Why John Danaher is wrong about randomness in striking and "punchers chance" compared to grappling

[meauneau]

Just because you have no chance to land a knockout blow against the most skilled boxers in the world (prime Mayweather, James Toney, Tyson, Klitschko, etc), in a boxing match, doesn't mean that you cannot land a knockout blow against someone who is more skilled than you but at least not as skilled as the elite boxers of the world in an MMA fight.

I am sure he was referring to MMA where there is even greater randomness and chaos due to there being more attacks. In this scenario the inferior striker can land a knockout blow on the superior fighter.

You could catch a world level grapple in a submission in MMA, but not in the mats. Or KO a world class striker in MMA but not in the ring.

You have to understand the context.

 

[Enclave]

First of all, no disrespect to the early Gracies, but those guys were not even close to the level of grappling that the fighters you listed are at in striking. d.

It doesn't matter what exact level. I've done KB rules sparring for 4 years. Anybody who came.in there, MA or not, who never sparred in their life, could not touch me. I had to let them.

 

[Enclave]

Just because you have no chance to land a knockout blow against the most skilled boxers in the world (prime Mayweather, James Toney, Tyson, Klitschko, etc), in a boxing match, doesn't mean that you cannot land a knockout blow against someone who is more skilled than you but at least not as skilled as the elite boxers of the world in an MMA fight.

I am sure he was referring to MMA where there is even greater randomness and chaos due to there being more attacks. In this scenario the inferior striker can land a knockout blow on the superior fighter.

You could catch a world level grapple in a submission in MMA, but not in the mats. Or KO a world class striker in MMA but not in the ring.

You have to understand the context.

Doesn't matter if it's MMA. The only way you can land on a much better striker is if he falls asleep.

Exact same reason you can take down a much better grappler down.

 

[meauneau]

Doesn't matter if it's MMA. The only way you can land on a much better striker is if he falls asleep.

Exact same reason you can take down a much better grappler down.

Define "false asleep". What does that even mean?

The fact that you can land on a much better striker in MMA proves Danaher's point.

 

[meauneau]

It doesn't matter what exact level. I've done KB rules sparring for 4 years. Anybody who came.in there, MA or not, who never sparred in their life, could not touch me. I had to let them.

This is BS.

You either run around in the ring or the gym you train in is not a competitive one.

I have trained in 4 countries, Spain, Netherlands, UK and Belgium. I sparred competitors both pro and amateur and even non competitors and you always will get touched.

 

[Enclave]

This is BS.

You either run around in the ring or the gym you train in is not a competitive one.

I have trained in 4 countries, Spain, Netherlands, UK and Belgium. I sparred competitors both pro and amateur and even non competitors and you always will get touched.

I never got touched by someone who came from no contact sparring clubs. So a grappler can forget about touching me, he doesn't even know how to strike.

 

[meauneau]

I never got touched by someone who came from no contact sparring clubs. So a grappler can forget about touching me, he doesn't even know how to strike.

A grappler can still close the distance on you. Depending on his size and if he is scared/timid or not. But again, you are comparing the top of the food chain in striking vs the lowest.

Danaher means in the context of MMA there can be chaotic exchanges where a punch can land and end the fight. There is no such thing in grappling. The only chaotic moments are scrambles and usually scrambles don't end in submission.

 

[Enclave]

A grappler can still close the distance on you. Depending on his size and if he is scared/timid or not. But again, you are comparing the top of the food chain in striking vs the lowest.

Danaher means in the context of MMA there can be chaotic exchanges where a punch can land and end the fight. There is no such thing in grappling. The only chaotic moments are scrambles and usually scrambles don't end in submission.

He said that a far inferior striker can win by KO which is nonsense.. A much inferior striker won't get to a chaotic exchange.

 

[meauneau]

He said that a far inferior striker can win by KO which is nonsense.. A much inferior striker won't get to a chaotic exchange.

They do happen though if you stop thinking of Mayweather vs Ben Askren or Canelo vs Khabib

 

[Enclave]

They do happen though if you stop thinking of Mayweather vs Ben Askren or Canelo vs Khabib

It's the easier for a Ngannou type to stall a wrestler, even choke him out or slam him, than it is for a grappler to KO a striker.

 

[meauneau]

It's the easier for a Ngannou type to stall a wrestler, even choke him out or slam him, than it is for a grappler to KO a striker.

In an MMA fight, probably. But in grappling he has 0 chance. Even the lighter guys would tap him out easy in a grappling match.

 

[Enclave]

In an MMA fight, probably. But in grappling he has 0 chance. Even the lighter guys would tap him out easy in a grappling match.

