired. He simply doesn't care.

Or
B) neither striker know what they are doing. And so the entire excercise is random.

This entire concept of punchers chance does not mean that you can RANDOMLY KO a World champion. An elite striker understands range. You won't even be in position to hit him, unless he lets you.

Same between intermediate and brawler.

First, your striking scenario is "any tough guy who never trained striking" but your grappling scenario is someone who is "talented." Is there no such thing as someone "talented" at striking even if they have "never trained in striking"? Second, grappling is not more innate than striking. Literally anyone can throw a punch, but not everyone can even lock up an effective choke, to say nothing of arm locks and leg locks.

It might also be useful to consider how MMA fighters like Gary Goodridge and Rampage went into K-1 and upset top guys like Mike Bernardo and Cyril Abidi, but K-1 fighters like Cro Cop and Peter Aerts didn't come to MMA and upset Nogueira or Shungo Oyama with submissions...they got submitted.

A noob can scramble to get up from a takedown. Seen it in Gracie tapes.

A noob can wing punches. I've never seen a noob wing an omoplata.

As far as a superior grappler being caught, I can think of times that has arguably happened. Koichiro Kimura was certainly a much better grappler than Todd Hays but he was caught with a guillotine, probably in part because he didn't expect that Hays would have the capacity to threaten him at all and in part because he was just overly desperate to get things on the ground. Kimura was a multi-time SAW champion, back when SAW was one of the only no-gi submission-grappling competitions in the world. I also think Minoru Suzuki could fairly be called a superior grappler to Bas Rutten and Bas caught him with a guillotine late in their match, after basically being manhandled for the duration and forced to give up a rope-escape at one point. Rumina Sato was definitely a better grappler than Joel Gershon but he was caught in an armbar.

We can add to this Jeremy Horn getting tapped by Ebenezer Fontes Braga, Masakatsu Funaki getting caught by Jason Delucia, and Manabu Yamada getting choked out by Bas Rutten. There are two interesting things about these examples, though. The first thing, you noted yourself:

I think perhaps people who have a more submission-heavy, scrambling "high risk" approach to submission grappling are naturally a little more open to that sort of thing. That's basically how I try to approach the game and that's probably part of why I've felt a little more vulnerable to things like slams at points, as opposed to if I decided to play a control-based game on people. I actually got slammed badly doing a flying scissor on a guy; I did it fairly gently, he held my weight and then basically fell down onto the mat, crashing atop me.

A "superior" grappler can open themself up to an "inferior" grappler, take a risk, and pay a price for it. The second thing is that "grappler's chance" as we're discussing it here has a lot to do with surprise. Bas Rutten is a deadly MT striker. Did Manabu Yamada really expect him to lock up such a slick arm-triangle from the bottom? Same thing with Gonzaga Cro Copping Cro Cop. Gonzaga is a beastly BJJ guy. Did Cro Cop really expect him to throw such a beautifully set-up and executed high kick? The thing about a puncher's chance is more often than not surprise is not a part of the equation. Put differently, most puncher's chance examples will not be like Gonzaga Cro Copping Cro Cop. Instead, they'll be more like Goodridge and Rampage throttling Bernardo and Abidi: They knew that they'd be striking, but they still got caught because when you're swinging heavy leather, it only takes one mistake and one shot. With grappler's chance, by contrast, it's more often than not entirely about the element of surprise. You're on the ground and you're assuming that the person is thinking only defense, or just trying to get back to their feet. You're not actually expecting to go sub for sub, otherwise you would've been better prepared, you would've been on the lookout for that arm-triangle or that kimura or what have you.

 

[JacJeanFinger]

Musashi miyamoto argued about swordsman's chance 4 centuries ago ”when the inferior one accepts his death and engages in mutual stabbing, he can overcome the technical difference and beat anyone at the cost of his own life.”

Puncher's chance is slimmer but it does exist.

In grappling, it's much harder for the inferior one to upset. Guillotine and leglocks can pull off miracles sometimes.

 

[maximus__]

John Danaher made the point that a fair inferior athlete and fighter can still win via KO with the so called punchers chance in a striking bout. Grappling offers no such opportunity. Everything is fully earned.

I will argue that it's quite the opposite. It's in striking where there truly is no randomness. You can't KO Lennox Lewis, Adesanya or Mayweather via punchers chance.. Line amateurs up.. It's not going to happen..

If you take a high level striker and put him up against any tough guy who never trained striking, not only can't he hurt the striker, he can't touch him.

I know from doing both arts that grappling is far more innate than striking. You will always suck doing sparring for the first time against a black belt in striking, but grappling, and wrestling in particular you can get by if you are talented and big enough. Any outcome: submission, slam, stalling is possible.

So danaher has deduced based on one punch KOs that striking is more random than grappling, when it's due to either one of two things. A) the better striker falls asleep on the switch. Overconfident, arrogant, or tired. He simply doesn't care.

Or
B) neither striker know what they are doing. And so the entire excercise is random.

This entire concept of punchers chance does not mean that you can RANDOMLY KO a World champion. An elite striker understands range. You won't even be in position to hit him, unless he lets you.

Same between intermediate and brawler.

You are wrong. We see it all the time in MMA, where the grappler KO's the striker, just by attacking them in a way they don't expect.
This isn't happening in a grappling match ever. The closest we have would be Ortega vs Yair as an example for a recent one.
Even striker vs striker Ngganou made a career of this.

 

[Bluesbreaker]

You are wrong. We see it all the time in MMA, where the grappler KO's the striker, just by attacking them in a way they don't expect.
This isn't happening in a grappling match ever. The closest we have would be Ortega vs Yair as an example for a recent one.
Even striker vs striker Ngganou made a career of this.

It's asinine to suggest it never happens in grappling. There are countless examples of guys falling into chokes during bad takedowns - ones the takedown defender wasn't even looking for.