I have wrestled a wrestler under sumo rules (freestyle allowef) when I was 17. Ruled a No contest when I threw both of us out the ring. Put me in that same place against a striker and I have zero chance to do anything.

 

[Enclave]

. Even the lighter guys would tap him out easy in a grappling match.

No they wouldn't. Ngannou can lie down on the ground and offer his arm and they can't armbar him

It would be like a woman trying to submit me.

 

[Enclave]

 

[yetanother]

No they wouldn't. Ngannou can lie down on the ground and offer his arm and they can't armbar him

It would be like a woman trying to submit me.

A lot of the better female grapplers would actually submit you if you overed them an extended armbar.
If you pull at the right angle curling your way out gets way way harder.

 

[Enclave]

A lot of the better female grapplers would actually submit you if you overed them an extended armbar.
If you pull at the right angle curling your way out gets way way harder.

Cyborg is not doing anything to me. Neither is Ronda. I wouldn't give odds though. Females don't have fast twitch muscle fibers. They have actually better legs for kicking than men theoretically (more fat/mass) but lack strength to explode.

 

[ChickenBrother]

Those are interesting examples and are making me rethink my position. Rumina Sato/Joel Gerson practically seems like a grappling equivalent of GSP/Serra 1. That armbar seems to come out of nowhere - it's like Sato gave him the arm while inverted, after threatening subs off his back and forcing Gerson to disengage throughout the earlier part of the round. Gerson was apparently brown in both Judo and BJJ so certainly no slouch and was clearly the superior TD artist in this fight but Rumina Sato was... Rumina Sato.



https://www.grapplearts.com/joel-ge...he-greatest-upset-in-japanese-shooto-history/

@Kforcer I'm really interested in what exactly happened in this Gerson/Sato fight. It's a pretty good example of "grappler's chance" in MMA. IMO getting guillotined in MMA when you're exhausted, you try to panic wrestle and get stuffed and you just sit there gassed out in turtle while your opponent applies a front headlock is a different scenario. Fluffy Hernandez over Rudolfo Vieira is a prominent recent example. I had never even heard of Gerson (I remember some obscure matches from back in the day but I don't have the encyclopedic knowledge you and some others on this forum have).

Rogan mentioned this fight on his podcast a few years ago:

https://fb.watch/el94hZQddM/

I looked up Gerson and looks like he was a Canadian national level grappler and Judoka but not an elite competitor. To put the grappling skill disparity in context, Rumina Sato entered the 1998 Canadian Jiujitsu Championship a few months after the MMA loss, specifically hunting Gerson:



That's about as decisive as it gets. Sato doesn't pull guard or go for spinning shit as he did in their MMA fight earlier the same year. He just walks Gerson down, takes his back and beats his ass. Gerson literally has nothing for Sato here.

This might also illustrate the fallacy of attributing subs in MMA to "grappler's chance." MMA is a different ruleset and changes the positional dynamic entirely.

I'm still hard pressed to think of proper examples of "grappler's chance" in a grappling-only ruleset. An inferior competitor may sometimes get a flukey sweep or even a TD, but in general the superior grappler will almost always get the sub or win unless he comes into the match unprepared or doesn't take his opponent seriously. Eddie Bravo over Royler comes to mind, but that was an instance of Bravo introducing a different kind of game to an existing ruleset, and he was a bit of a one-hit wonder in that department, just as Gerson seems to have done in his MMA match with Sato.

 

[Enclave]

Martina Navratilova on men vs women athletically

“Simply reducing hormone levels — the prescription most sports have adopted — does not solve the problem. A man builds up muscle and bone density, as well as a greater number of oxygen-carrying red blood cells, from childhood. Training increases the discrepancy. Indeed, if a male were to change gender in such a way as to eliminate any accumulated advantage, he would have to begin hormone treatment before puberty. For me, that is unthinkable.”

 

[Enclave]

. Koichiro Kimura was certainly a much better grappler than Todd Hays but he was caught with a guillotine, probably in part because he didn't expect that Hays would have the capacity to threaten him at all

Same with striking. Lewis smiles, hands down, gets caught.

Rahman said about their rematch: Lennox was hard for me to hit, and I have much greater reach than Mike Tyson. I wish him (Tyson) all the luck trying to hit him"

 

[Enclave]

First, your striking scenario is "any tough guy who never trained striking" but your grappling scenario is someone who is "talented." Is there no such thing as someone "talented" at striking even if they have "never trained in striking"? .

Same problem. They don't understand range. Won't land anything unless they are in an elevator..